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Erik Christopher Snowberg

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," IZA Discussion Papers 1996, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Mentioned in:

    1. Elezioni Usa 2016, Hillary Clinton o Donald Trump? Così reagiranno i mercati finanziari
      by Lavoce.info in Il Fatto Quotidiano on 2016-11-09 02:40:45
    2. Hillary o the Donald? Così reagiranno i mercati finanziari
      by Rony Hamaui in La Voce on 2016-11-08 17:00:49

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers, 2010. "Explaining the Favorite-Long Shot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(4), pages 723-746, August.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Explaining the Favorite–Long Shot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions? (JPE 2010) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Jonathan Chapman & Mark Dean & Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg & Colin Camerer, 2023. "Willingness to Accept, Willingness to Pay, and Loss Aversion," NBER Working Papers 30836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Taisuke Imai & Klaus M. Schmidt, 2023. "Loss Aversion," ISER Discussion Paper 1218, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    2. Taisuke Imai & Klaus Schmidt, 2023. "Loss Aversion," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 461, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    3. Changkuk Im, 2023. "Accurate Quality Elicitation in a Multi-Attribute Choice Setting," Papers 2309.00114, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.

  2. Matthew O. Jackson & Stephen M. Nei & Erik Snowberg & Leeat Yariv, 2022. "The Dynamics of Networks and Homophily," NBER Working Papers 30815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Lorenzo Ductor & Anja Prummer, 2022. "Gender Homophily, Collaboration, and Output," ThE Papers 22/18, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..

  3. Jonathan Chapman & Erik Snowberg & Stephanie W. Wang & Colin Camerer, 2022. "Looming Large or Seeming Small? Attitudes Towards Losses in a Representative Sample," NBER Working Papers 30243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Gallo, Edoardo & Barak, Darija & Langtry, Alastair, 2023. "Social distancing in networks: A web-based interactive experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Sanjit Dhami & Narges Hajimoladarvish & Konstantinos Georgalos, 2023. "Precautionary Savings, Loss Aversion, and Risk: Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10570, CESifo.
    3. Duraj, Jetlir & He, Kevin, 2024. "Dynamic information preference and communication with diminishing sensitivity over news," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 19(3), July.

  4. Allan Drazen & Anna Dreber Almenberg & Erkut Y. Ozbay & Erik Snowberg, 2019. "A Journal-Based Replication of “Being Chosen to Lead”," NBER Working Papers 26444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Butera & Philip J Grossman & Daniel Houser & John A List & Marie Claire Villeval, 2020. "A New Mechanism to Alleviate the Crises of Confidence in Science With An Application to the Public Goods GameA Review," Working Papers halshs-02512932, HAL.
    2. Luigi Butera & Philip J. Grossman & Daniel Houser & John A. List & Marie Claire Villeval, 2020. "A New Mechanism to Alleviate the Crises of Confidence in Science - With an Application to the Public Goods Game," Monash Economics Working Papers 03-20, Monash University, Department of Economics.

  5. Erik Snowberg & Leeat Yariv, 2018. "Testing the Waters: Behavior across Participant Pools," NBER Working Papers 24781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Engelmann, Dirk & Janeba, Eckhard & Mechtenberg, Lydia & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2023. "Preferences over taxation of high-income individuals: Evidence from a survey experiment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. Theodor Vladasel & Simon C. Parker & Randolph Sloof & Mirjam van Praag, 2024. "Revenue drift, incentives, and effort allocation in social enterprises," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 630-651, August.
    3. Gary Bolton & Eugen Dimant & Ulrich Schmidt, 2019. "When a Nudge Backfires:Using Observation with Social and Economic Incentives to Promote Pro-Social Behavior," Discussion Papers 2019-03, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    4. Eugen Dimant & Gerben A. van Kleef & Shaul Shalvi, 2019. "Requiem for a Nudge: Framing Effects in Nudging Honesty," Discussion Papers 2019-14, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    5. Cristina Bicchieri & Eugen Dimant & Erte Xiao, 2018. "Deviant or Wrong? The Effects of Norm Information on the Efficacy of Punishment," PPE Working Papers 0016, Philosophy, Politics and Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Müller, Stephan & Rau, Holger A., 2021. "Economic preferences and compliance in the social stress test of the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    7. Niklas Potrafke, 2019. "Risk aversion, patience and intelligence: Evidence based on macro data," ifo Working Paper Series 295, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Gagnon, Nickolas & Bosmans, Kristof & Riedl, Arno, 2020. "The Effect of Unfair Chances and Gender Discrimination on Labor Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 12912, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Page, Lionel & Sarkar, Dipanwita & Silva-Goncalves, Juliana, 2019. "Long-lasting effects of relative age at school," Working Papers 2019-06, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    10. Schulz, Jonathan F. & Sunde, Uwe & Thiemann, Petra & Thöni, Christian, 2019. "Selection into Experiments: Evidence from a Population of Students," IZA Discussion Papers 12807, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Salvatore Nunnari & Giovanni Montari, 2019. "Audi Alteram Partem: An Experiment on Selective Exposure to Information," Working Papers 650, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    12. Stefano DellaVigna & Devin Pope, 2019. "Stability of Experimental Results: Forecasts and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 25858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Herz, Holger & Kistler, Deborah & Zehnder, Christian & Zihlmann, Christian, 2022. "Hindsight Bias and Trust in Government: Evidence from the United States," FSES Working Papers 526, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    14. Nathan Barrymore & Cristian L. Dezső & Benjamin C. King, 2022. "Gender and competitiveness when earning for others: Experimental evidence and implications for sponsorship," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 905-934, May.
    15. John Ifcher & Homa Zarghamee & Dan Houser & Lina Diaz, 2020. "The relative income effect: an experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(4), pages 1205-1234, December.
    16. Jonathan Chapman & Erik Snowberg & Stephanie Wang & Colin Camerer, 2018. "Loss Attitudes in the U.S. Population: Evidence from Dynamically Optimized Sequential Experimentation (DOSE)," NBER Working Papers 25072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Holger Herz & Deborah Kistler & Christian Zehnder & Christian Zihlmann, 2022. "Hindsight Bias and Trust in Government," CESifo Working Paper Series 9767, CESifo.
    18. Kaisa Kotakorpi & Satu Metsälampi & Topi Miettinen & Tuomas Nurminen, 2019. "The effect of reporting institutions on tax evasion:Evidence from the lab," Discussion Papers 127, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    19. Andreas C. Drichoutis & Veronika Grimm & Alexandros Karakostas, 2020. "Bribing to Queue-Jump: An experiment on cultural differences in bribing attitudes among Greeks and Germans," Working Papers 2020-2, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    20. Goeschl, Timo & Kettner, Sara Elisa & Lohse, Johannes & Schwieren, Christiane, 2020. "How much can we learn about voluntary climate action from behavior in public goods games?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    21. Shachat, Jason & Walker, Matthew J. & Wei, Lijia, 2021. "How the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic impacted pro-social behaviour and individual preferences: Experimental evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 480-494.
    22. Gary E. Bolton & Eugen Dimant & Ulrich Schmidt, 2020. "When a Nudge Backfires: Combining (Im)Plausible Deniability with Social and Economic Incentives to Promote Behavioral Change," CESifo Working Paper Series 8070, CESifo.
    23. Batrancea, Larissa M. & Kudła, Janusz & Błaszczak, Barbara & Kopyt, Mateusz, 2022. "Differences in tax evasion attitudes between students and entrepreneurs under the slippery slope framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 464-482.
    24. Marcus Giamattei & Kyanoush Seyed Yahosseini & Simon Gächter & Lucas Molleman, 2020. "LIONESS Lab: a free web-based platform for conducting interactive experiments online," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 6(1), pages 95-111, June.

