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Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts

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  • Masahiro Ashiya

    (Kobe University, Japan)

Abstract

Past literature casts doubt on the ability of long-term macroeconomic forecasts to predict the direction of change. We re-examine this issue using the Japanese GDP forecast data of 37 institutions, and find that their 16-month-ahead forecasts contain valuable information on whether the growth rate accelerates or not. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley _ Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiro Ashiya, 2006. "Are 16-month-ahead forecasts useful? A directional analysis of Japanese GDP forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 201-207.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:25:y:2006:i:3:p:201-207
    DOI: 10.1002/for.980
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    Cited by:

    1. Edda Claus, 2011. "Seven Leading Indexes of New Zealand Employment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 76-89, March.
    2. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-120.
    3. IIZUKA Nobuo, 2013. "Predicting Business Cycle Phases by Professional Forecasters－ Are They Useful ?," ESRI Discussion paper series 305, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Grant Allan, 2012. "Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth," Working Papers 1214, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    5. Y. Tsuchiya, 2014. "A directional evaluation of corporate executives' exchange rate forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 95-101, January.
    6. Blaskowitz, Oliver & Herwartz, Helmut, 2014. "Testing the value of directional forecasts in the presence of serial correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 30-42.
    7. Blaskowitz, Oliver J. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2008. "Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-073, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. Siddons, Craig & Allan, Grant & McIntyre, Stuart, 2015. "How accurate are forecasts of costs of energy? A methodological contribution," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 224-228.
    9. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 167-174.
    10. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-073 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Masahiro Ashiya, 2003. "The directional accuracy of 15-months-ahead forecasts made by the IMF," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 331-333.
    12. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2012. "Is the Purchasing Managers' Index useful for assessing the economy's strength? A directional analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1302-1311.
    13. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Do production managers predict turning points? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-8.
    14. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2014. "Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 599-618.

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