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Fat tails in leading indicators

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  • Kiss, Tamás
  • Österholm, Pär

Abstract

We analyse four leading indicators in the US economy using autoregressive models and find strong evidence in favour of GARCH effects. All series remain fat-tailed after controlling for GARCH effects, suggesting that non-Gaussianity of the innovations should be accounted for.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiss, Tamás & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Fat tails in leading indicators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s016517652030210x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109317
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    Cited by:

    1. Cioroianu, Iulia & Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles, 2021. "Guilt through association: Reputational contagion and the Boeing 737-MAX disasters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    2. Tamás Kiss & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2021. "Modelling Returns in US Housing Prices—You’re the One for Me, Fat Tails," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Tamás Kiss & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Modeling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond‐yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non‐Gaussian innovations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 347-368, March.
    4. Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "The Relation between the High-Yield Bond Spread and the Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    5. Xiaolu Wei & Yubo Tian & Na Li & Huanxin Peng, 2024. "Evaluating ensemble learning techniques for stock index trend prediction: a case of China," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 23(3), pages 505-530, September.
    6. Tamás Kiss & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Modelling Okun’s law: Does non-Gaussianity matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2183-2213, May.
    7. Matei Demetrescu & Robinson Kruse-Becher, 2021. "Is U.S. real output growth really non-normal? Testing distributional assumptions in time-varying location-scale models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-07, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-Gaussianity; GARCH;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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