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Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators
Citations
Blog mentions
As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:- All bark but no bite? What does the yield curve tell us about growth?
by BankUnderground in Bank Underground on 2019-06-04 08:00:14
RePEc Biblio mentions
As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2011.
"An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95, January.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An econometric analysis of some models for constructed binary time series," CAMA Working Papers 2009-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," NCER Working Paper Series 39, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 02 Jul 2009.
- Gross, Marco, 2011. "Corporate bond spreads and real activity in the euro area - Least Angle Regression forecasting and the probability of the recession," Working Paper Series 1286, European Central Bank.
- Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010.
"New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
- Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
- Antonio Moreno & Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho, 2004. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," 2004 Meeting Papers 388, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno Ibáñez, Antonio, 2006. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 5956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno & Geert Bekaert, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Faculty Working Papers 04/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Chang, Xin & Chen, Yunling & Dasgupta, Sudipto, 2019. "Macroeconomic conditions, financial constraints, and firms’ financing decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 242-255.
- Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
- Ard den Reijer, 2006. "The Dutch business cycle: which indicators should we monitor?," DNB Working Papers 100, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Matteo Barigozzi & Lorenzo Trapani, 2018.
"Determining the dimension of factor structures in non-stationary large datasets,"
Discussion Papers
18/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
- Matteo Barigozzi & Lorenzo Trapani, 2018. "Determining the dimension of factor structures in non-stationary large datasets," Papers 1806.03647, arXiv.org.
- Naifar, Nader, 2011. "What explains default risk premium during the financial crisis? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 412-430, September.
- Luis E Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica M Arosemena, 2005.
"El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia,"
Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 79-101.
- Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica María Arosemena, 2003. "El tramo corto de la estructura a plazo como predictor de expectativas de la actividad económica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2559, Banco de la Republica.
- Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica María Arosemena, 2004. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 279, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Li, You & Tay, Anthony, 2021. "The role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in density forecast dispersion," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
- Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2020.
"Does business confidence matter for investment?,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1633-1665, October.
- Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2017. "Does Business Confidence Matter for Investment?," Carleton Economic Papers 17-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Mar 2019.
- Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013.
"Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers 595, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2014.
"Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 138-148.
- Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 02/2013, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
- Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 2013-05, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
- Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2023.
"Measuring International Uncertainty Using Global Vector Autoregressions with Drifting Parameters,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 770-793, April.
- Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Working Papers in Economics 2019-3, University of Salzburg.
- Michael Pfarrhofer, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Papers 1908.06325, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
- Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Gupta, Rangan & Risse, Marian & Volkman, David A. & Wohar, Mark E., 2019.
"The role of term spread and pattern changes in predicting stock returns and volatility of the United Kingdom: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test using over 250 years of data,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 391-405.
- Rangan Gupta & Marian Risse & David A. Volkman & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "The Role of Term Spread and Pattern Changes in Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility of the United Kingdom: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test Using Over 250 Years of Data," Working Papers 201755, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004.
"Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357.
- M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0202, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 11, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013.
"Probability and Severity of Recessions,"
Cahiers de recherche
1341, CIRPEE.
- Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-43, CIRANO.
- Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020.
"Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
- Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Working Papers 201732, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Expectations hypothesis in the context of debt crisis: Evidence from five major EU countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 243-258.
- Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2010.
"No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-182, November.
- Ruslan Bikbov & Mikhail Chernov, 2010. "No-arbitrage macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve," Post-Print hal-00732517, HAL.
- Hammami, Yacine & Lindahl, Anna, 2014. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with bank credit growth as a state variable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 14-28.
- Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002.
"This is what the leading indicators lead,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-80.
- Maximo Cosme Camacho Alonso & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This is What Leading Indicators Lead," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0202, Econometric Society.
- Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This Is What The Leading Indicators Lead," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 132, Society for Computational Economics.
- Camacho, Maximo & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 27, European Central Bank.
- Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
- René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2007.
"The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: an equilibrium‐based approach,"
Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 561-583, May.
- René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2007. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: an equilibrium-based approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 561-583, May.
- René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Staff Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada.
