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The term structure of equity and variance risk premia

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  • Aït-Sahalia, Yacine
  • Karaman, Mustafa
  • Mancini, Loriano

Abstract

We study the term structure of variance swaps, equity and variance risk premia. A model-free analysis reveals a significant price jump component in variance swaps. A model-based analysis shows that investors’ willingness to ensure against volatility risk increases after a market drop. This effect is stronger for short maturities, but more persistent for long maturities. During the financial crisis investors demanded large risk premia to hold equities, but the risk premia largely depended on and strongly decreased with the holding horizon. The term structure of equity and variance risk premia responds differently to various economic indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Karaman, Mustafa & Mancini, Loriano, 2020. "The term structure of equity and variance risk premia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 204-230.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:219:y:2020:i:2:p:204-230
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.03.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Qadan, Mahmoud & David, Or & Snunu, Iyad & Shuval, Kerem, 2024. "The VIX's term structure of individual active stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Giulia Di Nunno & Kk{e}stutis Kubilius & Yuliya Mishura & Anton Yurchenko-Tytarenko, 2023. "From constant to rough: A survey of continuous volatility modeling," Papers 2309.01033, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    4. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
    5. Davide E. Avino & Andrei Stancu & Chardin Wese Simen, 2021. "Dissecting Macroeconomic News," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1047-1077, August.
    6. Wu, Bin & Chen, Pengzhan & Ye, Wuyi, 2024. "Variance swaps with mean reversion and multi-factor variance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(1), pages 191-212.
    7. Wujun Lv & Tao Pang & Xiaobao Xia & Jingzhou Yan, 2023. "Dynamic portfolio choice with uncertain rare-events risk in stock and cryptocurrency markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, December.
    8. Oh, Dong Hwan & Park, Yang-Ho, 2023. "GARCH option pricing with volatility derivatives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Willem Thorbecke, 2020. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-30, October.
    10. Yabei Zhu & Xingguo Luo & Qi Xu, 2023. "Industry variance risk premium, cross‐industry correlation, and expected returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 3-32, January.
    11. Xinglin Yang & Ji Chen, 2021. "VIX term structure: The role of jump propagation risks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 785-810, June.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor, 2023. "The jump leverage risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    13. Aşty Al-Jaaf, 2022. "Dividend predictability and higher moment risk premia," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(2), pages 83-99, March.
    14. Li, Shaoyu & Zhang, Yuanyuan & Zhu, Chunhui, 2021. "A closed-form exact solution for pricing fixed-income variance swaps with affine-jump model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Variance swap; Stochastic volatility; Likelihood approximation; Term structure; Equity risk premium; Variance risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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