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Macroeconomic and Financial Determinants of the Volatility of Corporate Bond Returns

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between the volatility of corporate bond returns and standard financial and macroeconomic indicators reflecting the state of the economy. We employ the GARCHMIDAS multiplicative two-component model of volatility that distinguishes the short-term dynamics from the long-run component of volatility. Both the in-sample and out-of-sample analysis show that recognizing the existence of a stochastic low-frequency component captured by macroeconomic and financial indicators may improve the fit of the model to actual bond return data, relative to the constant long-run component embedded in a typical GARCH model.

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  • Belén Nieto & Alfonso Novales Cinca & Gonzalo Rubio, 2014. "Macroeconomic and Financial Determinants of the Volatility of Corporate Bond Returns," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2014-25, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1425
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    Cited by:

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    2. Richter, Sylvia & Heyde, Frank & Horsch, Andreas & Wünsche, Andreas, 2021. "Determinants of project bond prices – Insights into infrastructure and energy capital markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    3. Wu, Xinyu & Xie, Haibin, 2021. "A realized EGARCH-MIDAS model with higher moments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    4. Crimmel, Jeremy & Elyasiani, Elyas, 2021. "The association between financial market volatility and banking market structure," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 335-349.
    5. Fang, Libing & Yu, Honghai & Xiao, Wen, 2018. "Forecasting gold futures market volatility using macroeconomic variables in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 249-259.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate bonds; Volatility; Low-frequency component; High-frequency component; Macroeconomic indicators; Financial indicators.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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