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Travis John Berge

Citations

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Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions (AEJ:MA 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Alessandro Barbarino & Travis J. Berge & Han Chen & Andrea Stella, 2020. "Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2023. "Trends and cycles during the COVID-19 pandemic period," Working Papers w202311, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Morley, James & Rodríguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2023. "Estimating the euro area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    5. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.

  2. Berge, T. & De Ridder, M. & Pfajfar, D., 2020. "When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2041, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    Cited by:

    1. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Michele Capriati, 2024. "Government spending, multipliers, and public debt sustainability: an empirical assessment for OECD countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 521-542, July.
    2. Abdul Jalil, 2021. "Austerity: Which Way Now?," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2021:21, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    3. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
    4. Dennis Bonam & Paul Konietschke, 2020. "Tax multipliers across the business cycle," Working Papers 699, DNB.
    5. Jorge Pablo Puig & Martin Ardanaz & Eduardo Cavallo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2021. "Output effects of fiscal consolidations: does spending composition matter?," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4507, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    6. Maarten De Ridder & Simona Hannon & Damjan Pfajfar, 2020. "The Multiplier Effect of Education Expenditure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Borgo Julián, 2024. "El multiplicador fiscal en Argentina. Evaluando la relevancia del contexto macroeconómico," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4712, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.

  3. Travis J. Berge & Damjan Pfajfar, 2019. "Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Travis J. Berge & Maarten De Ridder & Damjan Pfajfar, 2020. "When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Gabriel Zsurkis, 2020. "The expected time to cross a threshold and its determinants: A simple and flexible framework," Working Papers w202006, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

  4. Travis J. Berge & Andrew C. Chang & Nitish R. Sinha, 2019. "Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2023. "Raiders of the lost high‐frequency forecasts: New data and evidence on the efficiency of the Fed's forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 88-104, January.
    2. Bennett Schmanski & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2023. "Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Travis J. Berge, 2023. "Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1191-1206, September.
    4. Jochen Güntner, 2020. "Central bank information and private-sector Expectations," Economics working papers 2020-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    5. Niklas Valentin Lehmann, 2023. "Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts," Papers 2312.09081, arXiv.org.
    6. Engelke, Carola & Heinisch, Katja & Schult, Christoph, 2019. "How forecast accuracy depends on conditioning assumptions," IWH Discussion Papers 18/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

  5. Travis J. Berge, 2017. "Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2018. "Households’ Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: Survey Evidence from New Zealand," ifo Working Paper Series 255, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Cambara, Leilane de Freitas Rocha & Meurer, Roberto & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2022. "Deviating from full rationality but not from theoretical consistency: The behavior of inflation expectations in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 492-501.
    3. Tomasz Łyziak & Xuguang Sheng, 2018. "Disagreement in consumer inflation expectations," NBP Working Papers 278, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    4. Chris Campos & Michael McMain & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2022. "Understanding Which Prices Affect Inflation Expectations," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2022(06), pages 1-7, April.
    5. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Forecasting Inflation with a Zero Lower Bound or Negative Interest Rates: Evidence from Point and Density Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 9687, CESifo.
    6. Leilane de Freitas Rocha Cambara & Roberto Meurer, Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2019. "Deviating from Perfect Foresight but not from Theoretical Consistency: The Behavior of Inflation Expectations in Brazil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_36, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    7. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2021. "Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(19), pages 1-7, October.
    8. Kladivko, Kamil & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Can Households Predict where the Macroeconomy is Headed?," Working Papers 2020:11, Örebro University, School of Business.
    9. Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2024. "Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequencies Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(4), pages 811-832, August.
    10. Alessandro Barbarino & Travis J. Berge & Han Chen & Andrea Stella, 2020. "Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Oinonen, Sami & Vilmi, Lauri, 2021. "Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve," BoF Economics Review 5/2021, Bank of Finland.
    12. Mayukh Dass & Masoud Moradi & Fereshteh Zihagh, 2023. "Forecasting purchase rates of new products introduced in existing categories," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(3), pages 385-408, September.
    13. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    14. Roedl, Marianne & Dupont, Genevieve, 2020. "Monetary policy implications of the COVID-19 outbreak, the social pandemic," MPRA Paper 99981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2024. "Do Central Bank Communications Influence Survey of Professional Forecasters? An Empirical Investigation," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 12(1), pages 100-112, January.
    16. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta & Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Silva, 2018. "Forecasting Changes of Economic Inequality: A Boosting Approach," Working Papers 201868, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2024. "Enhancing forecast accuracy through frequencydomain combination: Applications to financial and economic indicators," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2024, Bank of Finland.
    18. Lake, A., 2020. "Optimal Feasible Expectations in Economics and Finance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20105, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Karolina Tura-Gawron & Maria Siranova & Karol Fisikowski, 2018. "ARE CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AN INTERNATIONAL PHENOMENON? Results of spatial panel regressions models," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 50, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.

