Can Groups Improve Expert Economic and Financial Forecasts?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- A.M. Hanea & M.F. McBride & M.A. Burgman & B.C. Wintle, 2018. "Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol for structured expert judgement," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 417-433, April.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015.
"Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative,"
Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2014. "Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative," MPRA Paper 53579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hafer, R W & Hein, Scott E & MacDonald, S Scott, 1992. "Market and Survey Forecasts of the Three-Month Treasury-Bill Rate," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 123-138, January.
- Felipe Labbe & Hamish Pepper, 2009. "Assessing recent external forecasts," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 19-25, December.
- Chris Tofallis, 2015. "A better measure of relative prediction accuracy for model selection and model estimation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(8), pages 1352-1362, August.
- Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin, 2017. "Beating the Simple Average: Egalitarian LASSO for Combining Economic Forecasts," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 20 Aug 2017.
- Mark A Burgman & Marissa McBride & Raquel Ashton & Andrew Speirs-Bridge & Louisa Flander & Bonnie Wintle & Fiona Fidler & Libby Rumpff & Charles Twardy, 2011. "Expert Status and Performance," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(7), pages 1-7, July.
- Dan S. Rickman, 2017. "Regional Science Research and the Practice of Regional Economic Forecasting: Less Is Not More," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Randall Jackson & Peter Schaeffer (ed.), Regional Research Frontiers - Vol. 1, chapter 0, pages 135-149, Springer.
- Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006.
"Another look at measures of forecast accuracy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Anne B. Koehler, 2005. "Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Campbell R Harvey & Yan Liu, 2018. "Detecting Repeatable Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2499-2552.
- Bathcelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1990. "Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 3-10.
- Chris Tofallis, 2015. "A better measure of relative prediction accuracy for model selection and model estimation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(3), pages 524-524, March.
- Félix, Luiz & Kräussl, Roman & Stork, Philip, 2018. "Predictable biases in macroeconomic forecasts and their impact across asset classes," CFS Working Paper Series 596, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Rahman A. Prasojo & Karunika Diwyacitta & Suwarno & Harry Gumilang, 2017. "Transformer Paper Expected Life Estimation Using ANFIS Based on Oil Characteristics and Dissolved Gases (Case Study: Indonesian Transformers)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, August.
- Kim, Sungil & Kim, Heeyoung, 2016. "A new metric of absolute percentage error for intermittent demand forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 669-679.
- Wen, Xin & Jaxa-Rozen, Marc & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2022. "Accuracy indicators for evaluating retrospective performance of energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
- Theocharides, Spyros & Makrides, George & Livera, Andreas & Theristis, Marios & Kaimakis, Paris & Georghiou, George E., 2020. "Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
- Perazzini, Selene & Metulini, Rodolfo & Carpita, Maurizio, 2023. "Integration of flows and signals data from mobile phone network for statistical analyses of traffic in a flooding risk area," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
- Colin Singleton & Peter Grindrod, 2021. "Forecasting for Battery Storage: Choosing the Error Metric," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-11, October.
- Serrecchia, Michela, 2024. "Analysis of Internet development and internal digital divide by using the “.it” domain names as an indicator: Evidence from Italy," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(10).
- Rodolfo Metulini & Maurizio Carpita, 2024. "Modeling and forecasting traffic flows with mobile phone big data in flooding risk areas to support a data-driven decision making," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 342(3), pages 1629-1654, November.
- Man Sing Wong & Tingneng Wang & Hung Chak Ho & Coco Y. T. Kwok & Keru Lu & Sawaid Abbas, 2018. "Towards a Smart City: Development and Application of an Improved Integrated Environmental Monitoring System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, February.
- Hüttner, Amelie & Scherer, Matthias & Gräler, Benedikt, 2020. "Geostatistical modeling of dependent credit spreads: Estimation of large covariance matrices and imputation of missing data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
- Larissa Koupriouchina & Jean-Pierre van der Rest & Zvi Schwartz, 2023. "Judgmental Adjustments of Algorithmic Hotel Occupancy Forecasts: Does User Override Frequency Impact Accuracy at Different Time Horizons?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(8), pages 2143-2164, December.
- Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- Huber, Jakob & Stuckenschmidt, Heiner, 2020. "Daily retail demand forecasting using machine learning with emphasis on calendric special days," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1420-1438.
- Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- Vasile Brătian & Ana-Maria Acu & Camelia Oprean-Stan & Emil Dinga & Gabriela-Mariana Ionescu, 2021. "Efficient or Fractal Market Hypothesis? A Stock Indexes Modelling Using Geometric Brownian Motion and Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-20, November.
- Stetco, Adrian & Dinmohammadi, Fateme & Zhao, Xingyu & Robu, Valentin & Flynn, David & Barnes, Mike & Keane, John & Nenadic, Goran, 2019. "Machine learning methods for wind turbine condition monitoring: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 620-635.
- Tuttle, Jacob F. & Blackburn, Landen D. & Andersson, Klas & Powell, Kody M., 2021. "A systematic comparison of machine learning methods for modeling of dynamic processes applied to combustion emission rate modeling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
- Marijana Zekić-Sušac & Marinela Knežević & Rudolf Scitovski, 2021. "Modeling the cost of energy in public sector buildings by linear regression and deep learning," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 29(1), pages 307-322, March.
- Anca M. Hanea & Marissa F. McBride & Mark A. Burgman & Bonnie C. Wintle, 2018. "The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1781-1794, September.
- Paolo Berta & Paolo Paruolo & Stefano Verzillo & Pietro Giorgio Lovaglio, 2020. "A bivariate prediction approach for adapting the health care system response to the spread of COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, October.
More about this item
Keywords
economic forecasting; expert opinion; economic survey; macroeconomics;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:4:y:2022:i:3:p:38-716:d:878584. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.