IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/stapro/v80y2010i1p69-75.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing independence of two autocorrelated binary time series

Author

Listed:
  • Chou, Cheng
  • Chu, Chia-Shang J.

Abstract

Event forecast is a possibly autocorrelated binary time series. A new test for its timing ability is based on the correlation between the discrete autoregressions of the event forecast and the event time series. The new test outperforms the existing market timing tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Chou, Cheng & Chu, Chia-Shang J., 2010. "Testing independence of two autocorrelated binary time series," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 69-75, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:80:y:2010:i:1:p:69-75
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-7152(09)00355-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Elsinger, 2020. "Serial Correlation in Contingency Tables (Helmut Elsinger)," Working Papers 228, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    2. repec:wsi:acsxxx:v:21:y:2018:i:08:n:s0219525918500194 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chou, Cheng & Chu, Chia-Shang J., 2011. "Market timing: Recent development and a new test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 105-109, May.
    4. Damien Challet & R'emy Chicheportiche & Mehdi Lallouache & Serge Kassibrakis, 2016. "Statistically validated lead-lag networks and inventory prediction in the foreign exchange market," Papers 1609.04640, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ding, Jing & Jiang, Lei & Liu, Xiaohui & Peng, Liang, 2023. "Nonparametric tests for market timing ability using daily mutual fund returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Zheng, Yao & Osmer, Eric & Zhang, Ruiyi, 2018. "Sentiment hedging: How hedge funds adjust their exposure to market sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 147-160.
    3. Blake, David & Caulfield, Tristan & Ioannidis, Christos & Tonks, Ian, 2014. "Improved inference in the evaluation of mutual fund performance using panel bootstrap methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 202-210.
    4. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2019. "Upside potential of hedge funds as a predictor of future performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 212-229.
    5. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kee-Hong Bae & Junesuh Yi, 2008. "The Impact of the Short-Short Rule Repeal on the Timing Ability of Mutual Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7-8), pages 969-997.
    7. François-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret, 2022. "Tracking market and non-traditional sources of risks in procyclical and countercyclical hedge fund strategies under extreme scenarios: a nonlinear VAR approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, December.
    8. Sanaullah & Muhammad Shahbaz Khan & Dr. Amna Noor & Salleh Khan, 2021. "An Investigation of Market Timing Ability of Mutual Fund Managers in Pakistan," iRASD Journal of Management, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(1), pages 56-68, june.
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-042 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. S. Pavithra & Parthajit Kayal, 2023. "A Study of Investment Style Timing of Mutual Funds in India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 49-72, March.
    11. Rania HENTATI & Jean-Luc PRIGENT, 2010. "Structured Portfolio Analysis under SharpeOmega Ratio," EcoMod2010 259600073, EcoMod.
    12. Roberto Casarin & Andrea Piva & Loriana Pelizzon, 2008. "Italian Equity Funds: Efficiency and Performance Persistence," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 7-28, March.
    13. Dass, Nishant & Nanda, Vikram & Wang, Qinghai, 2013. "Allocation of decision rights and the investment strategy of mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 254-277.
    14. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    15. Mark T. Leung & An-Sing Chen, 2005. "Performance evaluation of neural network architectures: the case of predicting foreign exchange correlations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 403-420.
    16. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    17. Lars Hornuf & Gül Yüksel, 2022. "The Performance of Socially Responsible Investments: A Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 9724, CESifo.
    18. Droms, William G. & Walker, David A., 1996. "Mutual fund investment performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 347-363.
    19. Luis Ferruz & Fernando Muñoz & María Vargas, 2012. "Managerial Abilities: Evidence from Religious Mutual Fund Managers," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 105(4), pages 503-517, February.
    20. Julio A. Crego & Julio Gálvez, 2021. "Brexit: Cyclical dependence in market neutral hedge funds," Working Papers 2141, Banco de España.
    21. Chen, Li-Wen & Adams, Andrew & Taffler, Richard, 2013. "What style-timing skills do mutual fund “stars” possess?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 156-173.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:80:y:2010:i:1:p:69-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622892/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.