  6. Jonathan Chapman & Erik Snowberg & Stephanie Wang & Colin Camerer, 2018. "Loss Attitudes in the U.S. Population: Evidence from Dynamically Optimized Sequential Experimentation (DOSE)," NBER Working Papers 25072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Zhuo Chen & Russell Golman & Jason Somerville, 2024. "Menu-dependent risk attitudes: Theory and evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 77-105, February.
    2. Christina Korting & Carl Lieberman & Jordan Matsudaira & Zhuan Pei & Yi Shen, 2020. "Visual Inference and Graphical Representation in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Working Papers 638, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    3. Taisuke Imai & Tom A Rutter & Colin F Camerer, 2021. "Meta-Analysis of Present-Bias Estimation using Convex Time Budgets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1788-1814.
    4. D.J. da Cunha Batista Geraldes & Franziska Heinicke & Duk Gyoo Kim, 2021. "Big and Small Lies," Working Papers 2103, Utrecht School of Economics.
    5. Ola Andersson & H�kan J. Holm & Jean-Robert Tyran & Erik Wengström, 2018. "Robust Inference in Risk Elicitation Tasks," Discussion Papers 18-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    6. Falk, Armin & Becker, Anke & Dohmen, Thomas & Huffman, David B. & Sunde, Uwe, 2016. "The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences," IZA Discussion Papers 9674, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Alexander, L. Brown & Taisuke Imai & Ferdinand M. Vieider & Colin Camerer, 2021. "Meta-Analysis of Empirical Estimates of Loss-Aversion," CESifo Working Paper Series 8848, CESifo.
    8. Niklas Potrafke, 2019. "Risk aversion, patience and intelligence: Evidence based on macro data," ifo Working Paper Series 295, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    9. Amador, Luis & Brañas-Garza, Pablo & Espín, Antonio M. & Garcia, Teresa & Hernández, Ana, 2019. "Consistent and inconsistent choices under uncertainty: The role of cognitive abilities," MPRA Paper 95178, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Robert Finger & Viviana Garcia & Chloe McCallum & Jens Rommel, 2024. "A note on European farmers' preferences under cumulative prospect theory," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 465-472, February.
    11. Amador-Hidalgo, Luis & Brañas-Garza, Pablo & Espín, Antonio M. & García-Muñoz, Teresa & Hernández-Román, Ana, 2021. "Cognitive abilities and risk-taking: Errors, not preferences," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Yariv, Leeat & Reshidi, Pellumb & Lizzeri, Alessandro & Chan, Jimmy & Suen, Wing, 2021. "Individual and Collective Information Acquisition: An Experimental Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 16782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Timothy N. Cason & Daniel Woods & Mustafa Abdallah & Saurabh Bagechi & Shreyas Sundaram, 2021. "Network Defense and Behavior Biases: An Experimental Study," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1328, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    14. Pablo Bra~nas-Garza & Lorenzo Ductor & Jarom'ir Kov'ar'ik, 2022. "The role of unobservable characteristics in friendship network formation," Papers 2206.13641, arXiv.org.
    15. Nicholas C. Barberis & Lawrence J. Jin & Baolian Wang, 2020. "Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 27155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Dietmar Fehr & Yannick Reichlin, 2021. "Status, Control Beliefs, and Risk-Taking," CESifo Working Paper Series 9253, CESifo.
    17. Bnaya Dreyfuss & Ori Heffetz & Matthew Rabin, 2019. "Expectations-Based Loss Aversion May Help Explain Seemingly Dominated Choices in Strategy-Proof Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 26394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Tomoki Fujii & Christine Ho & Rohan Ray & Abu S. Shonchoy, 2021. "Conditional Cash Transfer, Loss Framing, and SMS Nudges: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment in Bangladesh," Working Papers 2109, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    19. Thomas Meissner & Xavier Gassmann & Corinne Faure & Joachim Schleich, 2023. "Individual characteristics associated with risk and time preferences: A multi country representative survey," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 77-107, February.
    20. Olivier L'Haridon & Craig S. Webb & Horst Zank, 2021. "An Effective and Simple Tool for Measuring Loss Aversion," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2107, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    21. Fortin, Ines & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2022. "Prospect theory and asset allocation," IHS Working Paper Series 42, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    22. Xiaoxue Sherry Gao & Glenn W. Harrison & Rusty Tchernis, 2023. "Behavioral welfare economics and risk preferences: a Bayesian approach," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 273-303, April.
    23. Ohk, Seungbin & Ju, Biung-Ghi, 2021. "Capitalizing on prospect theory value: The Asian developed stock markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    24. Elgin, Ceyhun & Torul, Orhan & Aydoğdu, Ertunç, 2021. "Risky choices in a natural experiment from Turkey: Var Mısın Yok Musun?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    25. Sanjit Dhami & Narges Hajimoladarvish, 2020. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Tax Evasion: Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8606, CESifo.
    26. Choi, Kyoung Jin & Jeon, Junkee & Koo, Hyeng Keun, 2022. "Intertemporal preference with loss aversion: Consumption and risk-attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    27. Stefano Balietti & Brennan Klein & Christoph Riedl, 2021. "Optimal design of experiments to identify latent behavioral types," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(3), pages 772-799, September.
    28. Emily A. Beam & Yusufcan Masatlioglu & Tara Watson & Dean Yang, 2022. "Loss Aversion or Lack of Trust: Why Does Loss Framing Work to Encourage Preventative Health Behaviors?," NBER Working Papers 29828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Fidanoski, Filip & Johnson, Timothy, 2023. "A z-Tree implementation of the Dynamic Experiments for Estimating Preferences [DEEP] method," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    30. Nicholas Barberis & Lawrence J. Jin & Baolian Wang, 2021. "Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2639-2687, October.
    31. Hoffmann, Christin & Thommes, Kirsten, 2020. "Using loss aversion to incentivize energy efficiency in a principal–agent context — Evidence from a field experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).

  7. Andrea Mattozzi & Erik Snowberg, 2018. "The Right Type of Legislator: A Theory of Taxation and Representation," NBER Working Papers 24279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Auerbach, Jan, 2022. "Productive Office and Political Elitism," MPRA Paper 114582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Delgado-Vega, Álvaro, 2024. "Persistence in power of long-lived parties," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    3. Frank, Marco & Stadelmann, David, 2021. "More federal legislators lead to more resources for their constituencies: Evidence from exogenous differences in seat allocations," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 230-243.
    4. Nobuhiro Mizuno & Ryosuke Okazawa, 2022. "Why do voters elect less qualified candidates?," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 34(3), pages 443-477, July.
    5. Gianmarco Daniele & Amedeo Piolatto & Willem Sas, 2018. "Who Sent You? Strategic Voting, Transfers and Bailouts in a Federation," Working Papers. Serie AD 2018-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    6. Jan Auerbach, 2018. "Office-Holding Premia and Representative Democracy," Discussion Papers 1802, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    7. Gianmarco Daniele & Amedeo Piolatto & Willem Sas, 2020. "Does the winner take it all? Redistributive policies and political extremism," Working Papers 2020/01, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).

  8. Jonathan Chapman & Mark Dean & Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg & Colin Camerer, 2018. "Econographics," NBER Working Papers 24931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Halevy, Yoram & Ozdenoren, Emre, 2008. "Uncertainty and Compound Lotteries: Calibration," Microeconomics.ca working papers yoram_halevy-2008-7, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 17 Jun 2008.
    2. Christopher P. Chambers & Federico Echenique & Nicolas Lambert, 2019. "Recovering Preferences from Finite Data," Papers 1909.05457, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    3. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Keigo Inukai & Takehito Masuda & Yuta Shimodaira, 2021. "Participants’ Characteristics at ISER-Lab in 2020," ISER Discussion Paper 1141, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    4. Tomáš Jagelka, 2024. "Are Economists’ Preferences Psychologists’ Personality Traits? A Structural Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(3), pages 910-970.
    5. Basu, Pathikrit & Echenique, Federico, 2020. "On the falsifiability and learnability of decision theories," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(4), November.

  9. Jonathan Chapman & Mark Dean & Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg & Colin Camerer, 2017. "Willingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept are Probably Less Correlated Than You Think," NBER Working Papers 23954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Chapman & Mark Dean & Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg & Colin Camerer, 2018. "Econographics," CESifo Working Paper Series 7202, CESifo.
      • Jonathan Chapman & Mark Dean & Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg & Colin Camerer, 2018. "Econographics," NBER Working Papers 24931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christopher P. Chambers & Federico Echenique & Nicolas S. Lambert, 2023. "Recovering utility," Papers 2301.11492, arXiv.org.
    3. Smith, Alec, 2019. "Lagged beliefs and reference-dependent utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 331-340.
    4. Christina McGranaghan & Steven G. Otto, 2022. "Choice uncertainty and the endowment effect," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 83-104, August.
    5. Otto, Philipp E. & Schmidt, Lennard, 2021. "Reservation price uncertainty: Loss, virtue, or emotional heterogeneity?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Guney, Begum & Richter, Michael & Tsur, Matan, 2018. "Aspiration-based choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 935-956.
    7. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Marc A. Ragin & Justin R. Sydnor, 2019. "Predicting Insurance Demand from Risk Attitudes," NBER Working Papers 26508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jonathan Chapman & Erik Snowberg & Stephanie Wang & Colin Camerer, 2018. "Loss Attitudes in the U.S. Population: Evidence from Dynamically Optimized Sequential Experimentation (DOSE)," NBER Working Papers 25072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jeffrey R. Brown & Arie Kapteyn & Erzo F. P. Luttmer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Anya Samek, 2021. "Behavioral Impediments to Valuing Annuities: Complexity and Choice Bracketing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 533-546, July.
    10. Flynn, James, 2022. "Salary disclosure and individual effort: Evidence from the National Hockey League," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 471-497.
    11. Basu, Pathikrit & Echenique, Federico, 2020. "On the falsifiability and learnability of decision theories," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(4), November.
    12. Jonathan Chapman & Mark Dean & Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg & Colin Camerer, 2020. "Econographics," Working Papers 2020-75, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    13. Jonathan Chapman & Mark Dean & Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg & Colin Camerer, 2021. "On the Relation between Willingness to Accept and Willingness to Pay," Working Papers 2021-90, Princeton University. Economics Department..

