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Predictability of the simple technical trading rules: An out‐of‐sample test

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  • Jiali Fang
  • Ben Jacobsen
  • Yafeng Qin

Abstract

In a true out‐of‐sample test based on fresh data we find no evidence that several well‐known technical trading strategies predict stock markets over the period of 1987 to 2011. Our test safeguards against sample selection bias, data mining, hindsight bias, and other usual biases that may affect results in our field. We use the exact same technical trading rules that Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) showed to work best in their historical sample. Further analysis shows that this poor out‐of‐sample performance most likely is not due to the market becoming more efficient – instantaneously or gradually over time – but probably a result of bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiali Fang & Ben Jacobsen & Yafeng Qin, 2014. "Predictability of the simple technical trading rules: An out‐of‐sample test," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(1), pages 30-45, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:23:y:2014:i:1:p:30-45
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rfe.2013.05.004
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    7. C. Veeramani & R. Venugopal & S. Muruganandan, 2023. "An Exploration of the Fuzzy Inference System for the Daily Trading Decision and Its Performance Analysis Based on Fuzzy MCDM Methods," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(3), pages 1313-1340, October.
    8. Luís Lobato Macedo & Pedro Godinho & Maria João Alves, 2020. "A Comparative Study of Technical Trading Strategies Using a Genetic Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 349-381, January.
    9. Shan Wang & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Sai-Ping Li & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2015. "Testing the performance of technical trading rules in the Chinese market," Papers 1504.06397, arXiv.org.
    10. Konstandinos Chourmouziadis & Dimitra K. Chourmouziadou & Prodromos D. Chatzoglou, 2021. "Embedding Four Medium-Term Technical Indicators to an Intelligent Stock Trading Fuzzy System for Predicting: A Portfolio Management Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1183-1216, April.
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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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