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Populist Leaders and the Economy

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  • Funke, Manuel
  • Schularick, Moritz
  • Trebesch, Christoph

Abstract

Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25% of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies perform under populist leaders? We build a new long-run cross-country database to study the macroeconomic history of populism. We identify 51 populist presidents and prime ministers from 1900 to 2020 and show that the economic cost of populism is high. After 15 years, GDP per capita is 10% lower compared to a plausible non-populist counterfactual. Economic disintegration, decreasing macroeconomic stability, and the erosion of institutions typically go hand in hand with populist rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Funke, Manuel & Schularick, Moritz & Trebesch, Christoph, 2022. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15405
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Populism; Protectionism; Institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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