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Essays on Forecasting

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  • Claudia Pacella

Abstract

In this thesis I apply modern econometric techniques on macroeconomic time series. Forecasting is here developed along several dimensions in the three chapters. The chapters are in principle self-contained. However, a common element is represented by the business cycle analysis. In the first paper, which primarily deals with the problem of forecasting euro area inflation in the short and medium run, we also compute the country-specific responses of a common business cycle shock. Both chapters 2 and 3 deal predominately with business cycle issues from two different perspectives. The former chapter analyses the business cycle as a dichotomous non-observable variable and addresses the issue of evaluating the euro area business cycle dating formulated by the CEPR committee, while the latter chapter studies the entire distribution of GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Pacella, 2020. "Essays on Forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/307579, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/307579
    Note: Degree: Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2013. "A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34, March.
    2. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    3. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    4. Newey, Whitney K & Powell, James L, 1987. "Asymmetric Least Squares Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 819-847, July.
    5. James W. Taylor, 2008. "Estimating Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Using Expectiles," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 231-252, Spring.
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