IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v120y2016i1p169-193.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using options to measure the full value-effect of an event: Application to Obamacare

Author

Listed:
  • Borochin, Paul
  • Golec, Joseph

Abstract

Many event studies only measure a fraction of an event's full value effect because they do not adjust for market anticipation of the event. We present a method based on stock and options prices to measure the full effect that accounts for market anticipation. We apply the method to the passage of Obamacare. Our method estimates the full value effect of Obamacare on the healthcare sector as $55 billion, compared to $16 billion when market anticipation is ignored. The method is applicable to most major events because it only requires that some affected firms have traded stock options.

Suggested Citation

  • Borochin, Paul & Golec, Joseph, 2016. "Using options to measure the full value-effect of an event: Application to Obamacare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 169-193.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:120:y:2016:i:1:p:169-193
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X16000131
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhagat, Sanjai & Dong, Ming & Hirshleifer, David & Noah, Robert, 2005. "Do tender offers create value? New methods and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 3-60, April.
    2. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. "Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
    3. Campbell, Cynthia J & Wasley, Charles E, 1996. "Measuring Abnormal Daily Trading Volume for Samples of NYSE/ASE and NASDAQ Securities Using Parametric and Nonparametric Test Statistics," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 309-326, May.
    4. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
    5. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    6. Pekka Hietala & Steven N. Kaplan & David T. Robinson, 2003. "What is the Price of Hubris? Using Takeover Battles to Infer Overpayments and Synergies," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(3), Fall.
    7. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2011. "How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies," IZA Discussion Papers 5640, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Prabhala, N R, 1997. "Conditional Methods in Event Studies and an Equilibrium Justification for Standard Event-Study Procedures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38.
    9. Acharya, Sankarshan, 1993. "Value of Latent Information: Alternative Event Study Methods," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 363-385, March.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    11. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2007. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 807-829.
    12. Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala, 1997. "Conditional Methods in Event-Studies and an Equilibrium Justification for Standard Event-Study Procedures," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm55, Yale School of Management.
    13. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Daouk, Hazem & Jorgenson, Brian & Kehr, Carl-Heinrich, 2000. "When an event is not an event: the curious case of an emerging market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 69-101, January.
    14. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2009. "Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 225-250, April.
    15. Kathryn Barraclough & David T. Robinson & Tom Smith & Robert E. Whaley, 2013. "Using Option Prices to Infer Overpayments and Synergies in M&A Transactions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 695-722.
    16. Malatesta, Paul H. & Thompson, Rex, 1985. "Partially anticipated events: A model of stock price reactions with an application to corporate acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 237-250, June.
    17. Matthew Stephens, 2000. "Dealing with label switching in mixture models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(4), pages 795-809.
    18. Baker, Malcolm & Pan, Xin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2012. "The effect of reference point prices on mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 49-71.
    19. Jie Cai & Moon H. Song & Ralph A. Walkling, 2011. "Anticipation, Acquisitions, and Bidder Returns: Industry Shocks and the Transfer of Information across Rivals," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(7), pages 2242-2285.
    20. Paul A. Borochin, 2014. "When Does a Merger Create Value? Using Option Prices to Elicit Market Beliefs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 445-466, June.
    21. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    22. Brennan, Michael J, 1990. "Latent Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 709-730, July.
    23. Chaplinsky, Susan & Hansen, Robert S, 1993. "Partial Anticipation, the Flow of Information and the Economic Impact of Corporate Debt Sales," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 709-732.
    24. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:795-829 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    26. Giovanni Barone-Adesi & Keith C. Brown & W. V. Harlow, "undated". "On the Use of Implied Stock Volatilities in the Prediction of Successful Corporate Takeovers," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 23-94, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Romain Gauriot Author e-mail: romain.gauriot@nyu.edu & Lionel Page Author e-mail: lionel.page@uts.edu.au, 2021. "How Market Prices React to Information: Evidence from Binary Options Markets," Working Papers 20200058, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Oct 2021.
