Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation
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- Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2013. "Confidence Bands for ROC Curves with Serially Dependent Data," Discussion Papers 13-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013.
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- Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2012. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Discussion Papers 12-09, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Bergmeir, Christoph & Costantini, Mauro & Benítez, José M., 2014. "On the usefulness of cross-validation for directional forecast evaluation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 132-143.
- Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2014. "Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 599-618.
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More about this item
Keywords
Directional forecasts; directional accuracy; forecast evaluation; testing independence; contingency tables; bootstrap;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ECM-2009-01-17 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2009-01-17 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2009-01-17 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2009-01-17 (Macroeconomics)
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