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Properization: constructing proper scoring rules via Bayes acts

Author

Listed:
  • Jonas R. Brehmer

    (University of Mannheim)

  • Tilmann Gneiting

    (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
    Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies)

Abstract

Scoring rules serve to quantify predictive performance. A scoring rule is proper if truth telling is an optimal strategy in expectation. Subject to customary regularity conditions, every scoring rule can be made proper, by applying a special case of the Bayes act construction studied by Grünwald and Dawid (Ann Stat 32:1367–1433, 2004) and Dawid (Ann Inst Stat Math 59:77–93, 2007), to which we refer as properization. We discuss examples from the recent literature and apply the construction to create new types, and reinterpret existing forms, of proper scoring rules and consistent scoring functions. In an abstract setting, we formulate sufficient conditions under which Bayes acts exist and scoring rules can be made proper.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonas R. Brehmer & Tilmann Gneiting, 2020. "Properization: constructing proper scoring rules via Bayes acts," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 72(3), pages 659-673, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:aistmt:v:72:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10463-019-00705-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10463-019-00705-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Werner Ehm & Tilmann Gneiting & Alexander Jordan & Fabian Krüger, 2016. "Of quantiles and expectiles: consistent scoring functions, Choquet representations and forecast rankings," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(3), pages 505-562, June.
    2. Petra Friederichs & Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, 2012. "Forecast verification for extreme value distributions with an application to probabilistic peak wind prediction," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 579-594, November.
    3. Tilmann Gneiting & Roopesh Ranjan, 2011. "Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 411-422, July.
    4. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2018. "The M4 Competition: Results, findings, conclusion and way forward," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 802-808.
    5. A. Dawid, 2007. "The geometry of proper scoring rules," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 59(1), pages 77-93, March.
    6. repec:hal:journl:peer-00834423 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 746-762.
    8. Alexander Dawid & Monica Musio, 2014. "Theory and applications of proper scoring rules," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 72(2), pages 169-183, August.
    9. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2011. "Likelihood-based scoring rules for comparing density forecasts in tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 215-230, August.
    10. Granger, Clive W.J. & Machina, Mark J., 2006. "Forecasting and Decision Theory," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 81-98, Elsevier.
    11. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
    12. Gneiting, Tilmann & Ranjan, Roopesh, 2011. "Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(3), pages 411-422.
    13. Charalambos D. Aliprantis & Kim C. Border, 2006. "Infinite Dimensional Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, edition 0, number 978-3-540-29587-7, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yannick Hoga & Timo Dimitriadis, 2021. "On Testing Equal Conditional Predictive Ability Under Measurement Error," Papers 2106.11104, arXiv.org.

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