IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecorec/v81y2005i253p135-151.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Stock Returns Using Model‐Selection Criteria

Author

Listed:
  • JAMIE ALCOCK
  • PHILIP GRAY

Abstract

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model‐selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio‐switching strategy is implemented according to model predictions. Relative to a buy‐and‐hold market investment, the returns to the portfolio‐switching strategy are impressive under several model‐selection criteria, even after accounting for transaction costs. However, as these findings are not robust across other model‐selection criteria examined, it is difficult to conclude that the degree of return predictability is economically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamie Alcock & Philip Gray, 2005. "Forecasting Stock Returns Using Model‐Selection Criteria," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 135-151, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:81:y:2005:i:253:p:135-151
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2005.00239.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2005.00239.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2005.00239.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Walter Boudry & Philip Gray, 2003. "Assessing the Economic Significance of Return Predictability: A Research Note," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1305-1326.
    2. repec:bla:ecorec:v:73:y:1997:i:222:p:258-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    4. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 23(Q III), pages 36-58.
    5. Walter Boudry & Philip Gray, 2003. "Assessing the Economic Significance of Return Predictability: A Research Note," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(9‐10), pages 1305-1326, December.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    7. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    8. Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What Do We Learn?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 405-428.
    9. Robert Faff & Richard Heaney, 1999. "An examination of the relationship between Australian industry equity returns and expected inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 915-933.
    10. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    11. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    12. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    13. McGuckin, Robert H. & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Zarnowitz, Victor, 2007. "A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 110-120, January.
    14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    15. Allan P. Layton, 1997. "Do Leading Indicators Really Predict Australian Business Cycle Turning Points?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(222), pages 258-269, September.
    16. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-1228, September.
    17. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    18. Ball, Ray, 1978. "Anomalies in relationships between securities' yields and yield-surrogates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 103-126.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christian Pierdzioch & Marian Risse & Sebastian Rohloff, 2016. "Fluctuations of the real exchange rate, real interest rates, and the dynamics of the price of gold in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1481-1499, December.
    2. Christian Pierdzioch & Daniel Hartmann, 2013. "Forecasting Eurozone real-estate returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1185-1196, July.
    3. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2014. "The international business cycle and gold-price fluctuations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 292-305.
    4. Jurdi, Doureige J., 2022. "Predicting the Australian equity risk premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Yiwen (Paul) Dou & David R. Gallagher & David Schneider & Terry S. Walter, 2012. "Out-of-sample stock return predictability in Australia," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(3), pages 461-479, December.
    6. Philip Gray, 2008. "Economic significance of predictability in Australian equities," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 48(5), pages 783-805, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philip Gray, 2008. "Economic significance of predictability in Australian equities," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 48(5), pages 783-805, December.
    2. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1413, August.
    3. John Powell & Jing Shi & Tom Smith & Robert Whaley, 2009. "Common Divisors, Payout Persistence, and Return Predictability," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 335-357, December.
    4. Jurdi, Doureige J., 2022. "Predicting the Australian equity risk premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    6. Zakamulin, Valeriy, 2013. "Forecasting the size premium over different time horizons," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1061-1072.
    7. Puneet Handa, 2006. "Does Stock Return Predictability Imply Improved Asset Allocation and Performance? Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market (1954–2002)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2423-2468, September.
    8. Yao, Juan & Alles, Lakshman, 2006. "Industry return predictability, timing and profitability," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 122-141, April.
    9. Kadilli, Anjeza, 2015. "Predictability of stock returns of financial companies and the role of investor sentiment: A multi-country analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 26-45.
    10. Xia, Yihong, 2000. "Learning About Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3167f8mz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    11. Demetrescu, Matei & Georgiev, Iliyan & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2022. "Testing for episodic predictability in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 85-113.
    12. Barnhart, Scott W. & Giannetti, Antoine, 2009. "Negative earnings, positive earnings and stock return predictability: An empirical examination of market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 70-86, January.
    13. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Stock return forecasting: Some new evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 38-51.
    14. João M. Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2019. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the Euro Area, the US and the UK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 139-176, June.
    15. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    16. Michael Cooper & Huseyin Gulen, 2006. "Is Time-Series-Based Predictability Evident in Real Time?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1263-1292, May.
    17. Daniel Mantilla-García & Vijay Vaidyanathan, 2017. "Predicting stock returns in the presence of uncertain structural changes and sample noise," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(3), pages 357-391, August.
    18. Cooper, Michael J. & Gubellini, Stefano, 2011. "The critical role of conditioning information in determining if value is really riskier than growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-305, March.
    19. Connie Becker & Wayne Ferson & David Myers & Michael Schill, 1998. "Conditional Market Timing with Benchmark Investors," NBER Working Papers 6434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:81:y:2005:i:253:p:135-151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.