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Markov Switching Dynamics in REIT Returns: Univariate and Multivariate Evidence on Forecasting Performance

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  • Brad Case
  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Yildiray Yildirim

Abstract

type="main"> We document the presence of Markov switching regimes in expected returns, variances and the implied reward-to-risk ratio of real estate investment trust (REIT) returns and compare them to properties of stocks and bonds. Our evidence suggests that regime switching techniques are more successful over the period 1972–2008 than other time-series models are. When the analysis is extended to a multivariate setting in which REIT, stock and bond returns are modeled jointly, we find that the data call for the specification of four separate regimes. These result from the absence of synchronicity among the regimes that characterize univariate REIT, stock and bond returns.

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  • Brad Case & Massimo Guidolin & Yildiray Yildirim, 2014. "Markov Switching Dynamics in REIT Returns: Univariate and Multivariate Evidence on Forecasting Performance," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 279-342, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:42:y:2014:i:2:p:279-342
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    Cited by:

    1. Haas Markus & Liu Ji-Chun, 2018. "A multivariate regime-switching GARCH model with an application to global stock market and real estate equity returns," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Kim Hiang Liow & Qing Ye, 2018. "Regime dependent volatilities and correlation in international securitized real estate markets," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 457-487, August.
    3. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio & Milena T. Petrova, 2023. "The Predictability of Real Estate Excess Returns: An Out-of-Sample Economic Value Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 108-149, July.
    4. Chyi Lin Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming‐Long Lee, 2018. "Low‐frequency volatility of real estate securities and macroeconomic risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 311-342, November.
    5. Haas, Markus, 2016. "A note on optimal portfolios under regime–switching," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 209-216.
    6. Kim Hiang LIOW & Qing YE, 2017. "Switching Regime Beta Analysis of Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from International Public Real Estate Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 39(1), pages 127-164.
    7. Das, Mahamitra & Kundu, Srikanta & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2019. "Mean and Volatility Spillovers between REIT and Stocks Returns A STVAR-BTGARCH-M Model," MPRA Paper 94707, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin, 2014. "Can Linear Predictability Models Time Bull and Bear Real Estate Markets? Out-of-Sample Evidence from REIT Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 116-164, July.
    9. Sercan Demiralay & Erhan Kilincarslan, 2024. "Uncertainty Measures and Sector-Specific REITs in a Regime-Switching Environment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 545-584, October.
    10. Haas, Markus & Liu, Ji-Chun, 2015. "Theory for a Multivariate Markov--switching GARCH Model with an Application to Stock Markets," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112855, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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