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A model of voting with motivated beliefs

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  • Le Yaouanq, Yves

Abstract

This paper develops a theory in which heterogeneity in political preferences produces a partisan disagreement about objective facts. A political decision involving both idiosyncratic preferences and scientific knowledge is considered. Voters form motivated beliefs in order to improve their subjective anticipation of the future political outcome, which is determined by two-party competition à la Downs (1957). We provide conditions on preferences under which equilibrium beliefs are monotone along the political spectrum, as voters tend to deny the scientific arguments advocating the political orientations that run counter to their interests. Collective denial is the strongest in societies where contingent policy is the least likely to be implemented. Political competition does not imply policy convergence, as there exists an equilibrium in which each party targets a different group of voters as a function of their (endogenous) level of denial.

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  • Le Yaouanq, Yves, 2023. "A model of voting with motivated beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 394-408.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:213:y:2023:i:c:p:394-408
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.07.031
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    1. Flörchinger, Daniela & Perino, Grischa & Frondel, Manuel & Jarke-Neuert, Johannes, 2024. "The Impact of Information Provision on Revealed-Preference Support for Climate Policies," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302395, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Mechtenberg, Lydia & Perino, Grischa & Treich, Nicolas & Tyran, Jean-Robert & Wang, Stephanie W., 2024. "Self-signaling in voting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Kai Barron & Anna Becker & Steffen Huck, 2024. "Motivated Political Reasoning: On the Emergence of Belief-Value Constellations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 510, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    4. Philipp Denter, 2024. "Motivated Reasoning and the Political Economy of Climate Change Inaction," Papers 2410.20982, arXiv.org.

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