  6. Travis J. Berge & Nitish R. Sinha & Michael Smolyansky, 2016. "Which Market Indicators Best Forecast Recessions?," FEDS Notes 2016-08-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, Alyssa Gray, 2019. "Ambiguity in securitization markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 231-255.

  7. Travis J. Berge, 2013. "Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle," Research Working Paper RWP 13-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Cheng, Han-Liang, 2020. "A Study of Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy in Taiwan," MPRA Paper 101296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jiayan YU & Jingqian ZHANG & Hee Eun SHIN & Jooan KONG, 2019. "Revisiting the Economic Crisis after a Decade: Statistical and Machine Learning Perspectives," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 14-19.
    3. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    4. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," Globalization Institute Working Papers 340, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Marcelle Chauvet & Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2021. "Transfer Learning for Business Cycle Identification," Working Papers Series 545, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    7. Min Jeong Kim & Dohyoung Kwon, 2023. "Dynamic asset allocation strategy: an economic regime approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 136-147, March.
    8. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2017. "Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 45-49.
    9. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    10. Henri Nyberg, 2018. "Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, January.
    11. Philip Ndikum, 2020. "Machine Learning Algorithms for Financial Asset Price Forecasting," Papers 2004.01504, arXiv.org.
    12. Davig, Troy & Hall, Aaron Smalter, 2019. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 848-867.
    13. Pönkä, Harri & Stenborg, Markku, 2018. "Forecasting the state of the Finnish business cycle," MPRA Paper 91226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
    15. Rademacher, Philip, 2024. "Forecasting recessions in Germany with machine learning," DICE Discussion Papers 416, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    16. Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2017. "Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 183-194, August.
    17. Martins, Manuel M.F. & Verona, Fabio, 2021. "Bond vs. bank finance and the Great Recession," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    18. Mahmoud Ayoub & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Financial ambiguity and oil prices," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, December.
    19. Heiberger, Raphael H., 2018. "Predicting economic growth with stock networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 489(C), pages 102-111.
    20. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    21. Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2022. "Deep Learning Macroeconomics," Papers 2201.13380, arXiv.org.
    22. Lauri Nevasalmi, 2022. "Recession forecasting with high‐dimensional data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 752-764, July.
    23. Hwang, Youngjin, 2019. "Forecasting recessions with time-varying models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    24. Leakey Omolo & Nguyet Nguyen, 2024. "Using an Ensemble of Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Economic Recession," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-26, September.
    25. Heikki Kauppi, 2019. "Recession Prediction with OptimalUse of Leading Indicators," Discussion Papers 125, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    26. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    27. Vrontos, Spyridon D. & Galakis, John & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2021. "Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 647-671.
    28. Cheng-Feng Wu & Shian-Chang Huang & Chei-Chang Chiou & Tsangyao Chang & Yung-Chih Chen, 2022. "The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Electricity Consumption: Bootstrap ARDL Test with a Fourier Function and Machine Learning Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(4), pages 1197-1220, December.
    29. Shahram Fattahi & Kiomars Sohaili & Hamed Monkaresi & Fatemeh Mehrabi, 2017. "Modelling and Forecasting Recessions in Oil-exporting Countries: The Case of Iran," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 569-574.
    30. Michael T. Kiley, 2023. "Recession Signals and Business Cycle Dynamics: Tying the Pieces Together," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Filip Bašić & Tomislav Globan, 2023. "Early bird catches the worm: finding the most effective early warning indicators of recessions," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 2120040-212, December.
    32. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions With Boosted Regression Trees," Working Papers 2015-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    33. Wang, Lu & Wu, Jiangbin & Cao, Yang & Hong, Yanran, 2022. "Forecasting renewable energy stock volatility using short and long-term Markov switching GARCH-MIDAS models: Either, neither or both?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    34. Seulki Chung, 2023. "Real-time Prediction of the Great Recession and the Covid-19 Recession," Papers 2310.08536, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    35. Gregory de Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2023. "Empirical DSGE model evaluation with interest rate expectations measures and preferences over safe assets," Working Paper Research 433, National Bank of Belgium.
    36. Qin Zhang & He Ni & Hao Xu, 2023. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data‐rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed‐frequency data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 719-767, March.
    37. Luca Brugnolini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2022. "Euro Area Deflationary Pressure Index," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 883-900, October.
    38. Troy Davig & Aaron Smalter Hall, 2016. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," Research Working Paper RWP 16-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    39. Claudia Pacella, 2021. "Dating the euro area business cycle: an evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1332, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    40. Stefan Gebauer, 2017. "The Use of Financial Market Variables in Forecasting," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 115, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    41. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    42. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Christian Pierdzioch, 2015. "Predicting Recessions in Germany With Boosted Regression Trees," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201505, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    43. Máximo Camacho & Gonzalo Palmieri, 2021. "Evaluating the OECD’s main economic indicators at anticipating recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 80-93, January.