- Nimark, Kristoffer, 2008.
"Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1389-1400, November.
- Kristoffer Nimark, 2008. "Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market," Economics Working Papers 1181, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Layton, Allan P. & Katsuura, Masaki, 2001. "Comparison of regime switching, probit and logit models in dating and forecasting US business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 403-417.
- Giuseppe Marotta & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2005. "Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0504, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
- Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022.
"Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-22.
- Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers halshs-02549044, HAL.
- Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
- Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Signal Recessions? New Evidence from an International Panel Data Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 2013, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
- Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Quentin Lajaunie, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," Post-Print hal-03740235, HAL.
- Smimou, K., 2017. "Does gold Liquidity learn from the greenback or the equity?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 461-479.
- Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2006.
"Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR Models,"
Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 353-371.
- Ferrara, Laurent & Guégan, Dominique, 2005. "Detection of the industrial business cycle using SETAR models," MPRA Paper 4389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dominique Guegan & Laurent Ferrara, 2005. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR models," Post-Print halshs-00201309, HAL.
- Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002.
"A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
- Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Simon Gilchrist & Benoit Mojon, 2018.
"Credit Risk in the Euro Area,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 118-158, February.
- Gilchrist, S. & Mojon, B., 2014. "Credit Risk in the Euro area," Working papers 482, Banque de France.
- Simon Gilchrist & Benoît Mojon, 2014. "Credit Risk in the Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 20041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- George Athanassakos & Peter Carayannopoulos, 2001. "An empirical analysis of the relationship of bond yield spreads and macro economic factors," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 197-207.
- Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June.
- Christian Schulz, 2007. "Forecasting economic growth for Estonia : application of common factor methodologies," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-09, Bank of Estonia, revised 04 Sep 2007.
- Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018.
"Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
- António R. Antunes & Diana Bonfim & Nuno Monteiro & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2016. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," Working Papers w201613, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016.
"Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity,"
Working Papers
hal-04141569, HAL.
- Dalibor Stevanovic & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-36, CIRANO.
- Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-40, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Zeynep Senyuz, 2011.
"Factor analysis of permanent and transitory dynamics of the US economy and the stock market,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 975-998, September.
- Senyuz, Zeynep, 2009. "Factor Analysis of Permanent and Transitory Dynamics of the U.S. Economy and the Stock Market," MPRA Paper 26855, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2010.
- Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
- Pierre Guérin & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013.
"Markov-Switching MIDAS Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 45-56, January.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Markov-switching MIDAS models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8234, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Linton, Oliver & Mammen, Enno & Nielsen, Jans Perch & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2001.
"Yield curve estimation by kernel smoothing methods,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 185-223, November.
- Oliver Linton & Enno Mammen & Jens Perch Nielsen & C Tanggaard, 2000. "Yield Curve Estimation by Kernel Smoothing Methods," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 385, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Oliver B. Linton & Enno Mammen & J. Nielsen & Carsten Tanggaard, 2000. "Yield Curve Estimation by Kernel Smoothing Methods," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0235, Econometric Society.
- Linton, Oliver & Mammen, Enno & Perch Nielsen, Jens & Tanggaard, C, 2000. "Yield curve estimation by kernel smoothing methods," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2270, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Dungey, Mardi & Matei, Marius & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2020. "Examining stress in Asian currencies: A perspective offered by high frequency financial market data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
- Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2022. "Do Recessions Occur Concurrently Across Countries? A Multinomial Logistic Approach," Working Papers 2022:11, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018.
"Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
- Danielsson, Jon & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2016. "Learning from history: volatility and financial crises," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66046, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Danielsson, Jon & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2018. "Learning from history: volatility and financial crises," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91136, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Jón Daníelsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2016. "Learning from History : Volatility and Financial Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Danielsson, Jon & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2018. "Learning from history: volatility and financial crises," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118942, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
- Javier Gómez, 2007. "Changes in the Informational Content of the Spread: Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?," Faculty Working Papers 05/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- L. Baele & R. Vander Vennet & A. Van Landschoot, 2004. "Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/217, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Michael Dueker, 2005.
