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Central bank information and private-sector Expectations

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  • Jochen Güntner

Abstract

Jarocinski and Karadi (2020) disentangle a pure information from the interest rate component of monetary policy surprises. This note quantifies the information revealed in FOMC announcements using forecast revisions from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. In response to a positive central bank information shock, survey participants revise their now- and short-term forecasts of real GDP growth upwards, while the corresponding revisions in the growth rate of the GDP deflator are mostly statistically insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Jochen Güntner, 2020. "Central bank information and private-sector Expectations," Economics working papers 2020-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    • Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2020-07
    Note: English
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Blue Chip Economic Indicators; Central bank information shocks; Forecast revisions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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