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On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Linh Tran Dieu, 2015. "A Comparison of Bank and Non-bank Funds in the French Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 273-294, June.
  2. Easaw, Joshy Z. & Garratt, Dean & Heravi, Saeed M., 2005. "Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 517-532, September.
  3. Frank, Murray Z. & Nezafat, Mahdi, 2019. "Testing the credit-market-timing hypothesis using counterfactual issuing dates," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 187-207.
  4. Charles Cao & Grant Farnsworth & Hong Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Hedge Fund Startups: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1427-1469, June.
  5. Erik Theissen & Mario Greifzu, 1998. "Performance deutscher Rentenfonds," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 50(5), pages 436-461, May.
  6. Nicolosi, Gina & Peng, Liang & Zhu, Ning, 2009. "Do individual investors learn from their trading experience?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 317-336, May.
  7. Marwa Zouaoui, 2019. "Selectivity and Market Timing Ability of Fund Managers: Comparative Analysis of Islamic and Conventional HSBC Saudi Mutual Funds," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-19, September.
  8. Thonifho Pollen Muridili & Ruschelle Sgammini & Sune Ferreira-Schenk & John George Jansen van Rensburg & Daniel Mokatsanyane, 2022. "The Impact of Covid-19 on the Performance of Hedge Funds Compared to Mutual Funds in South Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 133-144, November.
  9. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2017. "Simple measures of market efficiency: A study in foreign exchange markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
  10. Michael Pinelis & David Ruppert, 2020. "Machine Learning Portfolio Allocation," Papers 2003.00656, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
  11. Eduardo Roca & Victor Wong, 2008. "An analysis of the sensitivity of Australian superannuation funds to market movements: a Markov regime switching approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 583-597.
  12. Butt, Prof. Khursheed A & Pandow, Bilal Ahmad, 2013. "An analysis into the Stock Selectivity skill of Indian Fund Managers," MPRA Paper 83500, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
  13. Basu, Anup K. & Huang-Jones, Jason, 2015. "The performance of diversified emerging market equity funds," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 116-131.
  14. Gallefoss, Kristoffer & Hansen, Helge Hoff & Haukaas, Eirik Solli & Molnár, Peter, 2015. "What daily data can tell us about mutual funds: Evidence from Norway," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 117-129.
  15. Jung‐Soon Shin & Minki Kim & Dongjun Oh & Tong Suk Kim, 2019. "Do hedge funds time market tail risk? Evidence from option‐implied tail risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 205-237, February.
  16. Kong, Dongmin & Zhao, Zhao, 2024. "Overseas exposures, global events, and mutual fund performance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 848-863.
  17. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2012. "Measuring investor sentiment with mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 363-382.
  18. Georges Hübner, 2005. "The Generalized Treynor Ratio," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 9(3), pages 415-435.
  19. Kee‐Hong Bae & Junesuh Yi, 2008. "The Impact of the Short‐Short Rule Repeal on the Timing Ability of Mutual Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7‐8), pages 969-997, September.
  20. Mahfooz Alam & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 2020. "Mutual fund managers’ market timing abilities: Indian evidence," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 342-354, July.
  21. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2008. "UK mutual fund performance: Skill or luck?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 613-634, September.
  22. Pirgaip, Burak & Arslan-Ayaydin, Özgür & Karan, Mehmet Baha, 2021. "Do Sukuk provide diversification benefits to conventional bond investors? Evidence from Turkey," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  23. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
  24. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "How costly is it to ignore breaks when forecasting the direction of a time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 411-425.
  25. Ding, Wenjie & Mazouz, Khelifa & Wang, Qingwei, 2021. "Volatility timing, sentiment, and the short-term profitability of VIX-based cross-sectional trading strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 42-56.
  26. Ferson, Wayne E., 2013. "Investment Performance: A Review and Synthesis," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 969-1010, Elsevier.
  27. Pu Shen, 2002. "Market timing strategies that worked," Research Working Paper RWP 02-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  28. Ding, Jing & Jiang, Lei & Liu, Xiaohui & Peng, Liang, 2023. "Nonparametric tests for market timing ability using daily mutual fund returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  29. Ching-Chuan Tsong, 2009. "Assessing the Accuracy of Event Forecasts," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 219-240, July.
  30. Joanna Olbryś, 2010. "Three-factor market-timing models with Fama and French’s spread variables," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 20(2), pages 91-106.
