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The Spline-GARCH Model for Low-Frequency Volatility and Its Global Macroeconomic Causes

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Cited by:

  1. Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Predicting Stock Market Movements in the United States: The Role of Presidential Approval Ratings," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 324-335, March.
  2. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2024. "Consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators of a multiplicative time-varying smooth transition correlation GARCH model," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 57-72.
  3. Claudio Morana, 2010. "Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 36-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  4. Segnon, Mawuli & Gupta, Rangan & Wilfling, Bernd, 2024. "Forecasting stock market volatility with regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS: The role of geopolitical risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 29-43.
  5. Kim, Kun Ho, 2014. "Counter-cyclical risk aversion," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 384-401.
  6. Claudio Morana, 2014. "Factor Vector Autoregressive Estimation of Heteroskedastic Persistent and Non Persistent Processes Subject to Structural Breaks," Working Papers 273, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
  7. Beyer, Deborah B. & Fan, Zaifeng S., 2023. "The calming effects of conflict: The impact of partisan conflict on market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  8. Shiyi Wang, 2019. "Capital Flow Volatility: The Effects of Financial Development and Global Financial Conditions," 2019 Papers pwa945, Job Market Papers.
  9. Roberto Pascual & David Veredas, 2010. "Does the Open Limit Order Book Matter in Explaining Informational Volatility?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 57-87, Winter.
  10. Hervé Ott, 2014. "Extent and possible causes of intrayear agricultural commodity price volatility," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(2), pages 225-252, March.
  11. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  12. Christian Urom & Gideon Ndubuisi & Jude Ozor, 2021. "Economic activity, and financial and commodity markets’ shocks: An analysis of implied volatility indexes," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 51-66.
  13. Belke, Ansgar & Volz, Ulrich, 2018. "Capital flows to emerging market and developing economies: global liquidity and uncertainty versus country-specific pull factors," IDOS Discussion Papers 23/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
  14. Hamidi, Benjamin & Maillet, Bertrand & Prigent, Jean-Luc, 2014. "A dynamic autoregressive expectile for time-invariant portfolio protection strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-29.
  15. Roman Horvath & Petr Poldauf, 2012. "International Stock Market Comovements: What Happened during the Financial Crisis?," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, March.
  16. Shang, Yuhuang & Liu, Lulu, 2017. "An extension of stochastic volatility model with mixed frequency information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 144-148.
  17. Mensah, Jones Odei & Premaratne, Gamini, 2018. "Integration of ASEAN banking sector stocks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 48-60.
  18. Amado, Cristina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2014. "Modelling changes in the unconditional variance of long stock return series," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 15-35.
  19. Hossein Asgharian & Charlotte Christiansen & Ai Jun Hou, 2016. "Macro-Finance Determinants of the Long-Run Stock–Bond Correlation: The DCC-MIDAS Specification," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 617-642.
  20. Ngozi G. Emenogu & Monday Osagie Adenomon & Nwaze Obini Nweze, 2020. "On the volatility of daily stock returns of Total Nigeria Plc: evidence from GARCH models, value-at-risk and backtesting," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-25, December.
  21. Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Investor Confidence and Forecastability of US Stock Market Realized Volatility: Evidence from Machine Learning," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 111-122, January.
  22. Fabrizio Cipollini & Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2016. "Copula--based Specification of vector MEMs," Papers 1604.01338, arXiv.org.
  23. Niklas Ahlgren & Alexander Back & Timo Terasvirta, 2024. "A new GARCH model with a deterministic time-varying intercept," Papers 2410.03239, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
  24. Yun-Shi Dai & Peng-Fei Dai & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "The impact of geopolitical risk on the international agricultural market: Empirical analysis based on the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model," Papers 2404.01641, arXiv.org.
  25. Jia, Lijun & Xu, Ruoyu & Wu, Jian & Song, Malin & Chen, Xueli, 2023. "Impacts of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty on metal futures price volatility: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
  26. Shi, Yanlin & Ho, Kin-Yip, 2015. "Modeling high-frequency volatility with three-state FIGARCH models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 473-483.