  10. Abhijit Banerjee & Sylvain Chassang & Sergio Montero & Erik Snowberg, 2017. "A Theory of Experimenters," NBER Working Papers 23867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Carneiro & Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Daniel Wilhelm, 2017. "Optimal data collection for randomized control trials," CeMMAP working papers CWP15/17, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Eliaz, Kfir & Spiegler, Ran, 2022. "On incentive-compatible estimators," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 204-220.
    3. Davide Viviano, 2020. "Experimental Design under Network Interference," Papers 2003.08421, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    4. Luc Behaghel & Karen Macours & Julie Subervie, 2018. "Can RCTs help improve the design of CAP," Post-Print hal-02112625, HAL.
    5. Pablo Balán & Augustin Bergeron & Gabriel Tourek & Jonathan L. Weigel, 2022. "Local Elites as State Capacity: How City Chiefs Use Local Information to Increase Tax Compliance in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(3), pages 762-797, March.
    6. Luc Behaghel & Karen Macours & Julie Subervie, 2019. "How can randomised controlled trials help improve the design of the common agricultural policy?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 46(3), pages 473-493.
    7. Deaton, Angus & Cartwright, Nancy, 2018. "Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 2-21.
    8. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2018. "The Model Selection Curse," Papers 1810.02888, arXiv.org.
    9. Weigel, Jonathan & Balán, Pablo & Bergeron, Augustin & Tourek, Gabriel, 2020. "Local Elites as State Capacity: How City Chiefs Use Local Information to Increase Tax Compliance in the D.R. Congo," CEPR Discussion Papers 15138, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

  11. Abhijit Banerjee & Sylvain Chassang & Erik Snowberg, 2016. "Decision Theoretic Approaches to Experiment Design and External Validity," NBER Working Papers 22167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. James Andreoni & Michael Callen & Karrar Hussain & Muhammad Khan & Charles Sprenger, 2016. "Using Preference Estimates to Customize Incentives: An Application to Polio Vaccination Drives in Pakistan," Natural Field Experiments 00570, The Field Experiments Website.
    2. de Souza Leão, Luciana & Eyal, Gil, 2020. "Searching under the streetlight: A historical perspective on the rise of randomistas," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Abhijit Banerjee & Rukmini Banerji & James Berry & Esther Duflo & Harini Kannan & Shobhini Mukerji & Marc Shotland & Michael Walton, 2017. "From Proof of Concept to Scalable Policies: Challenges and Solutions, with an Application," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 73-102, Fall.
    4. Moshe Justman, 2016. "Economic Research and Education Policy: Project STAR and Class Size Reduction," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2016n37, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Deaton, Angus & Cartwright, Nancy, 2018. "Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 2-21.
    6. Marcelo Arbex & Justin M. Carre & Shawn N. Geniole & Enlinson Mattos, 2018. "Testosterone, personality traits and tax evasion," Working Papers 1801, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    7. Justman, Moshe, 2018. "Randomized controlled trials informing public policy: Lessons from project STAR and class size reduction," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 167-174.
    8. Mark Rosenzweig & Christopher Udry, 2016. "External Validity in a Stochastic World," Working Papers 1054, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    9. James Andreoni & Michael Callen & Muhammad Karrar Hussain & Muhammad Yasir Khan & Charles Sprenger, 2017. "Creating Investment Scheme with State Space Modeling ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1039, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    10. Arbex, Marcelo Aarestru & Carré, Justin M. & Geniole, Shawn N. & Mattos, Enlinson, 2018. "Tax evasion, testosterone and personality traits," Textos para discussão 466, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    11. Kannan Perumal, 2021. "Rent seeking, supervisor approvals and conventional corruption control approach—an Indian experience," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 23(2), pages 357-376, December.
    12. Susan Athey & Guido Imbens, 2016. "The State of Applied Econometrics - Causality and Policy Evaluation," Papers 1607.00699, arXiv.org.
    13. Heiland, Frank & Korenman, Sanders & Smith, Rachel A., 2019. "Estimating the educational consequences of teenage childbearing: Identification, heterogeneous effects and the value of biological relationship information," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 15-28.
    14. Troost, Christian & Huber, Robert & Bell, Andrew R. & van Delden, Hedwig & Filatova, Tatiana & Le, Quang Bao & Lippe, Melvin & Niamir, Leila & Polhill, J. Gareth & Sun, Zhanli & Berger, Thomas, 2023. "How to keep it adequate: A protocol for ensuring validity in agent-based simulation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 159, pages 1-21.
    15. Aufenanger, Tobias, 2018. "Treatment allocation for linear models," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 14/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics, revised 2018.

  12. Ben Gillen & Erik Snowberg & Leeat Yariv, 2015. "Experimenting with Measurement Error: Techniques with Applications to the Caltech Cohort Study," NBER Working Papers 21517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Roman Inderst & Kiryl Khalmetski & Axel Ockenfels, 2019. "Sharing Guilt: How Better Access to Information May Backfire," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(7), pages 3322-3336, July.
    2. Hunt Allcott & Benjamin Lockwood & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2019. "Regressive Sin Taxes, With an Application to the Optimal Soda Tax," NBER Working Papers 25841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Maggiori, Matteo & Ströbel, Johannes & Giglio, Stefano & Utkus, Stephen P., 2019. "Five Facts About Beliefs and Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 13657, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Andrew J. Healy & Mikael Persson & Erik Snowberg, 2016. "Digging into the Pocketbook: Evidence on Economic Voting from Income Registry Data Matched to a Voter Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6171, CESifo.
    5. van Veldhuizen, Roel, 2022. "Gender Differences in Tournament Choices: Risk Preferences, Overconfidence or Competitiveness?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(4), pages 1595-1618.
    6. Buser, Thomas & Ranehill, Eva & van Veldhuizen, Roel, 2021. "Gender differences in willingness to compete: The role of public observability," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 83, pages 1-1.
    7. Buser, Thomas & Dreber, Anna & Mollerstrom, Johanna, 2017. "The impact of stress on tournament entry," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 506-530.
    8. Jonathan Chapman & Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg & Colin Camerer & Mark Dean, 2017. "Willingness-To-Pay and Willingness-To-Accept are Probably Less Correlated than You Think," CESifo Working Paper Series 6492, CESifo.
    9. Fehr, Dietmar & Schmid, Julia, 2014. "Exclusion in the all-pay auction: An experimental investigation," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2014-206, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    10. Thomas Buser & Huaiping Yuan, 2019. "Do Women Give Up Competing More Easily? Evidence from the Lab and the Dutch Math Olympiad," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 225-252, July.
    11. Jeffrey Flory & Uri Gneezy & Kenneth Leonard & John List, 2017. "Gender, Age, and Competition: a Disappearing Gap?," Artefactual Field Experiments 00611, The Field Experiments Website.
    12. Filippin, Antonio & Gioia, Francesca, 2017. "Competition and Subsequent Risk-Taking Behaviour: Heterogeneity across Gender and Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 10792, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Stone, Daniel, 2018. ""Unmotivated Bias" and Partisan Hostility: Empirical Evidence," SocArXiv hr5ba, Center for Open Science.
    14. Benjamin Enke & Ricardo Rodríguez-Padilla & Florian Zimmermann, 2023. "Moral Universalism and the Structure of Ideology," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(4), pages 1934-1962.
    15. Thomas Buser & Louis Putterman & Joël van der Weele, 2016. "Gender and Redistribution: Experimental Evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-063/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Jonathan P. Beauchamp & David Cesarini & Magnus Johannesson, 2017. "The psychometric and empirical properties of measures of risk preferences," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 203-237, June.
    17. Carpenter, Jeffrey P. & Frank, Rachel & Huet-Vaughn, Emiliano, 2017. "Gender Differences in Interpersonal and Intrapersonal Competitive Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 10626, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Coren L. Apicella & Elif E. Demiral & Johanna Mollerstrom, 2017. "No Gender Difference in Willingness to Compete When Competing against Self," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 136-140, May.
    19. Bruno Wichmann & Peter Boxall & Scott Wilson & Orsolya Pergery, 2017. "Auctioning Risky Conservation Contracts," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(4), pages 1111-1144, December.
    20. Shigeoka, Hitoshi & Yamada, Katsunori, 2019. "Income-comparison attitudes in the United States and the United Kingdom: Evidence from discrete-choice experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 414-438.
    21. Thomas Buser, 2016. "How does the Gender Difference in Willingness to Compete evolve with Experience?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-017/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Anya Samek, 2015. "Gender Differences in Job Entry Decisions: A University-Wide Field Experiment," Natural Field Experiments 00419, The Field Experiments Website.
    23. Buser, Thomas & Cappelen, Alexander & Tungodden, Bertil, 2021. "Fairness and Willingness to Compete," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 8/2021, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    24. Castillo, Marco & Jordan, Jeffrey L. & Petrie, Ragan, 2018. "Children’s rationality, risk attitudes and field behavior," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 62-81.
    25. Brocas, Isabelle & Carrillo, Juan D. & Tarrasó, Jorge, 2018. "How long is a minute?," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 305-322.
    26. Emel Filiz-Ozbay & John C. Ham & John H. Kagel & Erkut Y. Ozbay, 2018. "The role of cognitive ability and personality traits for men and women in gift exchange outcomes," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 21(3), pages 650-672, September.

