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Electoral Turnovers

Author

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  • Benjamin Marx

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vincent Pons

    (Harvard University, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research)

  • Vincent Rollet

    (MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and parliamentary elections held since 1945. We document the prevalence of turnovers over time and we estimate their effects on economic performance, trade, human development, conflict, and democracy. Using a close-elections regression discontinuity design (RDD) across countries, we show that turnovers improve country performance. These effects are not driven by differences in the characteristics of challengers, or by the fact that challengers systematically increase the level of government intervention in the economy. Electing new leaders leads to more policy change, it improves governance, and it reduces perceived corruption, consistent with the expectation that recently elected leaders exert more effort due to stronger reputation concerns.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Marx & Vincent Pons & Vincent Rollet, 2022. "Electoral Turnovers," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03812816, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03812816
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03812816v2
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    2. Peveri, Julieta, 2022. "The wise, the politician, and the strongman: Types of national leaders and quality of governance," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 849-895.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; Turnovers; Democracy; Institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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