"Dynamic Forecasts of Qualitative Variables: A Qual VAR Model of U.S. Recessions,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 96-104, January.
- Michael J. Dueker, 2003. "Dynamic forecasts of qualitative variables: a Qual VAR model of U.S. recessions," Working Papers 2001-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Dueker(2005) JBES dynamic probit model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00049, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia, 2018. "The financial cycle and recession risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
- Michael J. Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2001. "European business cycles: new indices and analysis of their synchronicity," Working Papers 1999-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Somya Tyagi & Sikandar Siddiqui, 2017. "Yield Curve and Momentum Effects in Monthly U.S. Equity Returns: Some Nonparametric Evidence," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 4(2), pages 61-67.
- Franck Sédillot, 2001.
"La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?,"
Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
- Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l’information sur l’activité économique future ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
- Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
- Hamadi, Malika & Heinen, Andréas & Linder, Stefan & Porumb, Vlad-Andrei, 2016. "Does Basel II affect the market valuation of discretionary loan loss provisions?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 177-192.
- Parisi, Antonino & Parisi, Franco & Díaz, David, 2008. "Forecasting gold price changes: Rolling and recursive neural network models," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 477-487, December.
- Rodrigo Alfaro & Carlos García & Alejandro Jara & Helmut Franken, 2005.
"The bank lending channel in Chile,"
BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 128-45,
Bank for International Settlements.
- Rodrigo Alfaro & Helmut Franken & Carlos García & Alejandro Jara, 2004. "The Bank Lending Channel in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Antonio Ahumada & J. Rodrigo Fuentes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking Market Structure and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 4, pages 121-146, Central Bank of Chile.
- Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005.
"Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
- Ivan Paya & Agustín Duarte & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2004. "Predicting Real Growth And The Probability Of Recession In The Euro Area Using The Yield Spread," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-31, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Straetmans, S.T.M. & Candelon, B. & Ahmed, J., 2012.
"Predicting and capitalizing on stock market bears in the U.S,"
Research Memorandum
019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- Bertrand Candelon & Jameel Ahmed & Stefan Straetmans, 2014. "Predicting and Capitalizing on Stock Market Bears in the U.S," Working Papers 2014-409, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6407 is not listed on IDEAS
- Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2011.
"Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(3), pages 335-364, June.
- Ferrara, Laurent & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Working papers 239, Banque de France.
- Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2015.
"Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 116-133, March.
- Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2011. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in the U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," RCER Working Papers 564, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Sunoong Hwang & Yongsung Chang, 2011. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," 2011 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Paya, Ivan & Matthews, Kent & Peel, David, 2005. "The term spread and real economic activity in the US inter-war period," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 331-343, June.
- Dasgupta, Sudipto & Sengupta, Kunal, 2007. "Corporate liquidity, investment and financial constraints: Implications from a multi-period model," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 151-174, April.
- Kevin Aretz & David A. Peel, 2010. "Spreads versus professional forecasters as predictors of future output change," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 517-522.
- Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2020.
"Economic determinants of oil futures volatility: A term structure perspective,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
- Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2019. "Economic Determinants of Oil Futures Volatility: A Term Structure Perspective," Research Paper Series 401, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017.
"Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2015. "Common Cycles and Common Trends in the Stock and Oil markets: Evidence from More than 150 Years of Data," Working Papers 201572, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Chen, Sophia & Ranciere, Romain, 2019.
"Financial information and macroeconomic forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1160-1174.
- Sophia Chen & Mr. Romain Ranciere, 2016. "Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2016/251, International Monetary Fund.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Working Papers 21-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
- Gregory R. Duffee & Stephen D. Prowse, "undated".
"What's Good for GM...? Using Auto Industry Stock Returns to Forecast Business Cycles and Test the Q-Theory of Investment,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1996-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
- Gregory R. Duffee & Stephen D. Prowse, 1996. "What's good for GM...? Using auto industry stock returns to forecast business cycles and test the Q-theory of investment," Working Papers 9610, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Gregory R. Duffee & Stephen D. Prowse, 1996. "What's good for GM...? Using auto industry stock returns to forecast business cycles and test the Q-theory of investment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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