  13. Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg, 2013. "Overconfidence in Political Behavior," NBER Working Papers 19250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Tavares, José & Pereira Dos Santos, Joao & Vicente, Pedro, 2019. "Can ATMs Get Out the Vote? Evidence from a Nationwide Field Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 13991, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2018. "Does Ignorance of Economic Returns and Costs Explain the Educational Aspiration Gap? Evidence from Representative Survey Experiments," IZA Discussion Papers 11453, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Alabrese , Eleonora & Fetzer, Thiemo, 2024. "Opinion Polls, Turnout and the Demand for Safe Seats," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1494, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    4. Maxime Menuet & Petros Sekeris, 2021. "Overconfidence and conflict," Post-Print hal-03532938, HAL.
    5. Frick, Mira & , & Ishii, Yuhta, 2021. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 16788, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Daiki Kishishita & Atsushi Yamagishi & Tomoko Matsumoto, 2021. "Overconfidence, Income-Ability Gap, and Preferences for Income Equality," Working Papers e159, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    7. Degan, Arianna & Li, Ming, 2015. "Psychologically-based voting with uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 242-259.
    8. Minardi, Stefania & Savochkin, Andrei, 2019. "Subjective contingencies and limited Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-45.
    9. André de Palma & Gordon M. Myers & Yorgos Y. Papageorgiou, 2023. "Imperfect public choice," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1413-1429, November.
    10. Pannenberg, Markus & Friehe, Tim, 2019. "Does it really get better with age? Life-cycle patterns of confidence in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203497, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Dominik M. Piehlmaier, 2022. "Overconfidence and the adoption of robo-advice: why overconfident investors drive the expansion of automated financial advice," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    12. Alice Hsiaw & Ing-Haw Cheng, 2016. "Distrust in Experts and the Origins of Disagreement," Working Papers 110R2, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Jan 2017.
    13. McMurray, Joseph, 2017. "Voting as communicating: Mandates, multiple candidates, and the signaling voter's curse," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 199-223.
    14. Frick, Mira & , & Ishii, Yuhta, 2021. "Dispersed Behavior and Perceptions in Assortative Societies," CEPR Discussion Papers 16789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Attanasi, Giuseppe Marco & Corazzini, Luca & Passarelli, Francesco, 2010. "Voting as a Lottery," TSE Working Papers 09-116, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Nov 2010.
    16. Antony Millner & Hélène Ollivier, 2016. "Beliefs, Politics, and Environmental Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 226-244.
    17. Giulia Papini, 2023. "Majority Rule Determination and Uncertainty Aversion: A Critical Systematic Review," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 7(1), pages 19-24, November.
    18. Jan Janku & Jan Libich, 2018. "Ignorance isn’t bliss: Uninformed voters drive budget cycles," CAMA Working Papers 2018-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Buechel, Berno & Mechtenberg, Lydia, 2015. "The Swing Voter's Curse in Social Networks," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 29, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    20. Katharina Werner, 2019. "The Role of Information for Public Preferences on Education – Evidence from Representative Survey Experiments," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 82.
    21. Philipp Lergetporer & Katharina Werner & Ludger Woessmann, 2021. "Does Ignorance of Economic Returns and Costs Explain the Educational Aspiration Gap? Representative Evidence from Adults and Adolescents," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(351), pages 624-670, July.
    22. Cantoni, Davide & Heizlsperger, Louis-Jonas & Yang, David Y. & Yuchtman, Noam & Zhang, Y. Jane, 2022. "The fundamental determinants of protest participation: Evidence from Hong Kong’s antiauthoritarian movement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    23. Cuimin Ba, 2021. "Robust Misspecified Models and Paradigm Shifts," Papers 2106.12727, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    24. Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda, 2017. "Optimal Term Length For An Overconfident Central Banker," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(01), pages 179-192, March.
    25. Christoph Drobner, 2020. "Motivated Beliefs and Anticipation of Uncertainty Resolution," Munich Papers in Political Economy 07, Munich School of Politics and Public Policy and the School of Management at the Technical University of Munich.
    26. Maxime MENUET, 2016. "Does Overconfidence Drag Out War?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2394, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    27. Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg, 2015. "Overconfidence in Political Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 504-535, February.
    28. Simplice A. Asongu & Stella-Maris I. Orim & Rexon T. Nting, 2019. "Terrorism and Social Media: Global Evidence," Journal of Global Information Technology Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 208-228, July.
    29. Arni, Patrick & Dragone, Davide & Götte, Lorenz & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2020. "Biased Health Perceptions and Risky Health Behaviors: Theory and Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 13308, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    30. Maxim Senkov & Toygar T. Kerman, 2024. "Changing Simplistic Worldviews," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp773, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    31. Gersbach, Hans & Jackson, Matthew O. & Muller, Philippe & Tejada, Oriol, 2020. "Electoral Competition with Costly Policy Changes: A Dynamic Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 14858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Heinemann, Friedrich & Janeba, Eckhard & Todtenhaupt, Maximilian, 2022. "Incumbency and expectations of fiscal rule compliance: Evidence from surveys of German policy makers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    33. Friehe, Tim & Pannenberg, Markus, 2019. "Overconfidence over the lifespan: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    34. Mattozzi, Andrea & Snowberg, Erik, 2018. "The right type of legislator: A theory of taxation and representation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 54-65.
    35. Sven Gruener, 2024. "Determinants of Gullibility to Misinformation: A Study of Climate Change, COVID-19 and Artificial Intelligence," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 36(1), pages 58-78, January.
    36. Michael Muthukrishna & Joseph Henrich & Wataru Toyokawa & Takeshi Hamamura & Tatsuya Kameda & Steven J Heine, 2018. "Overconfidence is universal? Elicitation of Genuine Overconfidence (EGO) procedure reveals systematic differences across domain, task knowledge, and incentives in four populations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-30, August.
    37. Denter, Philipp & Dumav, Martin & Ginzburg, Boris, 2019. "Social Connectivity, Media Bias, and Correlation Neglect," MPRA Paper 97626, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Fedyk, Anastassia & Hodson, James, 2023. "When can the market identify old news?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 92-113.
    39. Grewenig, Elisabeth & Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2019. "Do Party Positions Affect the Public\'s Policy Preferences?," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 149, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    40. Piehlmaier, Dominik M. & Stagno, Emanuela & Nagy, Agnes, 2023. "Overconfidence at the time of COVID-19:Does it lead to laxer attitudes?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    41. Pleshcheva, Vlada & Klapper, Daniel & Dannewald, Till, 2019. "On Factors of Consumer Heterogeneity in (Mis)Valuation of Future Energy Costs: Evidence for the German Automobile Market," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 140, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    42. Don A Moore & Derek Schatz, 2020. "Overprecision increases subsequent surprise," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-12, July.
    43. Thomas Fujiwara & Carlos Sanz, 2017. "Norms in Bargaining: Evidence from Government Formation in Spain," NBER Working Papers 24137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Ben Lockwood & James Rockey, 2020. "Negative Voters? Electoral Competition with Loss-Aversion," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(632), pages 2619-2648.
    45. Julia Partheymüller & Sylvia Kritzinger & Carolina Plescia, 2022. "Misinformedness about the European Union and the Preference to Vote to Leave or Remain," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(5), pages 1449-1469, September.
    46. Gruener, Sven, 2021. "Susceptibility to misinformation: a study of climate change, Covid-19, and artificial intelligence," SocArXiv x8efq, Center for Open Science.
    47. Fernandez, Marcelo Ariel & Mayskaya, Tatiana & Nikandrova, Arina, 2024. "Imposing commitment to rein in overconfidence in learning," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 29-48.
    48. José Luis Montiel Olea & Pietro Ortoleva & Mallesh Pai & Andrea Prat, 2021. "Competing Models," Working Papers 2021-89, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    49. Prat, Andrea & Montiel Olea , José Luis & Ortoleva, Pietro & Pai, Mallesh, 2019. "Competing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14066, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Jose Luis Montiel Olea & Pietro Ortoleva & Mallesh M Pai & Andrea Prat, 2019. "Competing Models," Papers 1907.03809, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    50. López-Pérez, Raúl & Pintér, Ágnes & Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío, 2022. "Some conditions (not) affecting selection neglect: Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 140-157.
    51. Gruener, Sven, 2021. "Misinformation: determinants of gullibility," SocArXiv r3fx7, Center for Open Science.
    52. Marina Agranov & Pietro Ortoleva, 2021. "Ranges of Randomization," Working Papers 2021-72, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    53. Mario F. Carillo, 2022. "Fascistville: Mussolini’s new towns and the persistence of neo-fascism," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 527-567, December.
    54. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2281-2328, November.
    55. Avdeenko, Alexandra & Bohne, Albrecht & Frölich, Markus, 2019. "Linking savings behavior, confidence and individual feedback: A field experiment in Ethiopia," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-051, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    56. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2235R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2022.
    57. Nunnari, Salvatore & Zapal, Jan, 2017. "A Model of Focusing in Political Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 12407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Pierpaolo Benigno & Anastasios G. Karantounias, 2017. "Overconfidence, Subjective Perception, and Pricing Behavior," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    59. Frick, Mira & , & Ishii, Yuhta, 2021. "Welfare Comparisons for Biased Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 16833, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    60. Le Yaouanq, Yves & Schwardmann, Peter, 2019. "Learning About One\'s Self," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 139, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    61. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Stability and Robustness in Misspecified Learning Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2235, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    62. Joseph Maderick & Steven Grubaugh & Gregg Levitt & Allen Deever, 2021. "Social Awareness and Ideology: Self-Assessment and Socio-Civic Knowledge Competence," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 22(1), pages 409-444, August.
    63. Olivier Gossner & Jakub Steiner, 2016. "Optimal Illusion of Control and Related Perception Biases," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 276, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    64. Youzong Xu, 2019. "Collective decision-making of voters with heterogeneous levels of rationality," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 267-287, January.
    65. Le Yaouanq, Yves, 2023. "A model of voting with motivated beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 394-408.
    66. Ortoleva, Pietro & Snowberg, Erik, 2015. "Are conservatives overconfident?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 333-344.
    67. Lockwood, Ben, 2017. "Confirmation Bias and Electoral Accountability," CEPR Discussion Papers 11772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    68. Spitzer, Sonja & Shaikh, Mujaheed, 2022. "Health misperception and healthcare utilisation among older Europeans," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    69. André de Palma & Gordon M. Myers & Yorgos Y. Papageorgiou, 2022. "PoolLines: Imperfect Public Choice," THEMA Working Papers 2022-25, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    70. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Klass, Michael, 2023. "The price of independence in a model with unknown dependence," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 51-58.
    71. Hunt Allcott & Levi Boxell & Jacob C. Conway & Matthew Gentzkow & Michael Thaler & David Y. Yang, 2020. "Polarization and Public Health: Partisan Differences in Social Distancing during the Coronavirus Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 26946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    72. Grewenig, Elisabeth & Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2020. "Do party positions affect the public's policy preferences? Experimental evidence on support for family policies," Munich Reprints in Economics 84746, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    73. Meyer, Jacob & Rentschler, Lucas, 2023. "Abstention and informedness in nonpartisan elections," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 381-410.
    74. Aytimur, R. Emre & Suen, Richard M. H., 2024. "Information Quality, Disagreement and Political Polarisation," MPRA Paper 121112, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    75. Antonio Abatemarco & Roberto Dell’Anno, 2020. "Fiscal illusion and progressive taxation with retrospective voting," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 246-273, April.
    76. Bräuninger, Thomas & Marinov, Nikolay, 2022. "Political elites and the “War on Truth’’," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    77. Pedro Gonzalez-Fernandez, 2024. "Belief Bias Identification," Papers 2404.09297, arXiv.org.
    78. Le Yaouanq, Yves, 2018. "A Model of Ideological Thinking," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 85, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    79. Gersbach, Hans & Muller, Philippe & Tejada, Oriol, 2019. "Costs of change and political polarization," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    80. De Moragas, Antoni-Italo, 2020. "When consensus hurts: experts' advice and electoral support," MPRA Paper 114800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    81. Carlos Viana de Carvalho & Eduardo Zilberman & Ruy Ribeiro, "undated". "Sentiment, Electoral Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Textos para discussão 655, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    82. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2018. "Dispersed Behavior and Perceptions in Assortative Societies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2128R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2022.
    83. Thomas Jensen & Andreas Madum, 2017. "Partisan optimism and political bargaining," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(2), pages 191-213, April.
    84. Samarth Vaidya & Rupayan Gupta, 2016. "Corruption Via Media Capture: The Effect of Competition," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(4), pages 1327-1348, April.
    85. Klümper, Andreas & Kräkel, Matthias, 2020. "Correlation neglect, incentives, and welfare," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    86. Jan Schnellenbach & Christian Schubert, 2019. "A note on the behavioral political economy of innovation policy," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1399-1414, November.
    87. Wei Li & Yunyan Zhang, 2022. "Managerial political orientation and insider trading," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 513-545, March.
    88. Christian Salas, 2022. "Representation increases participation: evidence from a reform in Chile," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 191(1), pages 21-30, April.
    89. Prummer, Anja, 2020. "Micro-targeting and polarization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    90. Sophie Beukelaer & Neza Vehar & Max Rollwage & Stephen M. Fleming & Manos Tsakiris, 2023. "Changing minds about climate change: a pervasive role for domain-general metacognition," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    91. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel Hauser, 2018. "Social Learning with Model Misspeciification: A Framework and a Robustness Result," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Jul 2018.
    92. Sardoschau, Sulin & Casanueva, Annalí, 2024. "Public Signal and Private Action: Right-wing Protest and Hate Crimes against Refugees," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302408, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    93. Alberto Alesina & Francesco Passarelli, 2019. "Loss Aversion in Politics," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(4), pages 936-947, October.
    94. Cafferata, Fernando G. & Domínguez, Patricio & Scartascini, Carlos, 2023. "Overconfidence and Gun Preferences: How Behavioral Biases Affect Your Safety," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12816, Inter-American Development Bank.
    95. Prato, Carlo & Wolton, Stephane, 2013. "Rational Ignorance, Elections, and Reform," MPRA Paper 68638, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Dec 2015.
    96. Golman, Russell, 2023. "Acceptable discourse: Social norms of beliefs and opinions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    97. Kemal Kıvanç Aköz & Alexei Zakharov, 2023. "Electoral turnout with divided opposition," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 60(3), pages 439-475, April.
    98. Stone, Daniel, 2018. "Just a big misunderstanding? Bias and Bayesian affective polarization," SocArXiv 58sru, Center for Open Science.
    99. Mariam Raheem & Ain ul Momina, 2021. "Do Underlying Risk Preferences explain Individuals’ Cognitive Ability? Evidence from a Sample of Pakistani Students," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 85-122, Jan-June.
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  14. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 18222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
    2. Kyle C. Meng, 2016. "Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy," NBER Working Papers 22255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Georg Graetz, 2019. "Labor Demand in the Past, Present, and Future," European Economy - Discussion Papers 114, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Franch, Fabio, 2021. "Political preferences nowcasting with factor analysis and internet data: The 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    5. Wright, Jonathan & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," CEPR Discussion Papers 9388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Ioan Constantin DIMA & Mãdãlina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2016. "Using the Autoregressive Model for the Economic Forecast during the Period 2014- 2018," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(1), pages 21-31, January.
    7. Olkhov, Victor, 2023. "Economic complexity limits accuracy of price probability predictions by gaussian distributions," MPRA Paper 118373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mueller-Frank, Manuel, 2014. "Does one Bayesian make a difference?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 423-452.
    9. Raphael Boleslavsky & David L Kelly & Curtis R Taylor, 2013. "Selloffs, Bailouts, and Feedback: Can Asset Markets Inform Policy," Working Papers 2013-11, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    10. Heraud, Florian & Page, Lionel, 2024. "Does the left-digit bias affect prices in financial markets?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 20-29.
    11. Alejandro Graziano & Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration," NBER Working Papers 25334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Sarbast Moslem & Tiziana Campisi & Agnieszka Szmelter-Jarosz & Szabolcs Duleba & Kh Md Nahiduzzaman & Giovanni Tesoriere, 2020. "Best–Worst Method for Modelling Mobility Choice after COVID-19: Evidence from Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-19, August.
    13. Polson Nicholas G. & Stern Hal S., 2015. "The implied volatility of a sports game," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 145-153, September.
    14. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578-578, May.
    15. Bo Cowgill & Eric Zitzewitz, 2015. "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1309-1341.
    16. Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Are Professional Macroeconomic Forecasters Able To Do Better Than Forecasting Trends?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 349-382, March.
    17. Alfredo Aloi & Borja Alonso & Juan Benavente & Rubén Cordera & Eneko Echániz & Felipe González & Claudio Ladisa & Raquel Lezama-Romanelli & Álvaro López-Parra & Vittorio Mazzei & Lucía Perrucci & Darí, 2020. "Effects of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Urban Mobility: Empirical Evidence from the City of Santander (Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-18, May.
    18. Linardi, Sera, 2017. "Accounting for noise in the microfoundations of information aggregation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 334-353.
    19. Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE & Prof. Vladimir MODRAK & Madalina Gabriela ANGHEL & Marius POPOVICI, 2016. "Portfolio Management and Predictability," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(1), pages 59-63, January.
    20. Thomas Ferguson & Paul Jorgensen & Jie Chen, 2016. "How Money Drives US Congressional Elections," Working Papers Series 48, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    21. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Predicting catastrophe risk: Evidence from catastrophe bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

