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Momentum Crashes

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  • Kent Daniel
  • Tobias J. Moskowitz

Abstract

Despite their strong positive average returns across numerous asset classes, momentum strategies can experience infrequent and persistent strings of negative returns. These momentum crashes are partly forecastable. They occur in "panic" states - following market declines and when market volatility is high - and are contemporaneous with market rebounds. We show that the low ex-ante expected returns in panic states are consistent with a conditionally high premium attached to the option-like payoffs of past losers. An implementable dynamic momentum strategy based on forecasts of momentum's mean and variance approximately doubles the alpha and Sharpe Ratio of a static momentum strategy, and is not explained by other factors. These results are robust across multiple time periods, international equity markets, and other asset classes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kent Daniel & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2014. "Momentum Crashes," NBER Working Papers 20439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20439
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    Cited by:

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    3. Lin, Chaonan & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Feng, Zhi-Xiang & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2016. "Market dynamics and momentum in the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 59-75.
    4. Kai Li & Jun Liu, 2016. "Reversing Momentum: The Optimal Dynamic Momentum Strategy," Research Paper Series 370, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Weber, Michael, 2018. "Cash flow duration and the term structure of equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 486-503.
    6. Chen, Zhuo & Lu, Andrea, 2017. "Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 98-108.
    7. Fan, Minyou & Li, Youwei & Liu, Jiadong, 2018. "Risk adjusted momentum strategies: A comparison between constant and dynamic volatility scaling approaches," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 131-140.
    8. Muhammad A. Cheema & Gilbert V. Nartea & Yimei Man, 2018. "Cross‐Sectional and Time Series Momentum Returns and Market States," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 705-715, December.
    9. Chen, Shu-Hsiu, 2017. "Carry trade strategies based on option-implied information: Evidence from a cross-section of funding currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-20.
    10. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    11. Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2018. "Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 739-774, September.
    12. Butt, Hilal Anwar & Virk, Nader Shahzad, 2017. "Momentum profits and time varying illiquidity effect," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 253-259.
    13. Joachim Freyberger & Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2020. "Dissecting Characteristics Nonparametrically," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2326-2377.
    14. Zaremba, Adam & Czapkiewicz, Anna, 2017. "The cross section of international government bond returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 171-183.
    15. Andrei S. Gonçalves & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2017. "Does the Investment Model Explain Value and Momentum Simultaneously?," NBER Working Papers 23910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. repec:cuf:journl:y:2017:v:18:i:1:lobao is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Cheema, Muhammad A. & Nartea, Gilbert V., 2017. "Momentum, idiosyncratic volatility and market dynamics: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA), pages 109-123.
    18. Mario Cerrato & Zhekai Zhang, 2019. "Can we predict currency momentum crashes?," Working Papers 2019_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    19. Teplova, Tamara & Mikova, Evgeniya & Nazarov, Nikolai, 2017. "Stop losses momentum strategy: From profit maximization to risk control under White’s Bootstrap Reality Check," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 240-258.
    20. Markus Leippold & Roger Rueegg, 2018. "The mixed vs the integrated approach to style investing: Much ado about nothing?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(5), pages 829-855, November.
    21. Avramov, Doron & Hore, Satadru, 2017. "Cross-sectional factor dynamics and momentum returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 69-96.
    22. Victoria Dobrynskaya, 2017. "Dynamic Momentum and Contrarian Trading," HSE Working papers WP BRP 61/FE/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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