  31. IIZUKA Nobuo, 2013. "Predicting Business Cycle Phases by Professional Forecasters－ Are They Useful ?," ESRI Discussion paper series 305, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  32. Lahiri, Kajal & Peng, Huaming & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Testing the value of probability forecasts for calibrated combining," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 113-129.
  33. Giannikis, Dimitrios & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2011. "A Bayesian approach to detecting nonlinear risk exposures in hedge fund strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1399-1414, June.
  34. Paolo Colla & José M. Marín, 2010. "Performance evaluation in competitive REE models," Working Papers 2010-21, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
  35. Gianni Amisano & Roberto Savona, 2007. "Imperfect Predictability and Mutual Fund Dynamics: How Managers Use Predictors in Changing Systematic Risk," Working Papers 0706, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  36. Alain P. Chaboud & Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "An analysis of Japanese foreign exchange interventions, 1991-2002," Working Papers (Old Series) 0309, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  37. Zheng, Yao & Osmer, Eric & Zhang, Ruiyi, 2018. "Sentiment hedging: How hedge funds adjust their exposure to market sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 147-160.
  38. Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz & Felicio, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira, 2014. "Common Factors and the Exchange Rate: Results From the Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
  39. Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 467-488, July.
  40. Da, Zhi & Guo, Re-Jin & Jagannathan, Ravi, 2012. "CAPM for estimating the cost of equity capital: Interpreting the empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 204-220.
  41. Hasan F. Baklaci & William I-Wei Cheng & Jianing Zhang, 2024. "Performance Attributes of Environmental, Social, and Governance Exchange-Traded Funds," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(2), pages 307-334, June.
  42. Chang, C-L. & Hsu, S.-H. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "Asymmetric Risk Impacts of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  43. Grauer, Robert R. & Shen, Frederick C., 2000. "Do constraints improve portfolio performance?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1253-1274, August.
  44. Subrata K. Mitra & Abhishek Rohit, 2020. "Momentum Trading with the ℓ1‐Filter: Are the Markets Efficient?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 827-856, December.
  45. Luca Ghezzi, 2024. "Normal Asset Allocations and Their Statistical Properties," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-14, July.
  46. Blake, David & Caulfield, Tristan & Ioannidis, Christos & Tonks, Ian, 2014. "Improved inference in the evaluation of mutual fund performance using panel bootstrap methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 202-210.
  47. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2019. "Upside potential of hedge funds as a predictor of future performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 212-229.
  48. Richard Heaney & Terry Hallahan & Thomas Josev & Heather Mitchell, 2007. "Time-Changing Alpha? The Case of Australian International Mutual Funds," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(1), pages 95-112, June.
  49. Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 130-139.
  50. Yee Loon, 2011. "Model uncertainty, performance persistence and flows," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 153-205, February.
  51. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  52. Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai, 2013. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 597-635, April.
  53. Helmut Herwartz & Leonardo Morales-Arias, 2009. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of international stock return dynamics conditional on equilibrium pricing factors," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
  54. Kee-Hong Bae & Junesuh Yi, 2008. "The Impact of the Short-Short Rule Repeal on the Timing Ability of Mutual Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7-8), pages 969-997.
  55. Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1997. "A Model Selection Approach To Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models And Artificial Neural Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 540-550, November.
  56. Caporin, Massimiliano & Lisi, Francesco, 2013. "A Conditional Single Index model with Local Covariates for detecting and evaluating active portfolio management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 236-249.
  57. Pankaj Topiwala & Wei Dai, 2022. "Surviving Black Swans: The Challenge of Market Timing Systems," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-25, June.
  58. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Directional analysis of fiscal sustainability: Revisiting Domar's debt sustainability condition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 189-201.
  59. Zheng, Yao & Osmer, Eric & Bai, Yidan, 2021. "Timing market confidence in the Chinese domestic security market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 298-311.
  60. Jonathan Ingersoll & Ivo Welch, 2007. "Portfolio Performance Manipulation and Manipulation-proof Performance Measures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1503-1546, 2007 17.
  61. Rania HENTATI & Jean-Luc PRIGENT, 2010. "Structured Portfolio Analysis under SharpeOmega Ratio," EcoMod2010 259600073, EcoMod.
  62. Brahmadev Panda & Rudra Prasanna Mahapatra & Samson Moharana, 2015. "Myth of Equity Mutual Fund Performance," Vision, , vol. 19(3), pages 200-209, September.