  27. Rangan Gupta & Yuvana Jaichand & Christian Pierdzioch & Reneé van Eyden, 2023. "Realized Stock-Market Volatility of the United States and the Presidential Approval Rating," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-27, July.
  28. Naimoli, Antonio & Storti, Giuseppe, 2019. "Heterogeneous component multiplicative error models for forecasting trading volumes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1332-1355.
  29. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  30. Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
  31. Hamid Ishfaq, 2023. "Nexus between Macro Economic Variables and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows in India: Evidence from Time Series Analysis," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 26(1), pages 55-75.
  32. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2018. "How Does Stock Market Volatility React To Oil Price Shocks?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 666-682, April.
  33. Andy Wui Wing Cheng & Iris Wing Han Yip, 2017. "China’s Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Shanghai and Hong Kong," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02), pages 1-57, June.
  34. Timo Terasvirta & Zhenfang Zhao, 2011. "Stylized facts of return series, robust estimates and three popular models of volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 67-94.
  35. Opschoor, Anne & van Dijk, Dick & van der Wel, Michel, 2014. "Predicting volatility and correlations with Financial Conditions Indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 435-447.
  36. Bandi, Federico M. & Bretscher, Lorenzo & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Return predictability with endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
  37. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2010. "The 2007-? financial crisis: a euro area money market perspective," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 35-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  38. Mei, Dexiang & Zeng, Qing & Cao, Xiang & Diao, Xiaohua, 2019. "Uncertainty and oil volatility: New evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 155-163.
  39. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Zhu, Jie, 2010. "Long memory in stock market volatility and the volatility-in-mean effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 460-470, June.
  40. Linton, Oliver & Wu, Jianbin, 2020. "A coupled component DCS-EGARCH model for intraday and overnight volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 176-201.
  41. Rangel, José Gonzalo, 2011. "Macroeconomic news, announcements, and stock market jump intensity dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1263-1276, May.
  42. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "Amplitude-Duration-Persistence Trade-off Relationship for Long Term Bear Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 54177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  43. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Mele, Antonio, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of stock volatility and volatility premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 203-220.
  44. Mittnik, Stefan & Robinzonov, Nikolay & Spindler, Martin, 2015. "Stock market volatility: Identifying major drivers and the nature of their impact," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-14.
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  46. Nonejad, Nima, 2017. "Forecasting aggregate stock market volatility using financial and macroeconomic predictors: Which models forecast best, when and why?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 131-154.
  47. Linton, O. & Wu, J., 2016. "A coupled component GARCH model for intraday and overnight volatility," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1671, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  48. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2017. "Forecasting multidimensional tail risk at short and long horizons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 958-969.
  49. David T. Frazier & Bonsoo Koo, 2020. "Indirect Inference for Locally Stationary Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 30/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  50. Christian Peitz & Yuanhua Feng & Bernard M. Gilroy & Nico Stoeckmann, 2020. "The Shanghai- Hong Kong Stock Connect: An Application of the Semi-CGARCH and Semi-EGARCH," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(4), pages 427-438, April.
  51. Mei, Dexiang & Zhao, Chenchen & Luo, Qin & Li, Yan, 2022. "Forecasting the Chinese low-carbon index volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  52. Barigozzi, Matteo & Brownlees, Christian & Gallo, Giampiero M. & Veredas, David, 2014. "Disentangling systematic and idiosyncratic dynamics in panels of volatility measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 364-384.
  53. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2017. "Forecasting multidimensional tail risk at short and long horizons," Bank of England working papers 660, Bank of England.
  54. Fan, Xiaoqian & Yuan, Ying & Zhuang, Xintian & Jin, Xiu, 2017. "Long memory of abnormal investor attention and the cross-correlations between abnormal investor attention and trading volume, volatility respectively," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 323-333.
  55. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2019. "The accuracy of asymmetric GARCH model estimation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 157, pages 179-202.
  56. Chen, Xiaohong & Liao, Zhipeng, 2015. "Sieve semiparametric two-step GMM under weak dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 163-186.
