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Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Michel Denuit & Arthur Charpentier & Julien Trufin, 2021. "Autocalibration and Tweedie-dominance for Insurance Pricing with Machine Learning," Papers 2103.03635, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
  2. Wang, Wenting & Guo, Yufeng & Yang, Dazhi & Zhang, Zili & Kleissl, Jan & van der Meer, Dennis & Yang, Guoming & Hong, Tao & Liu, Bai & Huang, Nantian & Mayer, Martin János, 2024. "Economics of physics-based solar forecasting in power system day-ahead scheduling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
  3. Michael K Andersson & Ted Aranki & André Reslow, 2017. "Adjusting for information content when comparing forecast performance," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 784-794, November.
  4. Bianchi, Daniele & Tamoni, Andrea, 2016. "The dynamics of expected returns: evidence from multi-scale time series modelling," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118992, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  5. Tae-Hwy Lee & Ekaterina Seregina & Yaojue Xu, 2023. "Elicitability and Encompassing for Volatility Forecasts by Bregman Functions," Working Papers 202311, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
  6. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Trapero, Juan R. & Barrow, Devon K., 2020. "Optimising forecasting models for inventory planning," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
  7. Chang, Chia-Lin & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & Maasoumi, Esfandiar & McAleer, Michael & Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio, 2019. "Choosing expected shortfall over VaR in Basel III using stochastic dominance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 95-113.
  8. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2018. "Forecaster’s utility and forecasts coherence," DEM Working Papers Series 145, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  9. Radu Tunaru, 2015. "Model Risk in Financial Markets:From Financial Engineering to Risk Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9524, September.
  10. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Benefits of physical and machine learning hybridization for photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  11. Haoyu Chen & Kun Fan, 2022. "Tail Value-at-Risk-Based Expectiles for Extreme Risks and Their Application in Distributionally Robust Portfolio Selections," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
  12. Timo Dimitriadis & Andrew J. Patton & Patrick W. Schmidt, 2019. "Testing Forecast Rationality for Measures of Central Tendency," Papers 1910.12545, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
  13. Timo Dimitriadis & Yannick Hoga, 2023. "Regressions under Adverse Conditions," Papers 2311.13327, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
  14. Mario V. Wuthrich & Johanna Ziegel, 2023. "Isotonic Recalibration under a Low Signal-to-Noise Ratio," Papers 2301.02692, arXiv.org.
  15. Véronique Maume-Deschamps & Didier Rullière & Khalil Said, 2015. "A risk management approach to capital allocation," Working Papers hal-01163180, HAL.
  16. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
  17. Annalisa Molino & Carlo Sala, 2021. "Forecasting value at risk and conditional value at risk using option market data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1190-1213, November.
  18. Ross Askanazi & Francis X. Diebold & Frank Schorfheide & Minchul Shin, 2018. "On the Comparison of Interval Forecasts," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 953-965, November.
  19. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Francq, Christian, 2023. "Two-stage weighted least squares estimator of the conditional mean of observation-driven time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  20. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven, 2017. "Grouped multivariate and functional time series forecasting:An application to annuity pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 166-179.
  21. Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2021. "CRPS Learning," Papers 2102.00968, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
  22. Ravazzolo Francesco & Vahey Shaun P., 2014. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 367-381, September.
  23. Fernanda Maria Müller & Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2024. "Comparison of Value at Risk (VaR) Multivariate Forecast Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(1), pages 75-110, January.
  24. Thiele, Stephen, 2019. "Detecting underestimates of risk in VaR models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 12-20.
  25. Zenker, Frank & Witte, Erich H., 2021. "Three aspects of an empirical effect: statistical, theoretical, and practical aspect," OSF Preprints zng8k, Center for Open Science.
  26. Malte Knüppel & Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2017. "Interest rate assumptions and predictive accuracy of central bank forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-215, August.
  27. Zhang, Gang & Yang, Dazhi & Galanis, George & Androulakis, Emmanouil, 2022. "Solar forecasting with hourly updated numerical weather prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  28. Ling, Chengxiu & Peng, Zuoxiang, 2016. "Tail asymptotics of generalized deflated risks with insurance applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 220-231.