  63. Anatolyev Stanislav, 2009. "Multi-Market Direction-of-Change Modeling Using Dependence Ratios," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.
  64. Mamdouh Medhat & Maik Schmeling, 2022. "Short-term Momentum," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1480-1526.
  65. François-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret, 2022. "Tracking market and non-traditional sources of risks in procyclical and countercyclical hedge fund strategies under extreme scenarios: a nonlinear VAR approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, December.
  66. Kalima, Bwalya & Gopane, Thabo, 2022. "Portfolio performance under dynamic systematic risk and conditional betas: The South African unit trust market," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 66, pages 85-98.
  67. Jiang, George J. & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2007. "Do mutual funds time the market? Evidence from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 724-758, December.
  68. Massimiliano Caporin & Grégory M. Jannin & Francesco Lisi & Bertrand B. Maillet, 2014. "A Survey On The Four Families Of Performance Measures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 917-942, December.
  69. Zhang, Junsheng & Peng, Zezhi & Zeng, Yamin & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Do big data mutual funds outperform?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  70. Tim Meyer, 2019. "On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 457-488, April.
  71. Markus Natter, 2018. "Options‐based benchmark indices—A review of performance and (in)appropriate measures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 271-288, February.
  72. Karen Benson & Philip Gray & Egon Kalotay & Judy Qiu, 2008. "Portfolio Construction and Performance Measurement when Returns are Non-Normal," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(3), pages 445-461, March.
  73. Malakhov, Alexey & Riley, Timothy B. & Yan, Qing, 2024. "Do hedge funds bet against beta?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1507-1525.
  74. Wang, Haoyu & Di, Junpeng & Yang, Zhaojun & Han, Qing, 2020. "Assessment of mutual fund performance based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 538(C).
  75. Aiken, Adam L. & Kilic, Osman & Reid, Sean, 2016. "Can hedge funds time global equity markets? Evidence from emerging markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 2-11.
  76. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-141, March-Apr.
  77. Sanaullah & Muhammad Shahbaz Khan & Dr. Amna Noor & Salleh Khan, 2021. "An Investigation of Market Timing Ability of Mutual Fund Managers in Pakistan," iRASD Journal of Management, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(1), pages 56-68, june.
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  79. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2021. "New testing approaches for mean–variance predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 516-538.
  80. Zheng, Yao & Osmer, Eric & Zu, Dingding, 2024. "Timing sentiment with style: Evidence from mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
  81. A. Sancetta & Satchell, S.E., 2002. "New Test Statistics for Market Timing with Application to Emerging markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0222, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  82. Jamie Alcock & Philip Gray, 2005. "Forecasting Stock Returns Using Model‐Selection Criteria," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 135-151, June.
  83. Hamid Baghestani, 2010. "Evaluating Blue Chip forecasts of the trade-weighted dollar exchange rate," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(24), pages 1879-1889.
  84. William N. Goetzmann & Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Jr. & Matthew I. Spiegel & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Sharpening Sharpe Ratios," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm29, Yale School of Management.
  85. Sherrill, D. Eli & Shirley, Sara E. & Stark, Jeffrey R., 2017. "Actively managed mutual funds holding passive investments: What do ETF positions tell us about mutual fund ability?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 48-64.
  86. Hentati-Kaffel, Rania, 2016. "Structured products under generalized kappa ratio," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 599-614.
  87. S. Pavithra & Parthajit Kayal, 2023. "A Study of Investment Style Timing of Mutual Funds in India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 49-72, March.
  88. McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  89. N. Kreander & R.H. Gray & D.M. Power & C.D. Sinclair, 2005. "Evaluating the Performance of Ethical and Non‐ethical Funds: A Matched Pair Analysis," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7‐8), pages 1465-1493, September.
  90. Chen, Yuhao & Kuang, Huan & Liang, Bing, 2024. "Managerial structure in the hedge fund industry," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
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  130. Sebastian Krimm & Hendrik Scholz & Marco Wilkens, 2012. "The Sharpe ratio's market climate bias: Theoretical and empirical evidence from US equity mutual funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(4), pages 227-242, August.
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  132. Fayssal Jamhamed & Franck Martin & Fabien Rondeau & Josué Thélissaint & Stéphane Tufféry, 2024. "Regime-Specific Dynamics and Informational Efficiency in Cryptomarkets: Evidence from Gaussian Mixture Models," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2024-13, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
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