IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmvana/v184y2021ics0047259x21000361.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Semi-parametric estimation of multivariate extreme expectiles

Author

Listed:
  • Beck, Nicholas
  • Di Bernardino, Elena
  • Mailhot, Mélina

Abstract

This paper focuses on semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels of risk. Multivariate expectiles and their extremes have been the focus of plentiful research in recent years. In particular, it has been noted that due to the difficulty in estimating these values for elevated levels of risk, an alternative formulation of the underlying optimization problem would be necessary. However, in such a scenario, estimators have only been provided for the limiting cases of tail dependence: independence and comonotonicity. In this paper, we extend the estimation of multivariate extreme expectiles (MEEs) by providing a consistent estimation scheme for random vectors with any arbitrary dependence structure. Specifically, we show that if the upper tail dependence function, tail index, and tail ratio can be consistently estimated, then one would be able to accurately estimate MEEs. The finite-sample performance of this methodology is illustrated using both simulated and real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Beck, Nicholas & Di Bernardino, Elena & Mailhot, Mélina, 2021. "Semi-parametric estimation of multivariate extreme expectiles," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:184:y:2021:i:c:s0047259x21000361
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2021.104758
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047259X21000361
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmva.2021.104758?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laniado Rodas, Henry, 2015. "A Directional Multivariate Value at Risk," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1501, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Riedel, Frank, 2004. "Dynamic coherent risk measures," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 185-200, August.
    3. Véronique Maume-Deschamps & Didier Rullière & Khalil Said, 2017. "Impact of Dependence on Some Multivariate Risk Indicators," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 395-427, June.
    4. Alfred Galichon & Ivar Ekeland & Marc Henry, 2009. "Comonotonic measures of multivariates risks," Working Papers hal-00401828, HAL.
    5. Rafael Schmidt & Ulrich Stadtmüller, 2006. "Non‐parametric Estimation of Tail Dependence," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 33(2), pages 307-335, June.
    6. Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
    7. Torres, Raúl & Lillo, Rosa E. & Laniado, Henry, 2015. "A directional multivariate value at risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 111-123.
    8. Juan-Juan Cai & John H. J. Einmahl & Laurens Haan & Chen Zhou, 2015. "Estimation of the marginal expected shortfall: the mean when a related variable is extreme," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 77(2), pages 417-442, March.
    9. Elena Di Bernardino & Clémentine Prieur, 2018. "Estimation of the multivariate conditional tail expectation for extreme risk levels: Illustration on environmental data sets," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), November.
    10. Gardes, Laurent & Girard, Stéphane & Lekina, Alexandre, 2010. "Functional nonparametric estimation of conditional extreme quantiles," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 419-433, February.
    11. Acerbi, Carlo & Tasche, Dirk, 2002. "On the coherence of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1487-1503, July.
    12. Johanna F. Ziegel, 2016. "Coherence And Elicitability," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 901-918, October.
    13. A. Cuberos & E. Masiello & V. Maume-Deschamps, 2020. "Copulas checker-type approximations: Application to quantiles estimation of sums of dependent random variables," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(12), pages 3044-3062, June.
    14. Yamai, Yasuhiro & Yoshiba, Toshinao, 2005. "Value-at-risk versus expected shortfall: A practical perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 997-1015, April.
    15. Véronique Maume-Deschamps & Didier Rullière & Khalil Said, 2017. "Multivariate extensions of expectiles risk measures," Post-Print hal-01478930, HAL.
    16. Embrechts, Paul & Puccetti, Giovanni, 2006. "Bounds for functions of multivariate risks," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 526-547, February.
    17. Fabio Bellini & Elena Di Bernardino, 2017. "Risk management with expectiles," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 487-506, May.
    18. Maume-Deschamps Véronique & Rullière Didier & Said Khalil, 2017. "Multivariate extensions of expectiles risk measures," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 20-44, January.
    19. Hélène Cossette & Mélina Mailhot & Étienne Marceau & Mhamed Mesfioui, 2016. "Vector-Valued Tail Value-at-Risk and Capital Allocation," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 653-674, September.
    20. Areski Cousin & Elena Di Bernadino, 2013. "On Multivariate Extensions of Value-at-Risk," Working Papers hal-00638382, HAL.
    21. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5rkqqmvrn4tl22s9mc4b1h6b4 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    23. Carlo Acerbi & Dirk Tasche, 2002. "Expected Shortfall: A Natural Coherent Alternative to Value at Risk," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 31(2), pages 379-388, July.
    24. Areski Cousin & Elena Di Bernadino, 2011. "On Multivariate Extensions of Value-at-Risk," Papers 1111.1349, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    25. Herrmann, Klaus & Hofert, Marius & Mailhot, Mélina, 2020. "Multivariate Geometric Tail- And Range-Value-At-Risk," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 265-292, January.
    26. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2278 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Elena Di Bernardino & Thomas Laloë & Véronique Maume-Deschamps & Clémentine Prieur, 2013. "Plug-in estimation of level sets in a non-compact setting with applications in multivariate risk theory," Post-Print hal-00580624, HAL.
    28. Kiriliouk, Anna & Segers, Johan & Tafakori, Laleh, 2018. "An estimator of the stable tail dependence function based on the empirical beta copula," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2018029, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    29. Chaouch, Mohamed & Goga, Camelia, 2010. "Design-based estimation for geometric quantiles with application to outlier detection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(10), pages 2214-2229, October.
    30. Cousin, Areski & Di Bernardino, Elena, 2013. "On multivariate extensions of Value-at-Risk," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 32-46.
