IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/waeaar/321479.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Qualitative Forecast Evaluation: A Comparison of Two Performance Measures

Author

Listed:
  • McIntosh, Christopher
  • Dorfman, Jeffrey

Abstract

Agricultural producers and marketers often have access to several sets of forecasts on the same series. Decision makers must be able to evaluate the relative accuracy of the forecasts. The ability to evaluate whether a series will move up or down is important for series related to futures, options, other asset prices, and situations where processes can be modified according to changing economic conditions. A measure of qualitative forecast accuracy from Naik and Leuthold is compared to a probability-based measure developed by Henriksson and Merton. The Henriksson-Merton measure is shown to provide additional, and more accurate, information concerning a model's qualitative forecasting ability.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • McIntosh, Christopher & Dorfman, Jeffrey, 1991. "Qualitative Forecast Evaluation: A Comparison of Two Performance Measures," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 321479, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:waeaar:321479
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.321479
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/321479/files/giannini-misc-612.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.321479?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kling, John L, 1987. "Predicting the Turning Points of Business and Economic Time Series," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(2), pages 201-238, April.
    2. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    3. Cerchi, Marlene & Havenner, Arthur, 1988. "Cointegration and stock prices : The random walk on wall street revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 333-346.
    4. Gopal Naik & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1986. "A Note on Qualitative Forecast Evaluation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(3), pages 721-726.
    5. Jon A. Brandt & David A. Bessler, 1981. "Composite Forecasting: An Application with U.S. Hog Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(1), pages 135-140.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
    7. Kost, William E., 1980. "Model Validation And The Net Trade Model," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 32(2), pages 1-16, April.
    8. Peter M. Feather & Michael S. Kaylen, 1989. "Conditional Qualitative Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(1), pages 195-201.
    9. Michael S. Kaylen & Jon A. Brandt, 1988. "A Note on Qualitative Forecast Evaluation: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(2), pages 415-416.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beck, Thorsten & Silva-Buston, Consuelo & Wagner, Wolf, 2023. "The Economics of Supranational Bank Supervision," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 324-351, February.
    2. Wossen, Tesfamicheal & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Alene, Arega & Feleke, Shiferaw & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Manyong, Victor & Awotide, Bola Amoke, 2017. "Productivity and Welfare Effects of Nigeria's e-Voucher-Based Input Subsidy Program," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 251-265.
    3. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "A Test of Forecast Consistency Using USDA Livestock Price Forecasts," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19042, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    4. repec:ags:aaea22:335690 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Miquel Clar & Juan-Carlos Duque & Rosina Moreno, 2007. "Forecasting business and consumer surveys indicators-a time-series models competition," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2565-2580.
    6. Fu, Xiaolan & Mohnen, Pierre & Zanello, Giacomo, 2018. "Innovation and productivity in formal and informal firms in Ghana," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 315-325.
    7. Giacomo Zanello & Chittur S. Srinivasan & Bhavani Shankar, 2014. "Transaction Costs, Information Technologies, and the Choice of Marketplace among Farmers in Northern Ghana," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(9), pages 1226-1239, September.
    8. repec:ags:jrapmc:122314 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bellemare, Marc F., 2012. "As You Sow, So Shall You Reap: The Welfare Impacts of Contract Farming," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1418-1434.
    10. Coates, Jennifer & Patenaude, Bryan N. & Rogers, Beatrice Lorge & Roba, Alemzewed Challa & Woldetensay, Yitbarek Kidane & Tilahun, Addisalem Fikre & Spielman, Kathryn L., 2018. "Intra-household nutrient inequity in rural Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 82-94.
    11. Chu, Chia-Shang & Lu, Liping & Shi, Zhentao, 2009. "Pitfalls in market timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 123-126, June.
    12. Aubry, Mathilde & Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2014. "Semiconductor industry cycles: Explanatory factors and forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 221-231.
    13. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen & Xie, Ran, 2012. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-16, April.
    14. Byrne, Paul F., 2005. "Strategic interaction and the adoption of tax increment financing," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 279-303, May.
    15. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    16. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tara Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & L. Kitzinger, 2010. "Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(18), pages 2289-2297.
    2. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman Stekler, 2010. "Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 2010-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    3. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    4. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Do production managers predict turning points? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-8.
    5. Jung‐Soon Shin & Minki Kim & Dongjun Oh & Tong Suk Kim, 2019. "Do hedge funds time market tail risk? Evidence from option‐implied tail risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 205-237, February.
    6. Joanna Olbryś, 2010. "Three-factor market-timing models with Fama and French’s spread variables," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 20(2), pages 91-106.
    7. Lahiri, Kajal & Peng, Huaming & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Testing the value of probability forecasts for calibrated combining," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 113-129.
    8. Zheng, Yao & Osmer, Eric & Zhang, Ruiyi, 2018. "Sentiment hedging: How hedge funds adjust their exposure to market sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 147-160.
    9. Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 130-139.
    10. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Massimiliano Caporin & Grégory M. Jannin & Francesco Lisi & Bertrand B. Maillet, 2014. "A Survey On The Four Families Of Performance Measures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 917-942, December.
    12. Hamid Baghestani, 2010. "Evaluating Blue Chip forecasts of the trade-weighted dollar exchange rate," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(24), pages 1879-1889.
    13. S. Pavithra & Parthajit Kayal, 2023. "A Study of Investment Style Timing of Mutual Funds in India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 49-72, March.
    14. McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    15. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, April.
    16. Ludwig Chincarini, 2014. "The Impact of Quantitative Methods on Hedge Fund Performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(5), pages 857-890, November.
    17. Roberto Casarin & Andrea Piva & Loriana Pelizzon, 2008. "Italian Equity Funds: Efficiency and Performance Persistence," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 7-28, March.
    18. Fayssal Jamhamed & Franck Martin & Fabien Rondeau & Josué Thélissaint & Stéphane Tufféry, 2024. "Regime-Specific Dynamics and Informational Efficiency in Cryptomarkets: Evidence from Gaussian Mixture Models," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2024-13, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    19. Godfrey Charles-Cadogan, 2012. "Alpha Representation For Active Portfolio Management and High Frequency Trading In Seemingly Efficient Markets," Papers 1206.2662, arXiv.org.
    20. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:waeaar:321479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/waeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.