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Causality relationships between climate policy uncertainty, renewable energy stocks, and oil prices: a mixed-frequency causality analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Leila Hedhili Zaier

    (Université de Tunis)

  • Khaled Mokni

    (Université Internationale de Rabat
    Université de Sousse)

  • Ahdi Noomen Ajmi

    (Université de Manouba)

Abstract

This paper investigates the predictive relationships among climate policy uncertainty (CPU), oil prices, and renewable energy (RE) stock market returns, particularly highlighting the challenges posed by the varying data frequencies of these variables. The study utilizes a comprehensive dataset comprising monthly CPU, daily oil prices, and RE stock returns, sourced globally. By applying a mixed-frequency causality test (MFCT), the analysis reveals significant predictability across different time horizons, particularly highlighting the strong influence of oil prices on RE stock returns over short-term horizons, while CPU demonstrates a more pronounced effect over medium to long-term horizons. In contrast, the application of the classical Granger causality test on low-frequency (monthly) data indicates an insignificant relationship between CPU and RE stocks, suggesting that traditional models may overlook important predictive dynamics. The analysis was conducted using Matlab code, and the findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in designing effective climate policies and for investors in optimizing portfolio strategies and hedging against risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Leila Hedhili Zaier & Khaled Mokni & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2024. "Causality relationships between climate policy uncertainty, renewable energy stocks, and oil prices: a mixed-frequency causality analysis," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:futbus:v:10:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1186_s43093-024-00399-1
    DOI: 10.1186/s43093-024-00399-1
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    Keywords

    Climate policy uncertainty; Oil price; Renewable energy; Causality; Mixed frequency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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