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How Uncertain Are Economic Policies? Evidence from a survey on Japanese firms

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  • MORIKAWA Masayuki

Abstract

This study, using data from an original survey covering both public and private firms in Japan, presents evidence on uncertainties over economic policies, their effects on managerial decisions, and firms' evaluations of the government's numerical targets related to economic policies. This study is an extension of Morikawa (2013), but the survey greatly expands its coverage including private firms and adds new questionnaires. The results indicate that Japanese firms perceive uncertainty over the future course of certain economic policies, such as the social security system, tax policy, fiscal expenditures, and international trade policy. Policy uncertainties have substantial effects on managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and hiring of regular employees. Medium- to long-term numerical targets related to the government's economic policies are generally perceived to be difficult to achieve.

Suggested Citation

  • MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "How Uncertain Are Economic Policies? Evidence from a survey on Japanese firms," Policy Discussion Papers 16008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:polidp:16008
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    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/pdp/16p008.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Kozo Ueda, 2017. "Secular Stagnation under the Fear of a Government Debt Disaster," CIGS Working Paper Series 17-012E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Takafumi Kawakubo & Charlotte Chunming Meng & Paul Mizen & Rebecca Riley & Tatsuro Senga & John Van Reenen, 2021. "Do Well Managed Firms Make Better Forecasts?," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2021-18, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    3. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 779-824, June.
    4. Anasuya Haldar & Narayan Sethi, 2022. "The Economic Effects Of Covid-19 Mitigation Policies On Unemployment And Economic Policy Uncertainty," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(Special I), pages 61-84, March.
    5. Arbatli Saxegaard, Elif C. & Davis, Steven J. & Ito, Arata & Miake, Naoko, 2022. "Policy uncertainty in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Yao, Can-Zhong & Sun, Bo-Yi, 2018. "The study on the tail dependence structure between the economic policy uncertainty and several financial markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 245-265.

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