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A further analysis of the conference board’s new Leading Economic Index

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  • Lahiri, Kajal
  • Yang, Liu

Abstract

We examine the marginal effect of replacing M2 with the Leading Credit Index in TCB’s latest comprehensive benchmark revision of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators using a number of appropriate diagnostic measures, and re-affirm the relative superiority of the new leading index from the standpoint of business cycle forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2015. "A further analysis of the conference board’s new Leading Economic Index," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 446-453.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:446-453
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.12.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hsu, Wu-ron & Murphy, Allan H., 1986. "The attributes diagram A geometrical framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 285-293.
    2. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    3. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
    4. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    5. Lahiri, Kajal & Wang, J. George, 2013. "Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 175-190.
    6. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.
    7. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shuaizhang Feng & Jiandong Sun, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," Working Papers 2020-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    2. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    3. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "A tale of two recession-derivative indicators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 925-947, August.
    4. Lorenzo Bencivelli & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluca Moretti, 2017. "Forecasting economic activity by Bayesian bridge model averaging," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 21-40, August.
    5. Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2017. "Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 183-194, August.
    6. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," GLO Discussion Paper Series 523, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Kiss, Tamás & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Fat tails in leading indicators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. Liu, Weiling & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "What predicts US recessions?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1138-1150.
    9. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 13168, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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