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What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?

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  • Panagiotidis, Theodore
  • Printzis, Panagiotis

Abstract

We investigate the effect of uncertainty on investment. We employ a unique dataset of 25000 Greek firms’ balance sheets for 14 years covering the period before and after the eurozone crisis. A dynamic factor model is employed to proxy uncertainty. The investment performance of 14 sectors is examined within a dynamic investment model. Robust GMM estimates of the investment rate model reveal a high degree of heterogeneity among these sectors. Overall uncertainty affects negatively investment performance and this effect substantially increased in the years of crisis. Agriculture and Mining are the least affected and the most affected ones include Manufacturing, Real Estate and Hotels. Focusing on the response of investment to uncertainty, it emerges that (relative) smaller firms are affected more compared to larger ones.

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  • Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2019. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102648, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:102648
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Dimitrios Bakas & Marilou Ioakimidis, 2023. "Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4194-4219, October.
    2. Thomas A. Alexopoulos & Henry Thompson, 2021. "A macroeconomic simulation for Greece in the wake of its government debt crisis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 699-716, August.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta & Göcke, Matthias, 2020. "Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment – Evidence for the Euro Area," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 19-39.
    4. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Investment and uncertainty: Are large firms different from small ones?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 302-317.
    5. Chisiridis, Konstantinos & Mouratidis, Kostas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "The north-south divide, the euro and the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Akron, Sagi & Demir, Ender & Díez-Esteban, José María & García-Gómez, Conrado Diego, 2022. "How does uncertainty affect corporate investment inefficiency? Evidence from Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Matthew W Clance & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kweku Kyei, 2020. "Predicting firm-level volatility in the United States: the role of monetary policy uncertainty," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 167-177.
    8. Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres, 2023. "Political referenda and investment: Evidence from Scotland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Laliotis, Ioannis, 2019. "Did the economic adjustment programmes deliver wage flexibility in Greece?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102653, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Investment and uncertainty: Are large firms different from small ones?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 302-317.
    11. Rola Elkabbani & Christian Richter & Mona ElBannan, 2020. "Determining dividend payouts of the MENA banking industry: a probit approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 221-229.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greek firms; uncertainty; volatility; GMM; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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