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A Two‐Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration

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  1. Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rogalla, Ralph & Siegelin, Ivonne, 2016. "Accounting and actuarial smoothing of retirement payouts in participating life annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 268-283.
  2. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin & Coughlan, Guy D. & Epstein, David & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa, 2011. "Mortality density forecasts: An analysis of six stochastic mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 355-367, May.
  3. Karabey, Uǧur & Kleinow, Torsten & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2014. "Factor risk quantification in annuity models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-45.
  4. Chen, Hua & MacMinn, Richard & Sun, Tao, 2015. "Multi-population mortality models: A factor copula approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 135-146.
  5. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Søren Kjærgaard & James E. Oeppen & James W. Vaupel, 2019. "The impact of the choice of life table statistics when forecasting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(43), pages 1235-1268.
  6. Ronkainen, Vesa, 2012. "Stochastic modeling of financing longevity risk in pension insurance," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_044, July.
  7. Shao, Adam W. & Hanewald, Katja & Sherris, Michael, 2015. "Reverse mortgage pricing and risk analysis allowing for idiosyncratic house price risk and longevity risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 76-90.
  8. Yajing Xu & Michael Sherris & Jonathan Ziveyi, 2020. "Market Price of Longevity Risk for a Multi‐Cohort Mortality Model With Application to Longevity Bond Option Pricing," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(3), pages 571-595, September.
  9. Nolde, Natalia & Parker, Gary, 2014. "Stochastic analysis of life insurance surplus," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-13.
  10. Broeders, Dirk & Mehlkopf, Roel & van Ool, Annick, 2021. "The economics of sharing macro-longevity risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 440-458.
  11. Plat, Richard, 2009. "On stochastic mortality modeling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 393-404, December.
  12. Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2013. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 261-283, February.
  13. Plat, Richard, 2009. "Stochastic portfolio specific mortality and the quantification of mortality basis risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 123-132, August.
  14. Han Lin Shang & Steven Haberman, 2020. "Retiree Mortality Forecasting: A Partial Age-Range or a Full Age-Range Model?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-11, July.
  15. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
  16. Dushi, Irena & Friedberg, Leora & Webb, Tony, 2010. "The impact of aggregate mortality risk on defined benefit pension plans," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 481-503, October.
  17. Michel Denuit, 2009. "Life Anuities with Stochastic Survival Probabilities: A Review," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 463-489, September.
  18. Anastasia Novokreshchenova, 2016. "Predicting Human Mortality: Quantitative Evaluation of Four Stochastic Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-28, December.
  19. Jr-Wei Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Chuang-Chang Chang, 2021. "Modeling Housing Price Dynamics and their Impact on the Cost of no-Negative-Equity-Guarantees for Equity Releasing Products," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 249-279, August.
  20. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven, 2017. "Grouped multivariate and functional time series forecasting:An application to annuity pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 166-179.
  21. Luca De Mori & Pietro Millossovich & Rui Zhu & Steven Haberman, 2024. "Two-Population Mortality Forecasting: An Approach Based on Model Averaging," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, March.
  22. D’Amato, Valeria & Di Lorenzo, Emilia & Haberman, Steven & Sagoo, Pretty & Sibillo, Marilena, 2018. "De-risking strategy: Longevity spread buy-in," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 124-136.
  23. Wong, Jackie S.T. & Forster, Jonathan J. & Smith, Peter W.F., 2018. "Bayesian mortality forecasting with overdispersion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 206-221.
  24. Bravo, Jorge M. & Ayuso, Mercedes & Holzmann, Robert & Palmer, Edward, 2021. "Addressing the life expectancy gap in pension policy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 200-221.
  25. Hainaut, Donatien, 2022. "A calendar year mortality model in continuous time," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2022019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
  26. Blake, David, 2009. "NDC v FDC: Pros, cons and replication," MPRA Paper 33752, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Wang, Ting & Young, Virginia R., 2016. "Hedging pure endowments with mortality derivatives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 238-255.
  28. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Liu, Yanxin & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2023. "Hedging longevity risk under non-Gaussian state-space stochastic mortality models: A mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 96-121.
  29. Selin Ozen & c{S}ule c{S}ahin, 2021. "A Two-Population Mortality Model to Assess Longevity Basis Risk," Papers 2101.06690, arXiv.org.
  30. Boyer, M. Martin & Stentoft, Lars, 2013. "If we can simulate it, we can insure it: An application to longevity risk management," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 35-45.
  31. Jevtić, Petar & Luciano, Elisa & Vigna, Elena, 2013. "Mortality surface by means of continuous time cohort models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 122-133.
  32. MacMinn Richard & Wang Jennifer & Blake David, 2008. "Longevity Risk and Capital Markets: The 2007-2008 Update," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-6, September.
  33. Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Ralph Rogalla & Vasily Kartashov, 2013. "Lifecycle Portfolio Choice With Systematic Longevity Risk and Variable Investment—Linked Deferred Annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 649-676, September.
  34. Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gouriéroux, 2011. "Approximate Derivative Pricing for Large Classes of Homogeneous Assets with Systematic Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 237-280, Spring.
  35. Bauer, Daniel & Börger, Matthias & Ruß, Jochen, 2010. "On the pricing of longevity-linked securities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 139-149, February.
  36. Bisetti, Emilio & Favero, Carlo A. & Nocera, Giacomo & Tebaldi, Claudio, 2017. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation with Longevity Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 2251-2275, October.