  8. Berge, Travis, 2012. "Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?," MPRA Paper 42392, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Agnieszka Domańska & Dobrmił Serwa, 2014. "Synchronizacja cykli koniunkturalnych a podatność gospodarek krajów Europy na skutki kryzysu gospodarczego 2008-2009," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 37.
    2. Brunhart, Andreas, 2015. "The Swiss business cycle and the lead of small neighbor Liechtenstein," EconStor Preprints 130154, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Paul Gaggl & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2014. "The Cyclical Component of Labor Market Polarization and Jobless Recoveries in the US," Working Papers 14.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    4. Andreas Brunhart, 2017. "Are Microstates Necessarily Led by Their Bigger Neighbors’ Business Cycle? The Case of Liechtenstein and Switzerland," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 29-52, May.
    5. Jang Tae-Seok, 2020. "Animal spirits in an open economy: an interaction-based approach to the business cycle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, January.
    6. Travis J. Berge & Guangye Cao, 2014. "Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-31.
    7. Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Looking into the Rear-View Mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Maxwell Hartt, 2018. "The diversity of North American shrinking cities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(13), pages 2946-2959, October.
    9. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia's Decoupling: Fact, Fairytale or Forecast?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-344, August.
    10. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia’s decoupling: fact, forecast or fiction?," BIS Working Papers 438, Bank for International Settlements.

  9. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    Cited by:

    1. Hambuckers, J. & Ulm, M., 2023. "On the role of interest rate differentials in the dynamic asymmetry of exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Martin McCarthy, Stephen Snudden, 2024. "Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data," LCERPA Working Papers jc0148, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Oct 2024.
    3. Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2017. "Selecting exchange rate fundamentals by bootstrap," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 894-914.
    4. Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schüssler, 2014. "Forecasting Exchange Rates under Model and Parameter Uncertainty," CQE Working Papers 3214, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    5. Travis J. Berge, 2017. "Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Beckmann, Joscha & Schüssler, Rainer, 2016. "Forecasting exchange rates under parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 267-288.
    7. Byrne, Joseph P & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J, 2014. "On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability," MPRA Paper 58956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2016. "A boosting approach to forecasting the volatility of gold-price fluctuations under flexible loss," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 95-107.
    9. Ren, Yu & Liang, Xuanxuan & Wang, Qin, 2021. "Short-term exchange rate forecasting: A panel combination approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Risse, Marian & Ohl, Ludwig, 2017. "Using dynamic model averaging in state space representation with dynamic Occam’s window and applications to the stock and gold market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 158-176.
    11. Dichtl, Hubert, 2020. "Forecasting excess returns of the gold market: Can we learn from stock market predictions?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    12. Beckmann, J & Koop, G & Korobilis, D & Schüssler, R, 2017. "Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 20781, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    13. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta & Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Silva, 2018. "Forecasting Changes of Economic Inequality: A Boosting Approach," Working Papers 201868, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Liu, Li & Tan, Siming & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Can commodity prices forecast exchange rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

  10. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011," Working Paper Series 2011-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Broadberry, Stephen & Lennard, Jason, 2023. "European Business Cycles and Economic Growth, 1300-2000," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 683, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    2. Ezgi Kaya & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos & Nezih Guner, 2015. "Gender Gaps in Spain: Policies and Outcomes over the Last Three Decades," Working Papers 751, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Jéfferson A. Colombo & Martinho R. Lazzari, 2020. "Same, but different? A state-level chronology of the 2014-2016 Brazilian economic recession and comparisons with the GFC and (early data on) COVID-19," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2445-2456.
    4. Claudia Pacella, 2020. "Essays on Forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/307579, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2022. "Dating Business Cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700-2010," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2022-16, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    6. Ricci L. Reber & Sarah J. Pack, 2014. "Methods of Temporal Disaggregation for Estimating Output of the Insurance Industry," BEA Working Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    7. Valerie Grossman & Adrienne Mack & Enrique Martínez García, 2014. "A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980-2012)," Globalization Institute Working Papers 169, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Saldarriaga, Miguel, 2018. "Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters," Working Papers 2018-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    9. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    10. Hanna, Alan J., 2018. "A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 93-110.

  11. Oscar Jorda & Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge, 2010. "A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding," Working Papers 216, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    3. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Andrea Giusto & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Nowcasting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points with Vector Quantization," Working Papers daleconwp2013-02, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    5. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    6. Giusto, Andrea & Piger, Jeremy, 2017. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time with vector quantization," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 174-184.
    7. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Technology shocks and stock returns: A long-term perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 67-83.
    8. Kroencke, Tim A., 2022. "Recessions and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 61-77.

  12. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Working Papers 16491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Rongju Zhang & Mark Aarons & Gregoire Loeper, 2019. "Optimal FX Hedge Tenor with Liquidity Risk," Papers 1903.06346, arXiv.org.
    2. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2015. "Currency carry trades in Latin America," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 81.
    4. Elias, Nikolaos & Smyrnakis, Dimitris & Tzavalis, Elias, 2024. "The forward premium anomaly and the currency carry trade hypothesis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 203-218.
    5. Stanislav Anatolyev & Nikolay Gospodinov & Ibrahim Jamali & Xiaochun Liu, 2015. "Foreign exchange predictability during the financial crisis: implications for carry trade profitability," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    6. Shehadeh, Ali & Erdős, Péter & Li, Youwei & Moore, Michael, 2016. "US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of “Cheap Money”," MPRA Paper 70770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    8. Pavel Trunin & Sergey Narkevich, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble to Become Regional Reserve Currency," Working Papers 118, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    9. Narkevich, Siarhei & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble as a Regional Reserve Currency," Published Papers dok2, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    10. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.
    11. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2016. "If you’re so smart: John Maynard Keynes and currency speculation in the interwar years," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64722, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim & Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Foreign exchange predictability and the carry trade: A decomposition approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-211.
    14. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    15. Reitz, Stefan & Umlandt, Dennis, 2021. "Currency returns and FX dealer balance sheets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

Articles

  1. Berge, Travis & De Ridder, Maarten & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2021. "When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Berge, Travis J. & Chang, Andrew C. & Sinha, Nitish R., 2019. "Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1627-1635.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Berge, Travis J., 2018. "Understanding survey-based inflation expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 788-801.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Travis J. Berge, 2015. "Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 455-471, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Travis J. Berge & Guangye Cao, 2014. "The global impact of U.S. monetary policy," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-2, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Zeeshan Younas & Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2018. "Macroeconomic Impacts of External Shocks on Economy:Recursive Vector Autoregressive (RVAR) Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(4), pages 169-184, December.