  15. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2011. "How Prediction Markets can Save Event Studies," CESifo Working Paper Series 3434, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 6720, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen & Kieu-Trang Nguyen, 2013. "Out of Sight, Out of Mind: The Value of Political Connections in Social Networks," Working Papers hal-03460920, HAL.
    3. Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 145-207, January.
    4. Bielen, David A. & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2018. "Who did the ethanol tax credit benefit? An event analysis of subsidy incidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Gökçe Göktepe & Shanker Satyanath, 2013. "The economic value of military connections in Turkey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 531-552, June.
    6. Dragan Ilić & Janick Christian Mollet, 2022. "Voluntary corporate climate initiatives and regulatory threat," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 157-184, February.
    7. Borochin, Paul & Golec, Joseph, 2016. "Using options to measure the full value-effect of an event: Application to Obamacare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 169-193.
    8. Gabriel E Lade & C -Y Cynthia Lin Lawell & Aaron Smith, 2018. "Policy Shocks and Market-Based Regulations: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(3), pages 707-731.
    9. Andr� Betzer & Markus Doumet & Ulf Rinne, 2013. "How policy changes affect shareholder wealth: the case of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear disaster," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 799-803, May.
    10. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen, 2016. "Directors as Connectors: The Impact of the External Networks of Directors on Firms," Working Papers hal-03393196, HAL.
    11. Caprini, Giulia, 2023. "Does candidates’ media exposure affect vote shares? Evidence from Pope breaking news," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    12. Niklas Potrafke, 2017. "Government Ideology and Economic Policy-Making in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 6444, CESifo.
    13. Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2014. "The Impact of Political Majorities on Firm Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter?," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00990241, HAL.
    14. Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2012. "Impacts of Political Majorities on French Firms: Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections?," PSE Working Papers halshs-00671405, HAL.
    15. Goodell, John W. & McGee, Richard J. & McGroarty, Frank, 2020. "Election uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty and financial market uncertainty: A prediction market analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