  29. Krätschmer Volker & Schied Alexander & Zähle Henryk, 2015. "Quasi-Hadamard differentiability of general risk functionals and its application," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 32(1), pages 25-47, April.
  30. Ruben Loaiza‐Maya & Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier, 2021. "Focused Bayesian prediction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 517-543, August.
  31. Gensler, André & Sick, Bernhard & Vogt, Stephan, 2018. "A review of uncertainty representations and metaverification of uncertainty assessment techniques for renewable energies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 352-379.
  32. Taylor, James W., 2022. "Forecasting Value at Risk and expected shortfall using a model with a dynamic omega ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  33. Valeria Bignozzi & Andreas Tsanakas, 2016. "Parameter Uncertainty and Residual Estimation Risk," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(4), pages 949-978, December.
  34. Daouia, Abdelaati & Girard, Stéphane & Stupfler, Gilles, 2017. "Extreme M-quantiles as risk measures: From L1 to Lp optimization," TSE Working Papers 17-841, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  35. Fantazzini, Dean & Shangina, Tamara, 2019. "The importance of being informed: forecasting market risk measures for the Russian RTS index future using online data and implied volatility over two decades," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 5-31.
  36. Anthony Coache & Sebastian Jaimungal & 'Alvaro Cartea, 2022. "Conditionally Elicitable Dynamic Risk Measures for Deep Reinforcement Learning," Papers 2206.14666, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
  37. repec:bny:wpaper:0089 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Syuhada, Khreshna & Hakim, Arief & Suprijanto, Djoko, 2024. "Assessing systemic risk and connectedness among dirty and clean energy markets from the quantile and expectile perspectives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  39. Borgonovo, Emanuele & Hazen, Gordon B. & Jose, Victor Richmond R. & Plischke, Elmar, 2021. "Probabilistic sensitivity measures as information value," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(2), pages 595-610.
  40. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2014. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Papers 1401.4787, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
  41. James, Robert & Leung, Henry & Leung, Jessica Wai Yin & Prokhorov, Artem, 2023. "Forecasting tail risk measures for financial time series: An extreme value approach with covariates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 29-50.
  42. Edgars Jakobsons & Steven Vanduffel, 2015. "Dependence Uncertainty Bounds for the Expectile of a Portfolio," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-25, December.
  43. Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Correlogram, predictability error growth, and bounds of mean square error of solar irradiance forecasts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
  44. So Yeon Chun & Alexander Shapiro & Stan Uryasev, 2012. "Conditional Value-at-Risk and Average Value-at-Risk: Estimation and Asymptotics," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 739-756, August.
  45. Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2020. "Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting," Papers 2006.11265, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
  46. Matthias Fischer & Thorsten Moser & Marius Pfeuffer, 2018. "A Discussion on Recent Risk Measures with Application to Credit Risk: Calculating Risk Contributions and Identifying Risk Concentrations," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-28, December.
  47. Lee Tae-Hwy & Wang He & Xi Zhou & Zhang Ru, 2023. "Density Forecast of Financial Returns Using Decomposition and Maximum Entropy," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 57-83, January.
  48. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2019. "Assessing the uncertainty in central banks’ inflation outlooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1748-1769.
  49. Markovics, Dávid & Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Comparison of machine learning methods for photovoltaic power forecasting based on numerical weather prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  50. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber & Christophe Barrette & Maximilian Goebel, 2024. "Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation," Papers 2404.05209, arXiv.org.
  51. Hajo Holzmann & Matthias Eulert, 2014. "The role of the information set for forecasting - with applications to risk management," Papers 1404.7653, arXiv.org.
  52. Brenda Castillo-Brais & Ángel León & Juan Mora, 2022. "Estimating Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall: Do Polynomial Expansions Outperform Parametric Densities?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(22), pages 1-17, November.
  53. Xenxo Vidal-Llana & Carlos Salort Sánchez & Vincenzo Coia & Montserrat Guillen, 2022. ""Non-Crossing Dual Neural Network: Joint Value at Risk and Conditional Tail Expectation estimations with non-crossing conditions"," IREA Working Papers 202215, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2022.
  54. Athanasopoulos, George & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2023. "On the evaluation of hierarchical forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1502-1511.