  6. Travis J. Berge & Guangye Cao, 2014. "Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-31.

    Cited by:

    1. Thealexa Becker & Andrew Lee Smith, 2015. "Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 57-78.
    2. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    3. Severin Bernhard & Till Ebner, 2016. "Cross-border Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies on Swiss Asset Prices," Working Papers 2016-09, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Stephanos Papadamou & Νikolaos A. Kyriazis & Panayiotis G. Tzeremes, 2020. "US non-linear causal effects on global equity indices in Normal times versus unconventional eras," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 381-407, May.
    5. Stephanos Papadamou & Nikolaos A. Kyriazis & Panayiotis G. Tzeremes, 2019. "Spillover Effects of US QE and QE Tapering on African and Middle Eastern Stock Indices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, April.
    6. Hanna Armelius & Christoph Bertsch & Isaiah Hull & Xin Zhang, 2019. "Spread the Word: International Spillovers from Central Bank Communication," BIS Working Papers 824, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Eric Fischer, 2020. "Monetary Surprises and Global Financial Flows: A Case Study of Latin America," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 19(2), pages 189-225, August.
    8. Annette Meinusch, 2017. "When the Fed sneezes - Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy to Emerging Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201730, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

  7. Travis J. Berge, 2014. "Forecasting Disconnected Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 713-735, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2013. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Travis J. Berge, 2012. "Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q III).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 357-388.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
    2. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    3. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2017. "Does Business Confidence Matter for Investment?," Carleton Economic Papers 17-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Mar 2019.
    4. Ceyhun Elgin & M. ayhan Köse & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Understanding Informality Abstract:," Working Papers 2021/03, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    5. Mathias Drehmann, 2013. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," BIS Working Papers 421, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Güneş Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Jeffrey Clemens & Michael R. Strain, 2020. "Public Policy and Participation in Political Interest Groups: An Analysis of Minimum Wages, Labor Unions, and Effective Advocacy," NBER Working Papers 27902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Aaron J. Amburgey & Michael W. McCracken, 2023. "On the real‐time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 137-163, March.
    9. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Gaston Giordana & Michael H. Ziegelmeyer, 2022. "Using household-level data to guide borrower-based macro-prudential policy," BCL working papers 161, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    11. Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.
    12. Christopher McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," CAMA Working Papers 2016-40, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," NBER Working Papers 16567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Segnon, Mawuli, 2016. "The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions: A mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-20.
    15. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
    16. Huang, Yu-Fan & Startz, Richard, 2020. "Improved recession dating using stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 507-514.
    17. Thomas M. Mertens, 2022. "Recession Prediction on the Clock," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(36), pages 1-06, December.
    18. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia, 2018. "The financial cycle and recession risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    19. Ceyhun Elgin & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal and Formal Economy Cycles," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2115, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    20. Ghulame Rubbaniy & Ali Awais Khalid & Shoaib Ali & Efstathios Polyzos, 2023. "Cyclicality of liquidity creation: Nonlinear evidence from US bank holding companies," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1165-1185, December.
    21. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    22. Jorge E. Galán, 2021. "CREWS: a CAMELS-based early warning system of systemic risk in the banking sector," Occasional Papers 2132, Banco de España.
    23. Sutirtha Bagchi, 2017. "A Tale of Two Cities: An Examination of Medallion Prices in New York and Chicago," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 33, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    24. Buckmann, Marcus & Gallego Marquez, Paula & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Kapadia, Sujit & Rismanchi, Katie, 2023. "The more the merrier? Evidence on the value of multiple requirements in bank regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    25. Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    26. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2019-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2021.
    27. Martin Pažický, 2021. "Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 263-291, December.
    28. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Does the Cost of Private Debt Respond to Monetary Policy? Heteroskedasticity-Based Identification in a Model with Regimes," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19118, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    29. Komla M. Agudze & Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Markov Switching Panel with Endogenous Synchronization Effects," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS82, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    30. Turgut Kisinbay & Chikako Baba, 2011. "Predicting Recessions: A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations," IMF Working Papers 2011/235, International Monetary Fund.
