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From Aggregate Betting Data to Individual Risk Preferences

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  • Chiappori, Pierre-André
  • Gandhi, Amit
  • Salanié, Bernard
  • Salanié, François

Abstract

As a textbook model of contingent markets, horse races are an attractive environment to study the attitudes towards risk of bettors. We innovate on the literature by explicitly considering heterogeneous bettors and allowing for very general risk preferences, including non-expected utility. We build on a standard single-crossing condition on preferences to derive testable implications; and we show how parimutuel data allow us to uniquely identify the distribution of preferences among the population of bettors. We then estimate the model on data from US races. Within the expected utility class, the most usual specifications (CARA and CRRA) fit the data very badly. Our results show evidence for both heterogeneity and nonlinear probability weighting.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiappori, Pierre-André & Gandhi, Amit & Salanié, Bernard & Salanié, François, 2012. "From Aggregate Betting Data to Individual Risk Preferences," TSE Working Papers 13-453, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:27789
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    2. Keith Marzilli Ericson & Philipp Kircher & Johannes Spinnewijn & Amanda Starc, 2021. "Inferring Risk Perceptions and Preferences Using Choice from Insurance Menus: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 713-744.
    3. Aloisio Araujo & Alain Chateauneuf & Juan Pablo Gama & Rodrigo Novinski, 2018. "General Equilibrium With Uncertainty Loving Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1859-1871, September.
    4. Agostino Capponi & Zhaoyu Zhang, 2020. "Risk Preferences and Efficiency of Household Portfolios," Papers 2010.13928, arXiv.org.
    5. Apesteguia, Jose & Ballester, Miguel A., 2023. "Random utility models with ordered types and domains," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    6. Tyler Abbot, 2017. "General Equilibrium Under Convex Portfolio Constraints and Heterogeneous Risk Preferences," Papers 1706.05877, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    7. Levon Barseghyan & Francesca Molinari & Matthew Thirkettle, 2021. "Discrete Choice under Risk with Limited Consideration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(6), pages 1972-2006, June.
    8. Levon Barseghyan & Maura Coughlin & Francesca Molinari & Joshua C. Teitelbaum, 2021. "Heterogeneous Choice Sets and Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2015-2048, September.
    9. Bergemann, Dirk & Ottaviani, Marco, 2021. "Information Markets and Nonmarkets," CEPR Discussion Papers 16459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Alex Gershkov & Benny Moldovanu & Philipp Strack & Mengxi Zhang, 2023. "Optimal Insurance: Dual Utility, Random Losses and Adverse Selection," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 242, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    11. Andrew Grant & Oh Kang Kwon & Steve Satchell, 2024. "Properties of risk aversion estimated from portfolio weights," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(5), pages 427-444, September.
    12. Nikhil Agarwal & Paulo Somaini, 2018. "Demand Analysis Using Strategic Reports: An Application to a School Choice Mechanism," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 391-444, March.
    13. Isaiah Andrews & Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2020. "Transparency in Structural Research," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 711-722, October.
    14. Levon Barseghyan & Francesca Molinari, 2023. "Risk Preference Types, Limited Consideration, and Welfare," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 1011-1029, October.

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