  16. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers, 2010. "Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3029, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Bergemann, Dirk & Ottaviani, Marco, 2021. "Information Markets and Nonmarkets," CEPR Discussion Papers 16459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Alasdair Brown & Fuyu Yang, 2014. "The Role of Speculative Trade in Market Efficiency: Evidence from a Betting Exchange," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 068, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    3. Strijbis, Oliver & Arnesen, Sveinung, 2019. "Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 408-419.
    4. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 6720, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Dagaev, Dmitry & Stoyan, Egor, 2020. "Parimutuel betting on the eSports duels: Evidence of the reverse favourite-longshot bias," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Tai, Chung-Ching & Lin, Hung-Wen & Chie, Bin-Tzong & Tung, Chen-Yuan, 2019. "Predicting the failures of prediction markets: A procedure of decision making using classification models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 297-312.
    7. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2011. ""White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 31469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Alasdair Brown & Fuyu Yang, 2015. "Salience and the Disposition Effect: Evidence from the Introduction of `Cash-Outs' in Betting Markets," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 071, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    9. Choi, Darwin & Hui, Sam K., 2014. "The role of surprise: Understanding overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events using in-play soccer betting market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 614-629.
    10. Alex Gershkov & Benny Moldovanu & Philipp Strack & Mengxi Zhang, 2023. "Optimal Insurance: Dual Utility, Random Losses and Adverse Selection," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 242, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    11. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2017. "Prediction market prices under risk aversion and heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 105-114.
    12. Aloisio Araujo & Alain Chateauneuf & Juan Pablo Gama & Rodrigo Novinski, 2018. "General Equilibrium With Uncertainty Loving Preferences," Post-Print hal-03252360, HAL.
    13. Eraker, Bjørn & Ready, Mark, 2015. "Do investors overpay for stocks with lottery-like payoffs? An examination of the returns of OTC stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 486-504.
    14. Emel Filiz-Ozbay & Jonathan Guryan & Kyle Hyndman & Melissa Schettini Kearney & Erkut Y. Ozbay, 2013. "Do Lottery Payments Induce Savings Behavior: Evidence from the Lab," NBER Working Papers 19130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Niko Suhonen, 2011. "Market Efficiency in Finnish Harness Horse Racing," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 55-63, Spring.
    16. Frantisek Kopriva, 2015. "Constant Bet Size? Don't Bet on It! Testing Expected Utility Theory on Betfair Data," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp545, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    17. Goto, Shingo & Yamada, Toru, 2023. "What drives biased odds in sports betting markets: Bettors’ irrationality and the role of bookmakers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 252-270.
    18. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," Research Papers 1927, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    19. Jonathan Chapman & Erik Snowberg & Stephanie Wang & Colin Camerer, 2022. "Looming Large or Seeming Small? Attitudes Towards Losses in a Representative Sample," CESifo Working Paper Series 9820, CESifo.
    20. Ma, Tiejun & Tang, Leilei & McGroarty, Frank & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E. V, 2016. "Time is money: Costing the impact of duration misperception in market prices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(2), pages 397-410.
    21. Can Xu & Andreas Steiner & Jakob de Haan, 2023. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Encourage Gambling? Evidence from the Chinese Welfare Lottery Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 10241, CESifo.
    22. Isabel Abinzano & Luis Muga & Rafael Santamaria, 2017. "Behavioral Biases Never Walk Alone," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(2), pages 99-125, February.
    23. Nicholas C. Barberis, 2012. "Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 18621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Antonio, Filippin & Marco, Mantovani, 2019. "Risk Aversion and Information Aggregation in Asset Markets," Working Papers 404, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2019.
    25. Romain Gauriot Author e-mail: romain.gauriot@nyu.edu & Lionel Page Author e-mail: lionel.page@uts.edu.au, 2021. "How Market Prices React to Information: Evidence from Binary Options Markets," Working Papers 20200058, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Oct 2021.
    26. J Reade & C Singleton & L Vaughan Williams, 2020. "Betting Markets for English Premier League Results and Scorelines: Evaluating a Simple Forecasting Model," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 25(1), pages 87-106, March.
    27. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin, 2010. "Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?," IZA Discussion Papers 4884, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    28. Bougherara, Douadia & Friesen, Lana & Nauges, Céline, 2020. "Risk Taking with Left- and Right-Skewed Lotteries," TSE Working Papers 20-1085, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    29. David Winkelmann & Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2024. "Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 54-97, January.
    30. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2015. "Price Reaction to Information with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Wealth Effects: Underreaction, Momentum, and Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 1-34, January.
    31. Rebecca B. Morton & Marco Piovesan & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2012. "The Dark Side of the Vote - Biased Voters, Social Information, and Information Aggregation Through Majority Voting," Discussion Papers 12-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    32. Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "What Causes the Favorite-Longshot Bias? Further Evidence from Tennis," MPRA Paper 47905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & J. James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2016. "Using Social Media to Identify Market Inefficiencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 293, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    34. Carl Singleton & Alex Bryson & Peter Dolton & J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer, 2021. "What Can We Learn About Economics from Sport during Covid-19?," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2021-01, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    35. Barge-Gil, Andrés & García-Hiernaux, Alfredo, 2019. "Staking plans in sports betting under unknown true probabilities of the event," MPRA Paper 92196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Ou, Kai & Pan, Xiaofei, 2021. "The effect of task choice and task assignment on the gender earnings gap: An experimental study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    37. Restocchi, Valerio & McGroarty, Frank & Gerding, Enrico & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2018. "It takes all sorts: A heterogeneous agent explanation for prediction market mispricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 556-569.
    38. Ziemba, William, 2020. "Parimutuel betting markets: racetracks and lotteries revisited," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118873, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    39. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-29, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    40. Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt & Johannes Kasinger & Dmitrij Schneider, 2024. "Skewness Preferences: Evidence from Online Poker," CESifo Working Paper Series 10977, CESifo.
    41. Costa Sperb, L.F. & Sung, M.-C. & Ma, T. & Johnson, J.E.V., 2022. "Turning the heat on financial decisions: Examining the role temperature plays in the incidence of bias in a time-limited financial market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(3), pages 1142-1157.
    42. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2015. "A study of a market anomaly: “White Men Can’t Jump”, but would you bet on it?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 13-25.
    43. Martin Kukuk & Stefan Winter, 2008. "An Alternative Explanation of the Favorite-Longshot Bias," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(2), pages 79-96, September.
    44. Niko Suhonen & Jani Saastamoinen, 2018. "How Do Prior Gains and Losses Affect Subsequent Risk Taking? New Evidence from Individual-Level Horse Race Bets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 2797-2808, June.
    45. Feess, Eberhard & Müller, Helge & Schumacher, Christoph, 2016. "Estimating risk preferences of bettors with different bet sizes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1102-1112.
    46. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & Kyle Hampton & Erik O. Kimbrough, 2023. "When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3697-3729, June.
    47. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2015. "The National Football League season wins total betting market: The impact of heuristics on behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(1), pages 38-54, July.
    48. Philip W. S. Newall & Dominic Cortis, 2021. "Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
    49. Franke, Maximilian, 2020. "Do market participants misprice lottery-type assets? Evidence from the European soccer betting market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-18.
    50. Kajii, Atsushi & Watanabe, Takahiro, 2017. "Favorite–longshot bias in pari-mutuel betting: An evolutionary explanation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 56-69.
    51. Leighton Vaughan Williams & Ming‐Chien Sung & Peter A. F. Fraser‐Mackenzie & John Peirson & Johnnie E. V. Johnson, 2018. "Towards an Understanding of the Origins of the Favourite–Longshot Bias: Evidence from Online Poker Markets, a Real‐money Natural Laboratory," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(338), pages 360-382, April.
    52. Alan Gerber & Mitchell Hoffman & John Morgan & Collin Raymond, 2020. "One in a Million: Field Experiments on Perceived Closeness of the Election and Voter Turnout," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 287-325, July.
    53. Ariane Charpin, 2018. "Tests des modèles de décision en situation de risque. Le cas des parieurs hippiques en France," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 69(5), pages 779-803.
    54. Stefanie Huber & Tobias Schmidt, 2022. "Nevertheless, they persist: Cross-Country Differences in Homeownership Behavior," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-009/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    55. Wunderlich, Fabian & Memmert, Daniel, 2020. "Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 713-722.
    56. Grove, Wayne A. & Jetter, Michael & Papps, Kerry L., 2018. "Career Lotto: Labor Supply in Winner-Take-All Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 12012, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    57. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
    58. Jason P. Berkowitz & Craig A. Depken II & John M. Gandar, 2018. "The Conversion of Money Lines Into Win Probabilities," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(7), pages 990-1015, October.
    59. Mills, Brian M. & Salaga, Steven, 2018. "A natural experiment for efficient markets: Information quality and influential agents," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 23-39.
    60. Simon Kloker & Tim Straub & Christof Weinhardt, 2019. "Moderators for Partition Dependence in Prediction Markets," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 723-756, August.
    61. Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Bernard Salanie & Francois Salanie & Amit Gandhi, 2019. "From aggregate betting data to individual risk preferences," Post-Print hal-02121859, HAL.
    62. Schneider, C.A.R. & Spalt, Oliver, 2016. "Conglomerate investment, skewness, and the CEO long shot bias," Other publications TiSEM 5d9321e2-35ea-40f9-9eae-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    63. Ivo Blohm & Christoph Riedl & Johann Fuller & Orhan Koroglu & Jan Marco Leimeister & Helmut Krcmar, 2012. "The Effects of Prediction Market Design and Price Elasticity on Trading Performance of Users: An Experimental Analysis," Papers 1204.3457, arXiv.org.
    64. Dennery, Charles & Direr, Alexis, 2014. "Optimal lottery," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 15-23.
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    66. Luís Santos-Pinto & Adrian Bruhin & José Mata & Thomas Åstebro, 2015. "Detecting heterogeneous risk attitudes with mixed gambles," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 79(4), pages 573-600, December.
    67. Hassett, Kevin & Zhong, Weifeng, 2017. "On the Observational Implications of Knightian Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 82998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    68. Christian Deutscher & Marius Ötting & Sandra Schneemann & Hendrik Scholten, 2019. "The Demand for English Premier League Soccer Betting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(4), pages 556-579, May.
    69. Krčál, Ondřej & Kvasnička, Michal & Staněk, Rostislav, 2016. "External validity of prospect theory: The evidence from soccer betting," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 121-127.
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    72. Schmidt, Martin B. & Stuck, Lee M., 2009. "Point shaving: Corruption in NCAA college football?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 90-92, October.
    73. Antonio Filippin & Marco Mantovani, 2023. "Risk aversion and information aggregation in binary‐asset markets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 753-798, May.
    74. Little, Andrew T., 2022. "Information Theory and Biased Beliefs," OSF Preprints vfqy2, Center for Open Science.
    75. Charles Moul & Joseph Keller, 2014. "Time to Unbridle U.S. Thoroughbred Racetracks? Lessons from Australian Bookies," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(3), pages 211-239, May.
    76. Restocchi, Valerio & McGroarty, Frank & Gerding, Enrico, 2019. "The temporal evolution of mispricing in prediction markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 303-307.
    77. Jakub Steiner & Colin Stewart, 2014. "Perceiving Prospects Properly," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 245, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    78. Ulrik W. Nash, 2018. "Fair Odds for Noisy Probabilities," Papers 1811.12516, arXiv.org.
    79. Nicholas C. Barberis, 2013. "Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 173-196, Winter.
    80. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2019. "Evaluating Strange Forecasts: The Curious Case of Football Match Scorelines," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-18, Department of Economics, University of Reading, revised 01 Aug 2020.
    81. Jinook Jeong & Jee Young Kim & Yoon Jae Ro, 2017. "On the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Market: A New Test for the Favorite-Longshot Bias," Working papers 2017rwp-106, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
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    86. Marco Mantovani & Antonio Filippin, 2024. "When do prediction markets return average beliefs? Experimental evidence," Working Papers 532, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    87. Ramirez, Philip & Reade, J. James & Singleton, Carl, 2023. "Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1413-1423.
    88. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.
    89. Ruud H. Koning & Renske Zijm, 2023. "Betting market efficiency and prediction in binary choice models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 135-148, June.
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    104. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2012. "Racial biases and market outcomes: "White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 36069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    1. Bergemann, Dirk & Ottaviani, Marco, 2021. "Information Markets and Nonmarkets," CEPR Discussion Papers 16459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Sylvain Chassang & Gerard Padro i Miquel, 2014. "Corruption, Intimidation, and Whistleblowing: A Theory of Inference from Unverifiable Reports," Working Papers 062-2014, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    3. Maffioli,Alessandro & Mckenzie,David J. & Ubfal,Diego Javier, 2020. "Estimating the Demand for Business Training : Evidence from Jamaica," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9415, The World Bank.
    4. Sylvain Chassang & Erik Snowberg & Ben Seymour & Cayley Bowles, 2015. "Accounting for Behavior in Treatment Effects: New Applications for Blind Trials," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, June.
    5. Paulina Oliva & B. Kelsey Jack & Samuel Bell & Elizabeth Mettetal & Christopher Severen, 2020. "Technology Adoption under Uncertainty: Take-Up and Subsequent Investment in Zambia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 617-632, July.
    6. Chemla, Gilles & Hennessy, Christopher A., 2020. "Rational expectations and the Paradox of policy-relevant natural experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 368-381.
    7. Edward Asiedu & Dean Karlan & Monica P. Lambon-Quayefio & Christopher R. Udry, 2021. "A Call for Structured Ethics Appendices in Social Science Papers," NBER Working Papers 28393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Eliaz, Kfir & Spiegler, Ran, 2022. "On incentive-compatible estimators," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 204-220.
    9. Cristina Corduneanu-Huci & Michael T. Dorsch & Paul Maarek, 2017. "Learning to constrain: Political competition and randomized controlled trials in development," THEMA Working Papers 2017-24, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    10. Berry, James & Fischer, Greg & Guiteras, Raymond, 2015. "Eliciting and Utilizing Willingness to Pay: Evidence from Field Trials in Northern Ghana," CEPR Discussion Papers 10703, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Abhijit Banerjee & Sylvain Chassang & Erik Snowberg, 2016. "Decision Theoretic Approaches to Experiment Design and External Validity," NBER Working Papers 22167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Duflo, Esther C. & Hanna, Rema N. & Greenstone, Michael, 2012. "Up in Smoke: The Influence of Household Behavior on the Long-Run Impact of Improved Cooking Stoves," Scholarly Articles 8694934, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    13. Amanda E. Kowalski, 2018. "Extrapolation using Selection and Moral Hazard Heterogeneity from within the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2135, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Peters, Jörg & Langbein, Jörg & Roberts, Gareth, 2017. "Generalization in the Tropics: Development policy, randomized controlled trials, and external validity," Ruhr Economic Papers 716, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Aleksey Tetenov, 2016. "An economic theory of statistical testing," CeMMAP working papers CWP50/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Peters, Jörg & Langbein, Jörg & Roberts, Gareth, 2015. "Policy evaluation, randomized controlled trials, and external validity: A systematic review," Ruhr Economic Papers 589, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Maximilian Kasy & Jann Spiess, 2022. "Rationalizing Pre-Analysis Plans:Statistical Decisions Subject to Implementability," Economics Series Working Papers 975, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Bryan, Gharad & Karlan, Dean & Zinman, Jonathan, 2012. "You Can Pick Your Friends, but You Need to Watch Them: Loan Screening and Enforcement in a Referrals Field Experiment," Working Papers 99, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    19. Jonathan de Quidt & Johannes Haushofer & Christopher Roth, 2017. "Measuring and Bounding Experimenter Demand," NBER Working Papers 23470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Anup Malani & Tomas J. Philipson, 2011. "Can Medical Progress be Sustained? Implications of the Link Between Development and Output Markets," NBER Working Papers 17011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Abhijit Banerjee & Rukmini Banerji & James Berry & Esther Duflo & Harini Kannan & Shobhini Mukerji & Marc Shotland & Michael Walton, 2017. "From Proof of Concept to Scalable Policies: Challenges and Solutions, with an Application," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 73-102, Fall.
    22. Amanda E. Kowalski, 2016. "Doing More When You're Running LATE: Applying Marginal Treatment Effect Methods to Examine Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Experiments," NBER Working Papers 22363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Gunnsteinsson, Snaebjorn, 2020. "Experimental identification of asymmetric information: Evidence on crop insurance in the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    24. Kasy, Maximilian & Spiess, Jann, 2024. "Optimal Pre-analysis Plans: Statistical Decisions Subject to Implementability," IZA Discussion Papers 17187, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    25. Günther Fink & Margaret McConnell & Bich Diep Nguyen, 2021. "Learn or react? An experimental study of preventive health decision making," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 206-237, March.
    26. Guiteras, Raymond P. & Jack, B. Kelsey, 2018. "Productivity in piece-rate labor markets: Evidence from rural Malawi," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 42-61.
    27. Yusuke Narita, 2018. "Experiment-as-Market: Incorporating Welfare into Randomized Controlled Trials," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2127r, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 2019.
    28. Eszter Czibor & David Jimenez-Gomez & John A. List, 2019. "The Dozen Things Experimental Economists Should Do (More of)," NBER Working Papers 25451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Eric Bettinger & Nina Cunha & Guilherme Lichand & Ricardo Madeira, 2020. "Are the effects of informational interventions driven by salience?," ECON - Working Papers 350, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised May 2021.
    30. Gani Aldashev & Georg Kirchsteiger & Alexander Sebald, 2017. "Assignment Procedure Biases in Randomised Policy Experiments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(602), pages 873-895, June.
    31. Aleksey Tetenov, 2016. "An economic theory of statistical testing," CeMMAP working papers 50/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    32. Emla Fitzsimons & Bansi Malde & Alice Mesnard & Marcos Vera-Hernandez, 2012. "Household responses to information on child nutrition: experimental evidence from Malawi," IFS Working Papers W12/07, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    33. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2018. "The Model Selection Curse," Papers 1810.02888, arXiv.org.
    34. Amanda E. Kowalski, 2016. "Doing More When You're Running LATE: Applying Marginal Treatment Effect Methods to Examine Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Experiments for the Young and Privately Insured"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2045, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    35. Ottaviani, Marco & Di Tillio, Alfredo & Sørensen, Peter Norman, 2017. "Strategic Sample Selection," CEPR Discussion Papers 12202, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. Eva Vivalt, 2015. "Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Impact Evaluation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 467-470, May.
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    39. de Quidt, Jonathan & Burchardi, Konrad & Gulesci, Selim & Lerva, Benedetta & Tripodi, Stefano, 2021. "Testing Willingness to Pay Elicitation Mechanisms in the Field: Evidence from Uganda," CEPR Discussion Papers 15809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    45. Yusuke Narita, 2018. "Toward an Ethical Experiment," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2127, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    46. Ernesto Dal Bó & Frederico Finan & Nicholas Y. Li & Laura Schechter, 2021. "Information Technology and Government Decentralization: Experimental Evidence From Paraguay," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 677-701, March.
    47. Juan Ortner & Sylvain Chassang, 2014. "Making Collusion Hard: Asymmetric Information as a Counter-Corruption Measure," Working Papers 064-2014, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    48. Raymond P. Guiteras & B. Kelsey Jack, 2014. "Incentives, Selection and Productivity in Labor Markets: Evidence from Rural Malawi," NBER Working Papers 19825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    49. Patil, Sanket & Salant, Yuval, 2024. "Optimal sample sizes and statistical decision rules," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 19(2), May.
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    53. Shukla, Pallavi & Pullabhotla, Hemant K. & Baylis, Kathy, 2023. "The economics of reducing food losses: Experimental evidence from improved storage technology in India," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