  55. Cascos, Ignacio & Ochoa, Maicol, 2021. "Expectile depth: Theory and computation for bivariate datasets," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  56. Guillen, Montserrat & Bermúdez, Lluís & Pitarque, Albert, 2021. "Joint generalized quantile and conditional tail expectation regression for insurance risk analysis," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-8.
  57. Nguyen, Hoang & Javed, Farrukh, 2023. "Dynamic relationship between Stock and Bond returns: A GAS MIDAS copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 272-292.
  58. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2020. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Working Paper 2020/17, Norges Bank.
  59. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kim, Minjoo & Zhao, Yang, 2015. "US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-78, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  60. Fissler, Tobias & Pesenti, Silvana M., 2023. "Sensitivity measures based on scoring functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1408-1423.
  61. Qifa Xu & Lu Chen & Cuixia Jiang & Yezheng Liu, 2022. "Forecasting expected shortfall and value at risk with a joint elicitable mixed data sampling model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 407-421, April.
  62. Post, Thierry & Karabatı, Selçuk & Arvanitis, Stelios, 2019. "Robust optimization of forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 910-926.
  63. Luca Merlo & Lea Petrella & Valentina Raponi, 2021. "Forecasting VaR and ES using a joint quantile regression and implications in portfolio allocation," Papers 2106.06518, arXiv.org.
  64. Samuel Drapeau & Mekonnen Tadese, 2019. "Dual Representation of Expectile based Expected Shortfall and Its Properties," Papers 1911.03245, arXiv.org.
  65. Hyndman, Rob J., 2020. "A brief history of forecasting competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 7-14.
  66. Saissi Hassani, Samir & Dionne, Georges, 2023. "Using skewed exponential power mixture for VaR and CVaR forecasts to comply with market risk regulation," Working Papers 23-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
  67. repec:cte:wsrepe:28434 is not listed on IDEAS
  68. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2021. "Optimal bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity price auctions: trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs," Papers 2104.14204, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
  69. Zhengkun Li & Minh-Ngoc Tran & Chao Wang & Richard Gerlach & Junbin Gao, 2020. "A Bayesian Long Short-Term Memory Model for Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Joint Forecasting," Papers 2001.08374, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
  70. Hofert, Marius & Mächler, Martin, 2016. "Parallel and Other Simulations in R Made Easy: An End-to-End Study," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 69(i04).
  71. Weronika Ormaniec & Marcin Pitera & Sajad Safarveisi & Thorsten Schmidt, 2022. "Estimating value at risk: LSTM vs. GARCH," Papers 2207.10539, arXiv.org.
  72. Man, Rebeka & Tan, Kean Ming & Wang, Zian & Zhou, Wen-Xin, 2024. "Retire: Robust expectile regression in high dimensions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(2).
  73. Antonio Naimoli & Giuseppe Storti, 2021. "Forecasting Volatility and Tail Risk in Electricity Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-17, June.
  74. Kalli, Maria & Griffin, Jim E., 2014. "Time-varying sparsity in dynamic regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 779-793.
  75. Reh, Laura & Krüger, Fabian & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2020. "Predicting the global minimum variance portfolio," Working Paper Series in Economics 141, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
  76. Chen, An & Nguyen, Thai & Stadje, Mitja, 2018. "Optimal investment under VaR-Regulation and Minimum Insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 194-209.
  77. Rafael Frongillo & Ian A. Kash, 2015. "Elicitation Complexity of Statistical Properties," Papers 1506.07212, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
  78. Asimit, Alexandru V. & Bignozzi, Valeria & Cheung, Ka Chun & Hu, Junlei & Kim, Eun-Seok, 2017. "Robust and Pareto optimality of insurance contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(2), pages 720-732.
  79. Damiano Rossello, 2022. "Performance measurement with expectiles," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 45(1), pages 343-374, June.
  80. Wang, Ruodu & Ziegel, Johanna F., 2015. "Elicitable distortion risk measures: A concise proof," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 172-175.