    31. David W. Findlay, 2024. "To Dip or Not to Dip? A Comment on Kyer and Maggs (2019)," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(1), pages 47-63, February.
    32. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    33. Scott A. Brave & Jose A. Lopez, 2019. "Calibrating Macroprudential Policy to Forecasts of Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 1-59, March.
    34. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2021. "Which Credit Gap Is Better at Predicting Financial Crises? A Comparison of Univariate Filters," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-31, October.
    35. Thibaut Duprey & Benjamin Klaus & Tuomas Peltonen, 2016. "Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries," Staff Working Papers 16-11, Bank of Canada.
    36. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2019. "Tech on the ROC: A New Way of Looking at Exporting Firms," Working Papers LuissLab 19152, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    37. André K. Anundsen & Frank Hansen & Karsten Gerdrup & Kasper Kragh-Sørensen, 2014. "Bubbles and crises: The role of house prices and credit," Working Paper 2014/14, Norges Bank.
    38. Marie Bessec, 2019. "Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed-frequency data," Post-Print hal-02181552, HAL.
    39. Silver, Steven D. & Raseta, Marko & Bazarova, Alina, 2023. "Stochastic resonance in the recovery of signal from agent price expectations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    40. Serena Ng, 2014. "Viewpoint: Boosting Recessions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(1), pages 1-34, February.
    41. Guérin, Pierre & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2017. "Model averaging in Markov-switching models: Predicting national recessions with regional data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 45-49.
    42. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2019. "Tech on the ROC: Export Threshold and Technology Adoption Interacted," LEM Papers Series 2019/38, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    43. Ceyhun Elgin & M. ayhan Köse & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal and Formal Economy Cycles Abstract:," Working Papers 2021/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    44. Valerio Ercolani & Filippo Natoli, 2020. "Forecasting US recessions: the role of economic uncertainty," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1299, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    45. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2016. "A quantile-boosting approach to forecasting gold returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-55.
    46. Nyberg, Henri & Pönkä, Harri, 2016. "International sign predictability of stock returns: The role of the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 323-338.
    47. Ceyhun Elgin & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2021. "Understanding informality," CAMA Working Papers 2021-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    48. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    49. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011," Research Working Paper RWP 11-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    50. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "A tale of two recession-derivative indicators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 925-947, August.
    51. Kim Ristolainen, 2015. "Were the Scandinavian Banking Crises Predictable? A Neural Network Approach," Discussion Papers 99, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    52. Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2018. "Business cycle narratives," Working Paper 2018/3, Norges Bank.
    53. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen & Eyo I. Herstad, 2017. "Residential investment and recession predictability," Working Paper 2017/24, Norges Bank.
    54. Marius M. Mihai, 2020. "Do credit booms predict US recessions?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 887-910, September.
    55. Binici, Mahir & Köksal, Bülent, 2012. "Türkiye'de Aşırı Kredi Genişlemeleri ve Belirleyicileri [Determinants of Credit Booms in Turkey]," MPRA Paper 38032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    56. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2020. "GDP Forecast Accuracy During Recessions," Working Papers 20-06, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    57. van Os, Bram & van Dijk, Dick, 2024. "Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-switching model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 313-323.
    58. Henri Nyberg, 2018. "Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, January.
    59. Boonman, T.M. & Jacobs, J.P.A.M. & Kuper, G.H., 2013. "Sovereign debt crises in Latin America," Research Report 13016-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    60. Jozef Barunik & Mattia Bevilacqua & Robert Faff, 2021. "Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle," Papers 2101.06957, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    61. Davig, Troy & Hall, Aaron Smalter, 2019. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 848-867.
    62. Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele, 2019. "Structural changes in large economic datasets: A nonparametric homogeneity test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 55-59.
    63. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles," Working Papers No 4/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    64. Pönkä, Harri & Stenborg, Markku, 2018. "Forecasting the state of the Finnish business cycle," MPRA Paper 91226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    65. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
    66. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2015. "Monitoring the world business cycle," Working Papers 1509, Banco de España.