  18. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric & Snowberg, Erik, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 5591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    1. Stefano DellaVigna & Devin Pope, 2018. "Predicting Experimental Results: Who Knows What?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(6), pages 2410-2456.
    2. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 6720, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Draca, Mirko & Garred, Jason & Stickland, Leanne & Warrinnier, Nele, 2018. "On Target? The Incidence of Sanctions Across Listed Firms in Iran," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 372, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    4. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
    5. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen & Kieu-Trang Nguyen, 2013. "Out of Sight, Out of Mind: The Value of Political Connections in Social Networks," Working Papers hal-03460920, HAL.
    6. Hyeongwoo Kim & Madeline Kim, 2021. "U.S. Presidential Election Polls and the Economic Prospects of China and Mexico," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2021-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    7. Sojli, Elvira & Tham, Wing Wah, 2015. "Divided governments and futures prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 622-633.
    8. Kyle C. Meng, 2016. "Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy," NBER Working Papers 22255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hanke, Michael & Stöckl, Sebastian & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2020. "Political event portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    10. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    11. Gikas Hardouvelis & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Papers 0003, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
    12. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    13. Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 145-207, January.
    14. Arindrajit Dube & Ethan Kaplan & Suresh Naidu, 2011. "Coups, Corporations, and Classified Information," NBER Working Papers 16952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," Research Papers 1927, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    16. Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of political risk shocks," Bank of England working papers 841, Bank of England.
    17. Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 12053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hamish Greenop‐Roberts, 2022. "Forecasting Federal Elections: New Data From 2010–2019 and a Discussion of Alternative and Emerging Methods," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 25-39, March.
    19. François Facchini & Mickael Melki, 2014. "Political Ideology And Economic Growth: Evidence From The French Democracy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(4), pages 1408-1426, October.
    20. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
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    22. Katerina Chadimova & Jana Cahlikova & Lubomir Cingl, 2019. "Foretelling What Makes People Pay: Predicting the Results of Field Experiments on TV Fee Enforcement," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2019-15_1, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    23. Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 672, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    24. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5562, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Augusto Carvalho & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2016. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Discussion Papers 1702, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    26. John G Powell & Meifen Qian & Jing Shi & Qiaoqiao Zhu, 2015. "Should stock market return forecasts be conditioned on politics?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(4), pages 672-700, November.
    27. Dorine Boumans & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2022. "Political Leaders and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence from a Global Survey Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 9974, CESifo.
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    29. François-Xavier Delaloye & Michel Habib & Alexandre Ziegler, 2012. "Swiss banking secrecy: the stock market evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 143-176, March.
    30. Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2011. "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 699-706, July.
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    32. Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2012. "Impacts of Political Majorities on French Firms: Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections?," Working Papers halshs-00671405, HAL.
    33. Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg, 2015. "Overconfidence in Political Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 504-535, February.
    34. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "How Uncertain Are Economic Policies? Evidence from a survey on Japanese firms," Policy Discussion Papers 16008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    35. Eichler, Stefan & Plaga, Timo, 2020. "The economic record of the government and sovereign bond and stock returns around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    36. Alvarez-Ramirez, J. & Rodriguez, E. & Espinosa-Paredes, G., 2012. "A partisan effect in the efficiency of the US stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4923-4932.
    37. Constantine Yannelis & Scott Baker, 2015. "Income Changes and Consumption: Evidence from the 2013 Federal Government Shutdown," 2015 Meeting Papers 372, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    39. Mattozzi, Andrea & Snowberg, Erik, 2018. "The right type of legislator: A theory of taxation and representation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 54-65.
    40. Masami Imai & Richard S. Grossman, 2014. "Taking the Lord's Name in Vain: The Impact of Connected Directors on 19th century British Banks," Working Papers e086, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    41. Marx, Benjamin & Pons, Vincent & Rollet, Vincent, 2022. "Electoral Turnovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 17047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Joseph T. Ornstein & Jude C. Hays & Robert J. Franzese, 2022. "The interest premium for left government: Regression‐discontinuity estimates," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 429-443, July.
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    44. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Party Influence in Congress and the Economy," NBER Working Papers 12751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Daniele Girardi, 2018. "Political shocks and financial markets : regression-discontinuity evidence from national elections," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2018-08, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    46. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2023. "The effect of populism on high-skilled migration: Evidence from inventors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
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    89. Imai, Masami & Shelton, Cameron A., 2011. "Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 837-849.
    90. Dodge Cahan & Niklas Potrafke, 2021. "The Democrat-Republican presidential growth gap and the partisan balance of the state governments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(3), pages 577-601, December.
    91. Mihaela Simionescu & Dalia Streimikiene & Wadim Strielkowski, 2020. "What Does Google Trends Tell Us about the Impact of Brexit on the Unemployment Rate in the UK?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-10, January.
    92. Lehrer, Nimrod David, 2018. "The value of political connections in a multiparty parliamentary democracy: Evidence from the 2015 elections in Israel," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 13-58.
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  19. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Party Influence in Congress and the Economy," NBER Working Papers 12751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlsson, Magnus & Dahl, Gordon B. & Rooth, Dan-Olof, 2016. "Do Politicians Change Public Attitudes?," IZA Discussion Papers 10349, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen & Kieu-Trang Nguyen, 2013. "Out of Sight, Out of Mind: The Value of Political Connections in Social Networks," Working Papers hal-03460920, HAL.
    3. Li, Wanli & Su, Yueying & Wang, Kaixiu, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect cross-border M&A: Evidence from Chinese firms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 145-207, January.
    5. Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg, 2015. "Overconfidence in Political Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 504-535, February.
    6. Raphaël Godefroy, 2010. "The birth of the congressional clinic," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564921, HAL.
    7. Mattozzi, Andrea & Snowberg, Erik, 2018. "The right type of legislator: A theory of taxation and representation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 54-65.
    8. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric & Snowberg, Erik, 2011. "How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Yaser Abolghasemi & Stanko Dimitrov, 2021. "Determining the causality between U.S. presidential prediction markets and global financial markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4534-4556, July.
    10. Carlsson, Magnus & Dahl, Gordon B. & Rooth, Dan-Olof, 2018. "Backlash in Attitudes after the Election of Extreme Political Parties," IZA Discussion Papers 11759, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Niklas Potrafke, 2017. "Government Ideology and Economic Policy-Making in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 6444, CESifo.
    12. Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2014. "The Impact of Political Majorities on Firm Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter?," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00990241, HAL.
    13. Imai, Masami & Shelton, Cameron A., 2011. "Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 837-849.
    14. Dodge Cahan & Niklas Potrafke, 2021. "The Democrat-Republican presidential growth gap and the partisan balance of the state governments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(3), pages 577-601, December.
    15. Lehrer, Nimrod David, 2018. "The value of political connections in a multiparty parliamentary democracy: Evidence from the 2015 elections in Israel," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 13-58.
    16. Montone, Maurizio, 2022. "Does the U.S. president affect the stock market?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    17. Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2012. "Impacts of Political Majorities on French Firms: Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections?," PSE Working Papers halshs-00671405, HAL.
    18. Labonne, Julien, 2016. "Local political business cycles: Evidence from Philippine municipalities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 56-62.
    19. Carlsson, Magnus & Dahl, Gordon B. & Rooth, Dan-Olof, 2021. "Backlash in policy attitudes after the election of an extreme political party," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    20. Rothschild, David, 2015. "Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 952-964.
    21. Stephen Weymouth & J. Lawrence Broz, 2013. "Government Partisanship and Property Rights: Cross-Country Firm-Level Evidence," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 229-256, July.
    22. Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2010. "Elections and Political Risk: New Evidence from Political Prediction Markets in Taiwan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2010-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.

