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On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates

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  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph

Abstract

We use survey data to study whether the exchange-rate forecasts made by professional forecasters are informative with respect to the direction of subsequent changes of (Asian, Eastern European, and South American) emerging market exchange rates. While results vary across exchange rates, we find that forecasts often contain information with respect to directional changes of exchange rates. We derive our empirical results using techniques developed to analyze relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

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  • Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 369-376.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:38:y:2015:i:c:p:369-376
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.03.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2016. "A quantile-boosting approach to forecasting gold returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-55.
    2. Karsten Müller, 2022. "German forecasters’ narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2373-2415, May.
    3. Tim Meyer, 2019. "On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 457-488, April.
    4. Mei-Li Shen & Cheng-Feng Lee & Hsiou-Hsiang Liu & Po-Yin Chang & Cheng-Hong Yang, 2021. "An Effective Hybrid Approach for Forecasting Currency Exchange Rates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-29, March.
    5. Baghestani, Hamid & Toledo, Hugo, 2017. "Do analysts' forecasts of term spread differential help predict directional change in exchange rates?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 62-69.
    6. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2017. "Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 745-759.
    7. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Has Macroeconomic Forecasting changed after the Great Recession? - Panel-based Evidence on Accuracy and Forecaster Behaviour from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201803, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    8. Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
    9. Gerritsen, Dirk F. & Lugtigheid, Rick A.C. & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Can Bitcoin Investors Profit from Predictions by Crypto Experts?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
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    11. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Emerging markets; Forecasts; Direction of change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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