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Linking the interest rate swap markets to the macroeconomic risk: The UK and us evidence

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  • Azad, A.S.M. Sohel
  • Fang, Victor
  • Hung, Chi-Hsiou

Abstract

In this paper we aim to link the volatility of interest rate swap (hereafter, IRS) markets to the macroeconomic risk/uncertainty of the UK and the US. In doing so, we obtain the low-frequency volatility of IRS using a recently developed Asymmetric Spline GARCH (ASP-GARCH) model of Rangel and Engle (2012). Our findings suggest a strong relationship between uncertainties of macroeconomic fundamentals and the fluctuation in swap market volatility. The association between the two is robust with respect to the choice of different alternative measures of volatility that are used in the literature on GARCH modelling. From the perspectives of practical implications, the findings suggest that policy makers should use low-frequency volatility in order to examine market responses to key macroeconomic policies, and that market participants may rely on low-frequency volatility to extract trading signals. Using such signals, hedgers could make forecast of whether they need to increase (decrease) IRS usage to hedge risk originating from macroeconomic uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Fang, Victor & Hung, Chi-Hsiou, 2012. "Linking the interest rate swap markets to the macroeconomic risk: The UK and us evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 38-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:22:y:2012:i:c:p:38-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2012.03.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Shaoyu & Zhu, Chunhui & Shang, Yuhuang, 2023. "Hedging demand and near-zero swap spreads: Evidence from the Chinese interest rate swap market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 170-185.
    2. Quang Nguyen & Trang Kim & Marina Papanastassiou, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, derivatives use, and firm-level FDI," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(1), pages 96-126, January.
    3. Chyi Lin Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming‐Long Lee, 2018. "Low‐frequency volatility of real estate securities and macroeconomic risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 311-342, November.
    4. Steve Y. Yang & Esen Onur, 2018. "Interest Rate Swap Market Complexity and Its Risk Management Implications," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-20, October.
    5. Mitra, Sovan & Date, Paresh & Mamon, Rogemar & Wang, I-Chieh, 2013. "Pricing and risk management of interest rate swaps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 102-111.
    6. Zongjun Wang & Gongkhonkwa Rujira, 2013. "The Dynamic Relationship of Stock Indexes on Interbank Money Market Rates: Evidence from Thailand," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 827-843.
    7. Baker, H. Kent & Kumar, Satish & Goyal, Kirti & Sharma, Anuj, 2021. "International review of financial analysis: A retrospective evaluation between 1992 and 2020," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest Rate Swaps; Low-frequency Volatility; Macroeconomic Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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