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Testing Second-Order Dynamics for Autoregressive Processes in Presence of Time-Varying Variance

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  • Valentin Patilea
  • Hamdi Raïssi

Abstract

This article considers the volatility modeling for autoregressive univariate time series. A benchmark approach is the stationary autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model of Engle. Motivated by real data evidence, processes with nonconstant unconditional variance and ARCH effects have been recently introduced. We take into account this type of nonstationarity in variance and propose simple testing procedures for ARCH effects. Adaptive McLeod and Li's portmanteau and ARCH-LM tests for checking the presence of such second-order dynamics are provided. The standard versions of these tests, commonly used by practitioners, suppose constant unconditional variance. The failure of these standard tests with time-varying unconditional variance is highlighted. The theoretical results are illustrated by means of simulated and real data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Patilea & Hamdi Raïssi, 2014. "Testing Second-Order Dynamics for Autoregressive Processes in Presence of Time-Varying Variance," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(507), pages 1099-1111, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:109:y:2014:i:507:p:1099-1111
    DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2014.884504
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    2. Hirukawa, Junichi & Raïssi, Hamdi, 2020. "Testing linear relationships between non-constant variances of economic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 182-189.
    3. Harris, David & Kew, Hsein & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2020. "Level shift estimation in the presence of non-stationary volatility with an application to the unit root testing problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 354-388.
    4. Jiang, Feiyu & Li, Dong & Zhu, Ke, 2021. "Adaptive inference for a semiparametric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(2), pages 306-329.
    5. Raïssi, Hamdi, 2018. "Testing normality for unconditionally heteroscedastic macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 140-146.
    6. Feiyu Jiang & Dong Li & Ke Zhu, 2019. "Adaptive inference for a semiparametric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model," Papers 1907.04147, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    7. Hamdi Raissi, 2022. "On the dependence structure of the trade/no trade sequence of illiquid assets," Papers 2203.08223, arXiv.org.
    8. Lionel Truquet, 2017. "Parameter stability and semiparametric inference in time varying auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1391-1414, November.

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