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A Bayesian approach for more reliable tail risk forecasts

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  • Li, Dan
  • Clements, Adam
  • Drovandi, Christopher

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that existing quantile regression models used for jointly forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are sensitive to initial conditions. Given the importance of these measures in financial systems, this sensitivity is a critical issue. A new Bayesian quantile regression approach is proposed for estimating joint VaR and ES models. By treating the initial values as unknown parameters, sensitivity issues can be dealt with. Furthermore, new additive-type models are developed for the ES component that are more robust to initial conditions. A novel approach using the open-faced sandwich (OFS) method is proposed which improves uncertainty quantification in risk forecasts. Simulation and empirical results highlight the improvements in risk forecasts ensuing from the proposed methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Dan & Clements, Adam & Drovandi, Christopher, 2023. "A Bayesian approach for more reliable tail risk forecasts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:64:y:2023:i:c:s157230892200119x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2022.101098
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