    2. Huy Pham & Van Nguyen & Vikash Ramiah & Priyantha Mudalige & Imad Moosa, 2019. "The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Singapore Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Patel, Vinay & Putniņš, Tālis J. & Michayluk, David & Foley, Sean, 2020. "Price discovery in stock and options markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    4. Paul Borochin & John L. Glascock & Ran Lu-Andrews & Jie Yang, 2017. "Using Option Market Liquidity to Predict REIT Leverage Changes," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 135-154, August.
    5. Kostakis, Alexandros & Mu, Liangyi & Otsubo, Yoichi, 2023. "Detecting political event risk in the option market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Borochin, Paul & Yang, Jie, 2017. "Options, equity risks, and the value of capital structure adjustments," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 150-178.
    7. Huy Nguyen Anh Pham & Vikash Ramiah & Imad Moosa, 2020. "The effects of environmental regulation on the stock market: the French experience," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3279-3304, December.
    8. Ramiah, Vikash & Wallace, Damien & Veron, Jose Francisco & Reddy, Krishna & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The effects of recent terrorist attacks on risk and return in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 13-22.
    9. Han, Jianlei & Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Pan, Zheyao (Terry) & Smith, Tom, 2019. "The wealth effects of the announcement of the Australian carbon pricing scheme," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 399-409.
    10. Paul Borochin & Jie Yang, 2016. "Options, Equity Risks, and the Value of Capital Structure Adjustments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019, January-A.
    12. Xiaoqian Fu, 2018. "Analysis on the Effect of Chinese Medical Reform Policy on Medical Listed Companies -- Empirical Analysis on Listed Companies¡¯ Stocks Returns," Journal of Management and Strategy, Journal of Management and Strategy, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(2), pages 20-26, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huy Nguyen Anh Pham & Vikash Ramiah & Imad Moosa, 2020. "The effects of environmental regulation on the stock market: the French experience," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3279-3304, December.
    2. Huy Pham & Van Nguyen & Vikash Ramiah & Priyantha Mudalige & Imad Moosa, 2019. "The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Singapore Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Ramiah, Vikash & Wallace, Damien & Veron, Jose Francisco & Reddy, Krishna & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The effects of recent terrorist attacks on risk and return in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 13-22.
    4. Han, Jianlei & Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Pan, Zheyao (Terry) & Smith, Tom, 2019. "The wealth effects of the announcement of the Australian carbon pricing scheme," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 399-409.
    5. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    6. Guo, Lin & Mech, Timothy S., 2000. "Conditional event studies, anticipation, and asymmetric information: the case of seasoned equity issues and pre-issue information releases," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 113-141, August.
    7. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2015, January-A.
    8. Farida Akhtar, 2016. "The probability of a firm making a takeover bid: An empirical analysis of Australian firms," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(1), pages 27-54, February.
    9. Martynova, M., 2006. "The market for corporate control and corporate governance regulation in Europe," Other publications TiSEM 8651e281-4914-41f2-ac14-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Scruggs, John T., 2007. "Estimating the cross-sectional market response to an endogenous event: Naked vs. underwritten calls of convertible bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 220-247, March.
    11. Farida Akhtar, 2017. "Conditional returns to shareholders of bidding firms: an Australian study," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57, pages 3-43, April.
    12. Qiang Li & Hua Sun & Seow Ong, 2006. "REIT Splits and Dividend Changes: Tests of Signaling and Information Substitutability," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 127-150, September.
    13. Guo, Re-Jin & Kruse, Timothy A. & Nohel, Tom, 2008. "Undoing the powerful anti-takeover force of staggered boards," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 274-288, June.
    14. Paul A. Borochin, 2014. "When Does a Merger Create Value? Using Option Prices to Elicit Market Beliefs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 445-466, June.
    15. Sirio Aramonte & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2022. "Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions with Options and CDS," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 7018-7033, September.
    16. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019, January-A.
    17. Grinblatt, Mark & Wan, Kam-Ming, 2020. "State pricing, effectively complete markets, and corporate finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    18. Filson, Darren & Olfati, Saman, 2014. "The impacts of Gramm–Leach–Bliley bank diversification on value and risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 209-221.
    19. Shimbar, Ali, 2021. "Environment-related stranded assets: What does the market think about the impact of collective climate action on the value of fossil fuel stocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    20. Peter Christoffersen & Ruslan Goyenko & Kris Jacobs & Mehdi Karoui, 2018. "Illiquidity Premia in the Equity Options Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 811-851.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Event study; Options; Valuation; Healthcare reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:120:y:2016:i:1:p:169-193. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.