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The determinants of the model-free positive and negative volatilities

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  • Bevilacqua, Mattia
  • Morelli, David
  • Tunaru, Radu

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the role of macroeconomic and financial determinants in explaining stock market volatilities in the U.S. market. Both implied and realized volatility are computed model-free and decomposed into positive and negative components, thereby allowing us to compute directional volatility risk premia. We capture the behaviour of each component of implied volatility and risk premium in relation to their different determinants. The negative implied volatility appears to be linked more towards financial conditions variables such as uncertainty and geopolitical risk indexes, whereas positive implied volatility is driven more by macro variables such as inflation and GDP. There is a clear shift in importance from macro towards financial determinants moving from the pre towards the post financial crisis. A mixed frequency Granger causality approach uncovers causality relationships between volatilities and risk premia and macro variables and vice versa, a finding which is not detected with a conventional low frequency VAR model.

Suggested Citation

  • Bevilacqua, Mattia & Morelli, David & Tunaru, Radu, 2019. "The determinants of the model-free positive and negative volatilities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:92:y:2019:i:c:p:1-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.12.003
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    2. Asif, Zainab & Chinzara, Zivanemoyo & Lahiri, Radhika, 2023. "The role of risk and institutions in the adoption and diffusion of technologies: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 16-33.
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    6. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu, 2021. "The SKEW index: extracting what has been left," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108198, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Implied volatility; Risk premia; Macro variables; Financial variables; Granger causality; Mixed frequency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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