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Do horses like vodka and sponging? - On market manipulation and the favourite-longshot bias

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  • Stefan Winter
  • Martin Kukuk

Abstract

One of the most striking empirical patterns of horse race betting markets is the favourite-longshot bias: Bets on favourites have dramatically higher expected returns than bets on longshots. The literature offers a couple of different, though not mutually exclusive, explanations based on risk preferences and probability perceptions. This article adds a new possible explanation: The favourite-longshot bias may be the rational answer of an honest audience to a simple, but highly lucrative cheating opportunity of insiders. We provide anecdotal evidence that the type of cheating we model here really takes place. What is more, by employing a large scale German data set we are able to demonstrate that the pattern of the favourite-longshot bias changes as the opportunity of cheating vanishes. The changes we observe are in accord with the cheating model we suggest.

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  • Stefan Winter & Martin Kukuk, 2008. "Do horses like vodka and sponging? - On market manipulation and the favourite-longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 75-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:1:p:75-87
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701731538
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    Cited by:

    1. Johnnie Johnson & Alistair Bruce & Jiejun Yu, 2010. "The ordinal efficiency of betting markets: an exploded logit approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(29), pages 3703-3709.
    2. Martin Kukuk & Stefan Winter, 2008. "An Alternative Explanation of the Favorite-Longshot Bias," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(2), pages 79-96, September.
    3. Parimal Kanti Bag & Bibhas Saha, 2017. "Match‐Fixing in a Monopoly Betting Market," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 257-289, February.
    4. Parimal Kanti Bag & Bibhas Saha, 2010. "Betting in the Shadow of Match-Fixing," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 011, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    5. Bag, Parimal Kanti & Saha, Bibhas, 2011. "Match-fixing under competitive odds," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 318-344.
    6. Bibhas Saha, 2015. "An Economist’s Perspective on Match-fixing and Self-sabotage in Contests," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 4(2), pages 77-85, July.

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