IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v149y2023ics0378426622003338.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The more the merrier? Evidence on the value of multiple requirements in bank regulation

Author

Listed:
  • Buckmann, Marcus
  • Gallego Marquez, Paula
  • Gimpelewicz, Mariana
  • Kapadia, Sujit
  • Rismanchi, Katie

Abstract

This paper assesses the value of multiple requirements in bank regulation using a novel empirical rule-based methodology. Exploiting two datasets, we apply simple threshold-based rules to assess how different capital and liquidity ratios individually and in combination might have identified banks that failed in the global financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis. Our results support the case for a small portfolio of different regulatory metrics, calibrated holistically. A portfolio of a leverage ratio, a risk-weighted capital ratio and a liquidity ratio such as the NSFR correctly identifies a high proportion of failing banks with fewer false alarms than any of these metrics individually – and at less stringent calibrations. The relative usefulness of individual metrics also varies across different crises and regulatory regimes, highlighting how a portfolio approach may be more robust. Further, we show that market-based capitalisation measures and loan-to-deposit ratios can provide complementary value in monitoring banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Buckmann, Marcus & Gallego Marquez, Paula & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Kapadia, Sujit & Rismanchi, Katie, 2023. "The more the merrier? Evidence on the value of multiple requirements in bank regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:149:y:2023:i:c:s0378426622003338
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106753
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426622003338
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106753?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 2010/146, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Boyd, John H. & Heitz, Amanda, 2016. "The social costs and benefits of too-big-to-fail banks: A “bounding” exercise," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 251-265.
    4. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-667, August.
    5. Behn, Markus & Corrias, Renzo & Rola-Janicka, Magdalena, 2019. "On the interaction between different bank liquidity requirements," Macroprudential Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9.
    6. Betz, Frank & Oprică, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Predicting distress in European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 225-241.
    7. Rebel Cole & Lawrence White, 2012. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 5-29, October.
    8. David Aikman & Mirta Galesic & Gerd Gigerenzer & Sujit Kapadia & Konstantinos Katsikopoulos & Amit Kothiyal & Emma Murphy & Tobias Neumann, 2021. "Taking uncertainty seriously: simplicity versus complexity in financial regulation [Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy-making: art or science?]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(2), pages 317-345.
    9. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2017. "Strengthening and Streamlining Bank Capital Regulation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 479-565.
    10. Le, Hong Hanh & Viviani, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Predicting bank failure: An improvement by implementing a machine-learning approach to classical financial ratios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 16-25.
    11. Detken, Carsten & Weeken, Olaf & Alessi, Lucia & Bonfim, Diana & Boucinha, Miguel & Castro, Christian & Frontczak, Sebastian & Giordana, Gaston & Giese, Julia & Wildmann, Nadya & Kakes, Jan & Klaus, B, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 5, European Systemic Risk Board.
    12. Andrew G. Haldane & Vasileios Madouros, 2012. "The dog and the frisbee," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 109-159.
    13. Lang, Jan Hannes & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2018. "A framework for early-warning modeling with an application to banks," Working Paper Series 2182, European Central Bank.
    14. Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
    15. repec:erf:erfstu:78 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010. "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
    17. Kiema, Ilkka & Jokivuolle, Esa, 2014. "Does a leverage ratio requirement increase bank stability?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 240-254.
    18. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
    20. Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
    21. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    22. Sanders, Austen & Willison, Matthew, 2021. "Measure for measure: evidence on the relative performance of regulatory requirements for small and large banks," Bank of England working papers 922, Bank of England.
    23. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
    24. Mousavi, Shabnam & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2014. "Risk, uncertainty, and heuristics," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(8), pages 1671-1678.
    25. Cleary, Sean & Hebb, Greg, 2016. "An efficient and functional model for predicting bank distress: In and out of sample evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 101-111.
    26. Claudio Borio & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Assessing the risk of banking crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    27. Carsten Detken & Olaf Weeken & Lucia Alessi & Diana Bonfim & Miguel M. Boucinha & Christian Castro & Sebastian Frontczak & Gaston Giordana & Julia Giese & Nadya Jahn & Jan Kakes & Benjamin Klaus & Jan, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 05, European Systemic Risk Board.
    28. Yoshua Bengio & Claude Nadeau, 1999. "Inference for the Generalization Error," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-25, CIRANO.
    29. Carmona, Pedro & Climent, Francisco & Momparler, Alexandre, 2019. "Predicting failure in the U.S. banking sector: An extreme gradient boosting approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 304-323.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buckmann, Marcus & Gallego Marquez, Paula & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Kapadia, Sujit & Rismanchi, Katie, 2021. "The more the merrier? Evidence from the global financial crisis on the value of multiple requirements in bank regulation," Bank of England working papers 905, Bank of England.
    2. Jorge E. Galán, 2021. "CREWS: a CAMELS-based early warning system of systemic risk in the banking sector," Occasional Papers 2132, Banco de España.
    3. Citterio, Alberto, 2024. "Bank failure prediction models: Review and outlook," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    4. Gaston Giordana & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2024. "Using household-level data to guide borrower-based macro-prudential policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 785-827, February.
    5. Manthoulis, Georgios & Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Galariotis, Emilios, 2020. "An ordinal classification framework for bank failure prediction: Methodology and empirical evidence for US banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 786-801.
    6. Li Xian Liu & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2021. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Synthesis of Literature and Directions for Future Research," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    7. repec:erf:erfstu:78 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Schudel, Willem, 2015. "Shifting horizons: assessing macro trends before, during, and following systemic banking crises," Working Paper Series 1766, European Central Bank.
    9. Betz, Frank & Oprică, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Predicting distress in European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 225-241.
    10. Suss, Joel & Treitel, Henry, 2019. "Predicting bank distress in the UK with machine learning," Bank of England working papers 831, Bank of England.
    11. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2018. "Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 353-370, March.
    12. Kristóf, Tamás & Virág, Miklós, 2022. "EU-27 bank failure prediction with C5.0 decision trees and deep learning neural networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. Koresh Galil & Margalit Samuel & Offer Moshe Shapir & Wolf Wagner, 2023. "Bailouts and the modeling of bank distress," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 7-30, February.
    14. Lainà, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 18-35.
    15. Kalatie, Simo & Laakkonen, Helinä & Tölö, Eero, 2015. "Indicators used in setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland.
    16. Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2015. "Contribution of macroeconomic factors to the prediction of small bank failures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 25-39.
    17. Marcin Pietrzak, 2021. "Can Financial Soundness Indicators Help Predict Financial Sector Distress?," IMF Working Papers 2021/197, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Lang, Jan Hannes & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2018. "A framework for early-warning modeling with an application to banks," Working Paper Series 2182, European Central Bank.
    19. Patrizio Lainà & Juho Nyholm & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 18-35, January.
    20. Fendel Ralf & Stremmel Hanno, 2016. "Characteristics of Banking Crises: A Comparative Study with Geographical Contagion," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(3), pages 349-388, May.
    21. Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Agrapetidou, Anna, 2018. "Forecasting bank failures and stress testing: A machine learning approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 440-455.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking regulation; Basel III; Bank failure; Global financial crisis; Market-based metrics; Regulatory complexity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:149:y:2023:i:c:s0378426622003338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.