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Can Households Predict where the Macroeconomy is Headed?

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Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate households’ directional forecasts of inflation and the unemployment rate in Sweden. The analysis is conducted using monthly forecasts from the National Institute of Economic Research’s Economic Tendency Survey that range from January 1996 until August 2019. Results indicate that households have statistically significant ability to forecast where the unem-ployment is headed, but they fail in predicting the direction of future inflation.

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  • Kladivko, Kamil & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Can Households Predict where the Macroeconomy is Headed?," Working Papers 2020:11, Örebro University, School of Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2020_011
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Ka Yui LEUNG, 2022. "Housing and Macroeconomics," ISER Discussion Paper 1197, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survey data; Directional forecasts; Inflation; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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