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Overprecision increases subsequent surprise

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  • Don A Moore
  • Derek Schatz

Abstract

Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment. Participants reported ex-ante confidence in their beliefs, and after receiving accuracy feedback, they then reported ex-post surprise. Results show that more ex-ante confidence produces less ex-post surprise for correct answers; this relationship reverses for incorrect answers. However, this sensible pattern only holds for some measures of confidence; it fails for confidence-interval measures. The results can help explain the robust durability of overprecision in judgment.

Suggested Citation

  • Don A Moore & Derek Schatz, 2020. "Overprecision increases subsequent surprise," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-12, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0227084
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Hackbarth, Dirk, 2008. "Managerial Traits and Capital Structure Decisions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(4), pages 843-881, December.
    7. Don A. Moore & Samuel A. Swift & Angela Minster & Barbara Mellers & Lyle Ungar & Philip Tetlock & Heather H. J. Yang & Elizabeth R. Tenney, 2017. "Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3552-3565, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco J. Alvarado-Rodríguez & Karla P. Ibarra-González & Cristina Eccius-Wellmann & Hugo Vélez-Pérez & Rebeca Romo-Vázquez, 2022. "Electrophysiological Brain Response to Error in Solving Mathematical Tasks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(18), pages 1-13, September.

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