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Upside potential of hedge funds as a predictor of future performance

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  • Bali, Turan G.
  • Brown, Stephen J.
  • Caglayan, Mustafa O.

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between upside potential and future hedge fund returns. We measure upside potential based on the maximum monthly returns of hedge funds (MAX) over a fixed time interval, and show that MAX successfully predicts cross-sectional differences in future fund returns. Hedge funds with strong upside potential generate 0.70% per month higher average returns than funds with weak upside potential. After controlling for alternative risk and performance measures, funds’ market-timing ability, and a large set of fund characteristics, the positive link between MAX and future returns remains highly significant. We conclude that MAX, as a simple proxy for realized noln-normalities in hedge funds, offers incremental information on future hedge fund returns above and beyond provided by standard risk, performance, and market-timing measures.

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  • Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2019. "Upside potential of hedge funds as a predictor of future performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 212-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:98:y:2019:i:c:p:212-229
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.11.003
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    2. Elisa Becker‐Foss, 2024. "Performance and reporting predictability of hedge funds," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2257-2278, September.
    3. Papathanasiou, Spyros & Vasiliou, Dimitrios & Magoutas, Anastasios & Koutsokostas, Drosos, 2022. "Do hedge and merger arbitrage funds actually hedge? A time-varying volatility spillover approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    4. George O. Aragon & Ji-Woong Chung & Byoung Uk Kang, 2023. "Do Prime Brokers Matter in the Search for Informed Hedge Fund Managers?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(8), pages 4932-4952, August.
    5. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikolaos Voukelatos, 2022. "Should hedge funds deviate from the benchmark?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 767-795, September.
    6. Gupta, Nilesh & Mishra, Anil V & Jacob, Joshy, 2022. "Prospect theory preferences and global mutual fund flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedge funds; Upside potential; Return predictability; JEL classification:; G10; G11; C13;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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