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Surviving Black Swans: The Challenge of Market Timing Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Pankaj Topiwala

    (FastVDO LLC, 3097 Cortona Dr., Melbourne, FL 32940, USA)

  • Wei Dai

    (FastVDO LLC, 3097 Cortona Dr., Melbourne, FL 32940, USA)

Abstract

It is an open secret that most investment funds actually underperform the market. Yet, millions of individual investors fare even worse, barely treading water. Algorithmic trading is now so common, it accounts for over 80% of all trades and is the domain of professionals. Can it also help the small investor? Individual investors are advised to buy-and-hold an index fund or a balanced portfolio including stocks, bonds, and cash equivalents. That would ensure market performance. However, market indices also occasionally have deep drawdowns (such as the devastating market crash of 1929 and other so-called Black Swan events). In contrast to received wisdom, we argue with evidence from backtesting on major U.S. market indices, as well as some select stocks that simple ideas in rule-based market timing can in fact be useful. One can not only obtain good results, but outperform market indices, while, at the same time, reducing deep drawdowns, surviving Black Swan events.

Suggested Citation

  • Pankaj Topiwala & Wei Dai, 2022. "Surviving Black Swans: The Challenge of Market Timing Systems," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-25, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:7:p:280-:d:847049
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    2. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
    3. Chen, Yong & Liang, Bing, 2007. "Do Market Timing Hedge Funds Time the Market?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 827-856, December.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pankaj Topiwala, 2023. "Surviving Black Swans III: Timing US Sector Funds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Pankaj Topiwala, 2023. "Surviving Black Swans II: Timing the 2020–2022 Roller Coaster," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-26, February.
    3. ChanKyu Paik & Jinhee Choi & Ivan Ureta Vaquero, 2024. "Algorithm-Based Low-Frequency Trading Using a Stochastic Oscillator, Williams%R, and Trading Volume for the S&P 500," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-20, November.
    4. Chan Kyu Paik & Jinhee Choi & Ivan Ureta Vaquero, 2024. "Algorithm-Based Low-Frequency Trading Using a Stochastic Oscillator and William%R: A Case Study on the U.S. and Korean Indices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-18, February.

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