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A thousand words tell more than just numbers: Financial crises and historical headlines

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  • Ristolainen, Kim
  • Roukka, Tomi
  • Nyberg, Henri

Abstract

We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from a large panel of economic news articles in global newspapers between the years 1870 and 2016 with conventional macroeconomic and financial indicators. We find that the predictive information of newspaper article titles that signals coming crisis episodes is substantial over and above the macroeconomic and financial indicators. Feature contribution analysis and crisis case studies reveal that the new indicators capture more detailed, but still generalizable information on the buildup of crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Ristolainen, Kim & Roukka, Tomi & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "A thousand words tell more than just numbers: Financial crises and historical headlines," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:70:y:2024:i:c:s1572308923001092
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101209
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Text data; Leading indicators; Topic model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N01 - Economic History - - General - - - Development of the Discipline: Historiographical; Sources and Methods
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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