Articles

  1. Gerard Padró i Miquel & Erik Snowberg, 2012. "The lesser evil: Executive accountability with partisan supporters," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 24(1), pages 19-45, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Nobuhiro Mizuno & Ryosuke Okazawa, 2022. "Why do voters elect less qualified candidates?," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 34(3), pages 443-477, July.
    2. Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan, 2012. "Party cues in elections under multilevel governance: Theory and evidence from US states," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship & Project "The Future of Fiscal Federalism" SP II 2012-107, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    3. Mattozzi, Andrea & Snowberg, Erik, 2018. "The right type of legislator: A theory of taxation and representation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 54-65.
    4. Anderson, Siwan & Francois, Patrick, 2023. "Reservations and the politics of fear," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).

  2. Brendan Daley & Erik Snowberg, 2011. "Even if it is not Bribery: The Case for Campaign Finance Reform," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 324-349.

    Cited by:

    1. Schnakenberg, Keith & Turner, Ian R, 2023. "Formal Theories of Special Interest Influence," SocArXiv 47e26, Center for Open Science.
    2. Tomás Rodríguez Barraquer & Xu Tan, 2023. "A model of competitive signaling with rich message spaces," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 27(1), pages 1-43, February.
    3. Gerard Padró i Miquel & Erik Snowberg, 2012. "The lesser evil: Executive accountability with partisan supporters," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 24(1), pages 19-45, January.
    4. Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan & Landa, Dimitri, 2015. "Political accountability and sequential policymaking," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 95-108.

  3. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers, 2010. "Explaining the Favorite-Long Shot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(4), pages 723-746, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
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