  81. Santos, Douglas G. & Candido, Osvaldo & Tófoli, Paula V., 2022. "Forecasting risk measures using intraday and overnight information," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  82. Jonathan Berrisch & Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2022. "High-Resolution Peak Demand Estimation Using Generalized Additive Models and Deep Neural Networks," Papers 2203.03342, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
  83. Taylor, James W., 2021. "Evaluating quantile-bounded and expectile-bounded interval forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 800-811.
  84. Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2023. "Multivariate Probabilistic CRPS Learning with an Application to Day-Ahead Electricity Prices," Papers 2303.10019, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
  85. Martin, Gael M. & Loaiza-Maya, Rubén & Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Frazier, David T. & Ramírez-Hassan, Andrés, 2022. "Optimal probabilistic forecasts: When do they work?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 384-406.
  86. Yang, Dazhi & Gu, Yizhan & Mayer, Martin János & Gueymard, Christian A. & Wang, Wenting & Kleissl, Jan & Li, Mengying & Chu, Yinghao & Bright, Jamie M., 2024. "Regime-dependent 1-min irradiance separation model with climatology clustering," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
  87. Tobias Fissler & Michael Merz & Mario V. Wuthrich, 2021. "Deep Quantile and Deep Composite Model Regression," Papers 2112.03075, arXiv.org.
  88. Marie Kratz & Yen H Lok & Alexander J Mcneil, 2016. "Multinomial var backtests: A simple implicit approach to backtesting expected shortfall," Working Papers hal-01424279, HAL.
  89. Ruodu Wang & Yunran Wei, 2020. "Risk functionals with convex level sets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1337-1367, October.
  90. Yanwei Jia & Jussi Keppo & Ville Satopää, 2023. "Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2713-2732, May.
  91. Klaus Herrmann & Marius Hofert & Melina Mailhot, 2017. "Multivariate Geometric Expectiles," Papers 1704.01503, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
  92. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent & Gutiérrez, Luis Antonio García & Bright, Jamie M. & Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Benchmarks for solar radiation time series forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 747-762.
  93. Paul Embrechts & Tiantian Mao & Qiuqi Wang & Ruodu Wang, 2021. "Bayes risk, elicitability, and the Expected Shortfall," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1190-1217, October.
  94. Simon Hirsch & Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Online Distributional Regression," Papers 2407.08750, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
  95. Hoga, Yannick, 2021. "The uncertainty in extreme risk forecasts from covariate-augmented volatility models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 675-686.
  96. Samuel Drapeau & Mekonnen Tadese, 2019. "Relative Bound and Asymptotic Comparison of Expectile with Respect to Expected Shortfall," Papers 1906.09729, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
  97. Sander Barendse & Erik Kole & Dick van Dijk, 2023. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall in the Presence of Estimation Error," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 528-568.
  98. Adil Rengim Cetingoz & Jean-David Fermanian & Olivier Gu'eant, 2022. "Risk Budgeting Portfolios: Existence and Computation," Papers 2211.07212, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
  99. Rafael Frongillo, 2022. "Quantum Information Elicitation," Papers 2203.07469, arXiv.org.
  100. Fortin, Alain-Philippe & Simonato, Jean-Guy & Dionne, Georges, 2023. "Forecasting expected shortfall: Should we use a multivariate model for stock market factors?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 314-331.
  101. Daouia, Abdelaati & Stupfler, Gilles & Usseglio-Carleve, Antoine, 2023. "An expectile computation cookbook," TSE Working Papers 23-1458, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  102. Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman, 2016. "Grouped functional time series forecasting: An application to age-specific mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  103. Freddy Delbaen & Fabio Bellini & Valeria Bignozzi & Johanna F. Ziegel, 2014. "Risk measures with the CxLS property," Papers 1411.0426, arXiv.org.
  104. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  105. Correndo, Adrian A. & Hefley, Trevor J. & Holzworth, Dean P. & Ciampitti, Ignacio A., 2021. "Revisiting linear regression to test agreement in continuous predicted-observed datasets," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
  106. Alexander Henzi & Johanna F. Ziegel & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Isotonic distributional regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 83(5), pages 963-993, November.
  107. Said Khalil, 2022. "Expectile-based capital allocation," Working Papers hal-03816525, HAL.
  108. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kim, Minjoo & Zhao, Yang, 2017. "Relation between higher order comoments and dependence structure of equity portfolio," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 101-120.