    31. Maume-Deschamps Véronique & Rullière Didier & Said Khalil, 2018. "Extremes for multivariate expectiles," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 35(3-4), pages 111-140, July.
    32. Klaus Herrmann & Marius Hofert & Melina Mailhot, 2017. "Multivariate Geometric Expectiles," Papers 1704.01503, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    33. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5rkqqmvrn4tl22s9mc4b1h6b4 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Abdelaati Daouia & Stéphane Girard & Gilles Stupfler, 2018. "Estimation of tail risk based on extreme expectiles," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 80(2), pages 263-292, March.
    35. Daouia, Abdelaati & Gardes, Laurent & Girard, Stephane, 2011. "On kernel smoothing for extremal quantile regression," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011031, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    36. Fabio Bellini & Valeria Bignozzi, 2015. "On elicitable risk measures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 725-733, May.
    37. Newey, Whitney K & Powell, James L, 1987. "Asymmetric Least Squares Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 819-847, July.
    38. Ra'ul Torres & Rosa E. Lillo & Henry Laniado, 2015. "A Directional Multivariate Value at Risk," Papers 1502.00908, arXiv.org.
    39. Yamai, Yasuhiro & Yoshiba, Toshinao, 2002. "On the Validity of Value-at-Risk: Comparative Analyses with Expected Shortfall," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(1), pages 57-85, January.
    40. Gardes, Laurent & Girard, Stéphane, 2015. "Nonparametric estimation of the conditional tail copula," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1-16.
    41. Laniado Rodas, Henry, 2010. "Multivariate extremality measure," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws101908, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    42. Bellini, Fabio & Klar, Bernhard & Müller, Alfred & Rosazza Gianin, Emanuela, 2014. "Generalized quantiles as risk measures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 41-48.
    43. Véronique Maume-Deschamps & Didier Rullière & Khalil Said, 2017. "Multivariate Extensions Of Expectiles Risk Measures," Working Papers hal-01367277, HAL.
    44. Kiriliouk, Anna & Segers, Johan & Tafakori, Laleh, 2018. "An estimator of the stable tail dependence function based on the empirical beta copula," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2018033, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Di Bernardino, Elena & Laloë, Thomas & Pakzad, Cambyse, 2024. "Estimation of extreme multivariate expectiles with functional covariates," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klaus Herrmann & Marius Hofert & Melina Mailhot, 2017. "Multivariate Geometric Expectiles," Papers 1704.01503, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    2. Matthias Fischer & Thorsten Moser & Marius Pfeuffer, 2018. "A Discussion on Recent Risk Measures with Application to Credit Risk: Calculating Risk Contributions and Identifying Risk Concentrations," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-28, December.
    3. Maziar Sahamkhadam, 2021. "Dynamic copula-based expectile portfolios," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(3), pages 209-223, May.
    4. James Ming Chen, 2018. "On Exactitude in Financial Regulation: Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and Expectiles," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, June.
    5. Mohammedi, Mustapha & Bouzebda, Salim & Laksaci, Ali, 2021. "The consistency and asymptotic normality of the kernel type expectile regression estimator for functional data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    6. Said Khalil, 2022. "Expectile-based capital allocation," Working Papers hal-03816525, HAL.
    7. Di Bernardino, Elena & Laloë, Thomas & Pakzad, Cambyse, 2024. "Estimation of extreme multivariate expectiles with functional covariates," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    8. Véronique Maume-Deschamps & Didier Rullière & Khalil Said, 2017. "Multivariate Extensions Of Expectiles Risk Measures," Working Papers hal-01367277, HAL.
    9. Tadese, Mekonnen & Drapeau, Samuel, 2020. "Relative bound and asymptotic comparison of expectile with respect to expected shortfall," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 387-399.
    10. Maume-Deschamps Véronique & Rullière Didier & Said Khalil, 2017. "Multivariate extensions of expectiles risk measures," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 20-44, January.
    11. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Paulo Sergio Ceretta, 2015. "Shortfall Deviation Risk: An alternative to risk measurement," Papers 1501.02007, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    12. Sordo, Miguel A., 2016. "A multivariate extension of the increasing convex order to compare risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 224-230.
    13. Bingzhen Geng & Yang Liu & Yimiao Zhao, 2024. "Value-at-Risk- and Expectile-based Systemic Risk Measures and Second-order Asymptotics: With Applications to Diversification," Papers 2404.18029, arXiv.org.
    14. Stéphane Girard & Gilles Stupfler & Antoine Usseglio‐Carleve, 2022. "Nonparametric extreme conditional expectile estimation," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 49(1), pages 78-115, March.
    15. Del Brio, Esther B. & Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Perote, Javier, 2020. "Risk quantification for commodity ETFs: Backtesting value-at-risk and expected shortfall," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Shushi, Tomer & Yao, Jing, 2020. "Multivariate risk measures based on conditional expectation and systemic risk for Exponential Dispersion Models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 178-186.
    17. Daouia, Abdelaati & Girard, Stéphane & Stupfler, Gilles, 2018. "Tail expectile process and risk assessment," TSE Working Papers 18-944, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    18. Daouia, Abdelaati & Girard, Stéphane & Stupfler, Gilles, 2017. "Extreme M-quantiles as risk measures: From L1 to Lp optimization," TSE Working Papers 17-841, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    19. Daouia, Abdelaati & Padoan, Simone A. & Stupfler, Gilles, 2023. "Extreme expectile estimation for short-tailed data, with an application to market risk assessment," TSE Working Papers 23-1414, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised May 2024.
    20. Daouia, Abdelaati & Girard, Stéphane & Stupfler, Gilles, 2021. "ExpectHill estimation, extreme risk and heavy tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 97-117.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:184:y:2021:i:c:s0047259x21000361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622892/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.