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External Validity in a Stochastic World

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  • Mark Rosenzweig
  • Christopher Udry

Abstract

We examine the generalizability of internally valid estimates of causal effects in a fixed population over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. This temporal external validity is shown to depend upon the distribution of the aggregate shocks and the interaction between these shocks and the casual effects. We show that returns to investment in agriculture, small and medium enterprises and human capital differ significantly from year to year. We also show how returns to investments interact with specific aggregate shocks, and estimate the parameters of the distributions of these shocks. We show how to use these estimates to appropriately widen estimated confidence intervals to account for aggregate shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Rosenzweig & Christopher Udry, 2016. "External Validity in a Stochastic World," NBER Working Papers 22449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22449
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kate Ambler & Alan de Brauw & Susan Godlonton, 0. "Cash Transfers and Management Advice for Agriculture: Evidence from Senegal," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 597-617.
    3. Dustan, Andrew & Maldonado, Stanislao & Hernandez-Agramonte, Juan Manuel, 2018. "Motivating bureaucrats with non-monetary incentives when state capacity is weak: Evidence from large-scale field experiments in Peru," MPRA Paper 90952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:nbr:nberch:13946 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Troost, Christian & Huber, Robert & Bell, Andrew R. & van Delden, Hedwig & Filatova, Tatiana & Le, Quang Bao & Lippe, Melvin & Niamir, Leila & Polhill, J. Gareth & Sun, Zhanli & Berger, Thomas, 2023. "How to keep it adequate: A protocol for ensuring validity in agent-based simulation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 159, pages 1-21.
    6. Kevin Donovan & Wyatt Brooks, 2017. "Eliminating Uncertainty in Market Access: The Impact of New Bridges in Rural Nicaragua," 2017 Meeting Papers 1607, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Arthur Lewbel, 2019. "The Identification Zoo: Meanings of Identification in Econometrics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(4), pages 835-903, December.
    8. Gauri, Varun & Jamison, Julian C. & Mazar, Nina & Ozier, Owen, 2021. "Motivating bureaucrats through social recognition: External validity—A tale of two states," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 117-131.
    9. Gauri, Varun & Jamison, Julian C. & Mazar, Nina & Ozier, Owen, 2019. "Motivating Bureaucrats through Social Recognition: External Validity — A Tale of Two States," IZA Discussion Papers 12251, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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