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Political Leaders and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence from a Global Survey Experiment

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  • Dorine Boumans
  • Klaus Gründler
  • Niklas Potrafke
  • Fabian Ruthardt

Abstract

Can one single political leader influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect of the US incumbent change on global macroeconomic expectations. We find large effects of Joe Biden’s election on growth expectations of international experts, working through more positive expectations about trade. The electoral outcome particularly affected the expectations of Western allies and increased global economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest important political spillover effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations.

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  • Dorine Boumans & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2022. "Political Leaders and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence from a Global Survey Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 9974, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9974
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    Cited by:

    1. Lena Dräger & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2022. "Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine," ifo Working Paper Series 371, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Frikk Nesje & Robert C. Schmidt & Moritz A. Drupp & Robert Christian Schmidt, 2024. "Designing Carbon Pricing Policies Across the Globe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11424, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    US presidential elections; politicians; economic expectations; economic experts; survey experiment; causal inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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