  109. Gordy, Michael B. & McNeil, Alexander J., 2020. "Spectral backtests of forecast distributions with application to risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  110. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2014. "Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 48-68, January.
  111. Francq, Christian & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2020. "Virtual Historical Simulation for estimating the conditional VaR of large portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 356-380.
  112. Patrick Schmidt & Matthias Katzfuss & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 728-743, September.
  113. Fritzsch, Simon & Timphus, Maike & Weiß, Gregor, 2024. "Marginals versus copulas: Which account for more model risk in multivariate risk forecasting?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  114. Augustin Kelava & Pascal Kilian & Judith Glaesser & Samuel Merk & Holger Brandt, 2022. "Forecasting Intra-individual Changes of Affective States Taking into Account Inter-individual Differences Using Intensive Longitudinal Data from a University Student Dropout Study in Math," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 533-558, June.
  115. Dean Fantazzini & Stephan Zimin, 2020. "A multivariate approach for the simultaneous modelling of market risk and credit risk for cryptocurrencies," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(1), pages 19-69, March.
  116. Di Bernardino, Elena & Laloë, Thomas & Pakzad, Cambyse, 2024. "Estimation of extreme multivariate expectiles with functional covariates," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
  117. Tao Hu & Baosheng Liang, 2021. "A New Class of Estimators Based on a General Relative Loss Function," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-19, May.
  118. Diks, Cees & Fang, Hao, 2020. "Comparing density forecasts in a risk management context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 531-551.
  119. Tadese, Mekonnen & Drapeau, Samuel, 2020. "Relative bound and asymptotic comparison of expectile with respect to expected shortfall," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 387-399.
  120. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2016. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1056-1072, October.
  121. Girard, Stéphane & Stupfler, Gilles & Usseglio-Carleve, Antoine, 2022. "Functional estimation of extreme conditional expectiles," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 131-158.
  122. Maria Victoria Ibañez & Marina Martínez-Garcia & Amelia Simó, 2021. "A Review of Spatiotemporal Models for Count Data in R Packages. A Case Study of COVID-19 Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-23, July.
  123. Daouia, Abdelaati & Padoan, Simone A. & Stupfler, Gilles, 2023. "Extreme expectile estimation for short-tailed data, with an application to market risk assessment," TSE Working Papers 23-1414, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised May 2024.
  124. Vasiliy Zubakin & Oleg Kosorukov & Nikita Moiseev, 2015. "Improvement of Regression Forecasting Models," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(6), pages 344-344, June.
  125. Takashi Isogai, 2015. "An Empirical Study of the Dynamic Correlation of Japanese Stock Returns," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-7, Bank of Japan.
  126. Bernardi, Mauro & Bignozzi, Valeria & Petrella, Lea, 2017. "On the Lp-quantiles for the Student t distribution," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 77-83.
  127. Chao Wang & Qian Chen & Richard Gerlach, 2017. "Bayesian Realized-GARCH Models for Financial Tail Risk Forecasting Incorporating Two-sided Weibull Distribution," Papers 1707.03715, arXiv.org.
  128. Arthur Charpentier & Emmanuel Flachaire & Antoine Ly, 2017. "Econom\'etrie et Machine Learning," Papers 1708.06992, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
  129. Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2020. "The Murphy Decomposition and the Calibration-Resolution Principle: A New Perspective on Forecast Evaluation," Papers 2005.01835, arXiv.org.
  130. Araichi, Sawssen & Peretti, Christian de & Belkacem, Lotfi, 2017. "Reserve modelling and the aggregation of risks using time varying copula models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 149-158.
  131. Jakobsons Edgars, 2016. "Scenario aggregation method for portfolio expectile optimization," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 33(1-2), pages 51-65, September.
  132. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
  133. Bayer, Sebastian, 2018. "Combining Value-at-Risk forecasts using penalized quantile regressions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 56-77.
  134. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kim, Minjoo & Zhao, Yang, 2015. "US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-78, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  135. Vica Tendenan & Richard Gerlach & Chao Wang, 2020. "Tail risk forecasting using Bayesian realized EGARCH models," Papers 2008.05147, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
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