  57. Bucci, Andrea & Palomba, Giulio & Rossi, Eduardo, 2023. "The role of uncertainty in forecasting volatility comovements across stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  58. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri & Qiang Ji, 2020. "Forecasting Oil Volatility Using a GARCH-MIDAS Approach: The Role of Global Economic Conditions," Working Papers 202051, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  59. Fang, Libing & Yu, Honghai & Xiao, Wen, 2018. "Forecasting gold futures market volatility using macroeconomic variables in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 249-259.
  60. Silvennoinen Annastiina & Teräsvirta Timo, 2016. "Testing constancy of unconditional variance in volatility models by misspecification and specification tests," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 347-364, September.
  61. Aitor Erce & Xu Jiang & Diana Zigraiova, 2020. "Quantifying Risks to Sovereign Market Access: Methods and Challenges," Globalization Institute Working Papers 377, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  62. Alessandra Amendola & Vincenzo Candila & Antonio Scognamillo, 2017. "On the influence of US monetary policy on crude oil price volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 155-178, February.
  63. Bekiros, Stelios & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Arreola-Hernandez, Jose & Ur Rehman, Mobeen, 2018. "Directional predictability and time-varying spillovers between stock markets and economic cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 301-312.
  64. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Corbet, Shaen, 2020. "A systematic review of the bubble dynamics of cryptocurrency prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  65. PIERRET, Diane, 2013. "The systemic risk of energy markets," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  66. Zhu, Sha & Liu, Qiuhong & Wang, Yan & Wei, Yu & Wei, Guiwu, 2019. "Which fear index matters for predicting US stock market volatilities: Text-counts or option based measurement?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
  67. Kazutaka Kurasawa, 2017. "Forecasting US recession with the economic policy uncertainty indexes of policy categories," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 100-109.
  68. Chao Liang & Yaojie Zhang & Xiafei Li & Feng Ma, 2022. "Which predictor is more predictive for Bitcoin volatility? And why?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1947-1961, April.
  69. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael W. & Luisi, Maurizio, 2015. "Distilling the macroeconomic news flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 489-507.
  70. Yao, Zhigang & Liu, Yao, 2023. "Crude oil volatility forecasting: New evidence from world uncertainty index," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
  71. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Liu, Jing & Yang, Lin, 2020. "Forecasting stock price volatility: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 684-694.
  72. Clements, Adam & Preve, Daniel P.A., 2021. "A Practical Guide to harnessing the HAR volatility model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  73. Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thomas Walther, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting commodity market volatility with long‐term economic and financial variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 126-142, March.
  74. O-Chia Chuang & Chenxu Yang, 2022. "Identifying the Determinants of Crude Oil Market Volatility by the Multivariate GARCH-MIDAS Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, April.
  75. Shi, Yanlin & Ho, Kin-Yip, 2015. "Long memory and regime switching: A simulation study on the Markov regime-switching ARFIMA model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 189-204.
  76. Ye, Wuyi & Guo, Ranran & Deschamps, Bruno & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2021. "Macroeconomic forecasts and commodity futures volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 981-994.
  77. V. Candila & O. Cepni & G. M. Gallo & R. Gupta, 2024. "Influence of Local and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on the volatility of US state-level equity returns: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS approach with Shrinkage and Cluster Analysis," Working Paper CRENoS 202414, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  78. Song, Wonho & Park, Sung Y. & Ryu, Doojin, 2018. "Dynamic conditional relationships between developed and emerging markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 534-543.
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  80. José Rangel & Robert Engle, 2012. "The Factor–Spline–GARCH Model for High and Low Frequency Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 109-124.
  81. Segal, Gill, 2019. "A tale of two volatilities: Sectoral uncertainty, growth, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 110-140.
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  86. CARPANTIER, Jean - François, 2010. "Commodities inventory effect," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2010040, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  129. Boswijk, H. Peter & Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Georgiev, Iliyan & Rahbek, Anders, 2021. "Bootstrapping non-stationary stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 161-180.
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