IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedkrw/99-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do the spreads between the E/P ratio and interest rates contain information on future equity market movements?

Author

Listed:
  • Doug Rolph
  • Pu Shen

Abstract

We examine the usefulness of the spreads between the e/p ratio of the S&P 500 index and the yields on 3-month and 10-year Treasury securities as indicators of future market conditions. We find that while spreads are not particularly useful in a regression framework, the extreme values of the spreads do contain information on the market outlook. Specifically, for the period of 1967 to 1997, portfolios that only invested in the stock index when the spreads were above their historical tenth percentile levels produced higher average returns (not statistically significant) and lower variances (statistically significant) than the stock index.

Suggested Citation

  • Doug Rolph & Pu Shen, 1999. "Do the spreads between the E/P ratio and interest rates contain information on future equity market movements?," Research Working Paper 99-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:99-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/5274/pdf-rwp99-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Chan, Louis K C & Hamao, Yasushi & Lakonishok, Josef, 1991. "Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1739-1764, December.
    3. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    4. Basu, Sanjoy, 1983. "The relationship between earnings' yield, market value and return for NYSE common stocks : Further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 129-156, June.
    5. Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
    6. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-1228, September.
    7. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    8. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:135-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pu Shen, 2002. "Market timing strategies that worked," Research Working Paper RWP 02-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    2. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    3. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Estrategias Cuantitativas De Valor Y Retornos Por Accion De Largo," Finance 0503029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. David R Gallagher & Peter A Gardner & Camille H Schmidt, 2015. "Style factor timing: An application to the portfolio holdings of US fund managers," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(2), pages 318-350, May.
    5. Schnaubelt, Matthias & Seifert, Oleg, 2020. "Valuation ratios, surprises, uncertainty or sentiment: How does financial machine learning predict returns from earnings announcements?," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 04/2020, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    6. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    7. S. Pavithra & Parthajit Kayal, 2023. "A Study of Investment Style Timing of Mutual Funds in India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 49-72, March.
    8. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    9. Amit Hedau, 2020. "Value Investing: Evidence From Listed Construction And Infrastucture Sector Companies In India," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 15(4), pages 104-114, december.
    10. Tanveer Ahmad; Syed Muhammad Amir Shah, 2017. "The Value-Growth Indicators and Value Premium: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," South Asian Journal of Management Sciences (SAJMS), Iqra University, Iqra University, vol. 11(2), pages 124-139, Fall.
    11. Merdad, Hesham Jamil & Kabir Hassan, M. & Hippler, William J., 2015. "The Islamic risk factor in expected stock returns: an empirical study in Saudi Arabia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-314.
    12. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "The Cross Section of Common Stock Returns: A Review of the Evidence and Some New Findings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    13. Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Financial Asset Returns, Market Timing, and Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-02, CIRANO.
    14. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2006. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(8), pages 1273-1287, August.
    15. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    16. Keith Anderson & Chris Brooks, 2005. "The Long-Term P/E Radio," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2005-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    17. Ding, David K. & Chua, Jia Leng & Fetherston, Thomas A., 2005. "The performance of value and growth portfolios in East Asia before the Asian financial crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 185-199, March.
    18. Aníbal Báez-Díaz & Pervaiz Alam, 2013. "Tax conformity of earnings and the pricing of accruals," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 509-538, April.
    19. Da, Zhi & Guo, Re-Jin & Jagannathan, Ravi, 2012. "CAPM for estimating the cost of equity capital: Interpreting the empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 204-220.
    20. Zaremba Adam & Konieczka Przemysław, 2017. "Size, Value, and Momentum in Polish Equity Returns: Local or International Factors?," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 53(3), pages 26-47, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Stock market;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:99-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zach Kastens (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbkcus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.