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Financial market linkages and the sovereign debt crisis

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  • Campos-Martins, Susana
  • Amado, Cristina

Abstract

We develop a novel approach to investigate the presence of financial contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis. The novelty lies in modelling bond yield market comovements allowing the individual long-run variances to be time-dependent and the correlations to change smoothly between two extreme states according to time and observable financial variables. The new model has the flexibility to discern between long-run and short-run contagion effects on the basis of the variable used as indicator for the time-variation in correlations. The main results provide evidence of long-run contagion effects across peripheral countries following the more acute phase of the sovereign crisis.

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  • Campos-Martins, Susana & Amado, Cristina, 2022. "Financial market linkages and the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:123:y:2022:i:c:s0261560621002473
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102596
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial contagion; European sovereign debt crisis; Multivariate GARCH model; Dynamic correlations; Multiplicative decomposition of volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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