    67. Lahiri, Kajal & Wang, J. George, 2013. "Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 175-190.
    68. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "What Does Forecaster Disagreement Tell Us about the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2020-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    69. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    70. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
    71. Yildirim, Yusuf & Sanyal, Anirban, 2022. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Early Warning Indicators: An Application of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Approach to Panel Data," MPRA Paper 112079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. Larson, William D. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2022. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 635-647.
    73. Jón Daníelsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2016. "Learning from History : Volatility and Financial Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    74. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Mr. Jörg Decressin & Mr. Marco Terrones, 2013. "Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?," IMF Working Papers 2013/203, International Monetary Fund.
    75. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Owyang, 2022. "Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1314-1333, November.
    76. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US," Working Papers 22-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    77. Arabinda Basistha, "undated". "Estimates of Quarterly and Monthly Episodes of Global Recessions: Evidence from Markov-switching Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 24-07, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    78. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2014. "Nowcasting Using the Chicago Fed National Activity Index," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 19-37.
    79. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
    80. Harri Ponka, 2017. "The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, August.
    81. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2019. "Business Cycles Across Space and Time," Working Papers 2019-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 05 May 2021.
    82. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    83. Yu-Chin Hsu & Robert P. Lieli, 2021. "Inference for ROC Curves Based on Estimated Predictive Indices," Papers 2112.01772, arXiv.org.
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    85. Maximo Camacho & Salvador Ramallo & Manuel Ruiz, 2024. "A New Approach to Forecasting the Probability of Recessions after the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(4), pages 833-855, August.
    86. Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2018. "Confidence Bands for ROC Curves With Serially Dependent Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 115-130, January.
    87. Karsten Müller, 2022. "German forecasters’ narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2373-2415, May.
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    89. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli & Davide Zurlo, 2021. "Italian firms in times of troubles: Covid-19 pandemic as a test of structural solidity," LEM Papers Series 2021/47, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    90. Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data," Working Papers 201463, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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    94. Maximilian Grimm, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Bank Funding Stability," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 341, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    95. David Coble & Pablo Pincheira, 2021. "Forecasting building permits with Google Trends," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3315-3345, December.
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    97. Tim Meyer, 2019. "On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 457-488, April.
    98. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Amit Kara, 2020. "The Impact of GDP Data Revisions on Identifying and Predicting UK Recessions," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    99. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    100. Lauri Nevasalmi, 2022. "Recession forecasting with high‐dimensional data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 752-764, July.
    101. Ralf Fendel & Nicola Mai & Oliver Mohr, 2021. "Recession probabilities for the Eurozone at the zero lower bound: Challenges to the term spread and rise of alternatives," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1000-1026, September.
    102. Nguena, Christian-Lambert & Kodila-Tedika, Oasis, 2020. "On Recessive and Expansionary Impact of Financial Development: Empirical Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 555, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
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  12. Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Future recession risks: an update," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.14.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2015. "Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP," Working Papers No 10/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

  13. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2010. "Future recession risks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug9.

    Cited by:

    1. Travis J. Berge & Early Elias & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Future recession risks: an update," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.14.
    2. David Lang & Kevin J. Lansing, 2010. "Forecasting growth over the next year with a business cycle index," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep27.

Chapters

  1. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 357-387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
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