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Market Timing with Moving Averages

Author

Listed:
  • Jukka Ilomäki

    (Faculty of Management, University of Tampere, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland)

  • Hannu Laurila

    (Faculty of Management, University of Tampere, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Department of Finance, Asia University, Taichung City 413, Taiwan
    Discipline of Business Analytics University of Sydney Business School, Sydney NSW 2006, Australia
    Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, 3062 PA Rotterdam, The Netherlands
    Department of Economic Analysis and ICAE, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

Consider using the simple moving average (MA) rule of Gartley to determine when to buy stocks, and when to sell them and switch to the risk-free rate. In comparison, how might the performance be affected if the frequency is changed to the use of MA calculations? The empirical results show that, on average, the lower is the frequency, the higher are average daily returns, even though the volatility is virtually unchanged when the frequency is lower. The volatility from the highest to the lowest frequency is about 30% lower as compared with the buy-and-hold strategy volatility, but the average returns approach the buy-and-hold returns when frequency is lower. The 30% reduction in volatility appears if we invest randomly half the time in stock markets and half in the risk-free rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Market Timing with Moving Averages," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-25, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:7:p:2125-:d:153797
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    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Long Run Returns Predictability and Volatility with Moving Averages," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Luigi Buzzacchi & Luca Ghezzi, 2021. "The Odds of Profitable Market Timing," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, June.
    3. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Market Timing with Moving Averages for Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Stocks," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-24, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    4. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Moving Average Market Timing in European Energy Markets: Production Versus Emissions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-24, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    market timing; moving averages; risk-free rate; returns and volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • D23 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Organizational Behavior; Transaction Costs; Property Rights

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