  37. Bauer, Daniel & Weber, Frederik, 2007. "Assessing Investment and Longevity Risks within Immediate Annuities," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 1982, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
  38. Emilio Bisetti & Carlo Favero, 2014. "Measuring the Impact of Longevity Risk on Pension Systems: The Case of Italy," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 87-103.
  39. Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene & Søgaard Laursen, Nicolai, 2024. "Longevity hedge effectiveness using socioeconomic indices," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 242-251.
  40. Han Li & Colin O’Hare, 2019. "Mortality Forecasting: How Far Back Should We Look in Time?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, February.
  41. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Liu, Yanxin, 2021. "Recent declines in life expectancy: Implication on longevity risk hedging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 376-394.
  42. Huang, H. & Milevsky, M.A. & Salisbury, T.S., 2017. "Retirement spending and biological age," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 58-76.
  43. Bruszas, Sandy & Kaschützke, Barbara & Maurer, Raimond & Siegelin, Ivonne, 2018. "Unisex pricing of German participating life annuities—Boon or bane for customer and insurance company?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 230-245.
  44. Bravo, Jorge Miguel & El Mekkaoui de Freitas, Najat, 2018. "Valuation of longevity-linked life annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 212-229.
  45. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
  46. Goecke, Oskar, 2018. "Resilience and Intergenerational Fairness in Collective Defined Contribution Pension Funds," Forschung am ivwKöln 7/2018, Technische Hochschule Köln – University of Applied Sciences, Institute for Insurance Studies.
  47. Anja De Waegenaere & Bertrand Melenberg & Ralph Stevens, 2010. "Longevity Risk," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 151-192, June.
  48. Meyricke, Ramona & Sherris, Michael, 2014. "Longevity risk, cost of capital and hedging for life insurers under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 147-155.
  49. Huang, Fei & Maller, Ross & Ning, Xu, 2020. "Modelling life tables with advanced ages: An extreme value theory approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 95-115.
  50. Zhou, Hongjuan & Zhou, Kenneth Q. & Li, Xianping, 2022. "Stochastic mortality dynamics driven by mixed fractional Brownian motion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 218-238.
  51. Leung, Melvern & Li, Youwei & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Vigne, Samuel A., 2021. "Bayesian Value-at-Risk backtesting: The case of annuity pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(2), pages 786-801.
  52. Liu, Yanxin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2018. "A strategy for hedging risks associated with period and cohort effects using q-forwards," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 267-285.
  53. Li, Han & O’Hare, Colin, 2017. "Semi-parametric extensions of the Cairns–Blake–Dowd model: A one-dimensional kernel smoothing approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 166-176.
  54. Sitong Yang & Shouwei Li & Xue Rui & Tianxiang Zhao, 2024. "The impact of climate risk on the asset side and liability side of the insurance industry: evidence from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-51, June.
  55. Lenny Stoeldraijer & Coen van Duin & Leo van Wissen & Fanny Janssen, 2013. "Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(13), pages 323-354.
  56. Ayuso, Mercedes & Bravo, Jorge M. & Holzmann, Robert, 2021. "Getting life expectancy estimates right for pension policy: period versus cohort approach," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 212-231, April.
  57. Man Chung Fung & Katja Ignatieva & Michael Sherris, 2019. "Managing Systematic Mortality Risk in Life Annuities: An Application of Longevity Derivatives," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, January.
  58. Bohm, Thomas & Waldvogel, Felix, 2012. "Etablierung eines außerbörslichen Kapitalmarktes für das Langlebigkeitsrisiko," Bayreuth Working Papers on Finance, Accounting and Taxation (FAcT-Papers) 2012-02, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Finance and Banking.
  59. Ahmadi, Seyed Saeed & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2014. "Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models: A modified time-transformation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 194-221.
  60. Yang, Bowen & Li, Jackie & Balasooriya, Uditha, 2015. "Using bootstrapping to incorporate model error for risk-neutral pricing of longevity risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 16-27.
  61. Liu, Yanxin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2016. "It’s all in the hidden states: A longevity hedging strategy with an explicit measure of population basis risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 301-319.
  62. Huang, Huaxiong & Milevsky, Moshe A. & Salisbury, Thomas S., 2012. "Optimal retirement consumption with a stochastic force of mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 282-291.
  63. Moshe A. Milevsky & Thomas S. Salisbury & Alexander Chigodaev, 2018. "The implied longevity curve: How long does the market think you are going to live?," Papers 1811.09932, arXiv.org.
  64. Matheus R Grasselli & Sebastiano Silla, 2009. "A policyholder's utility indifference valuation model for the guaranteed annuity option," Papers 0908.3196, arXiv.org.
  65. Leung, Melvern & Fung, Man Chung & O’Hare, Colin, 2018. "A comparative study of pricing approaches for longevity instruments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 95-116.
  66. Bayraktar, Erhan & Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S. & Young, Virginia R., 2009. "Valuation of mortality risk via the instantaneous Sharpe ratio: Applications to life annuities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 676-691, March.
  67. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew & Dowd, Kevin, 2008. "Turning pension plans into pension planes: What investment strategy designers of defined contribution pension plans can learn from commercial aircraft designers," MPRA Paper 33749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Søren Kjærgaard & Yunus Emre Ergemen & Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher & Jim Oeppen & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb, 2019. "Longevity forecasting by socio-economic groups using compositional data analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2019-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  69. David Blake & Christophe Courbage & Richard MacMinn & Michael Sherris, 2011. "Longevity Risk and Capital Markets: The 2010–2011 Update," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 36(4), pages 489-500, October.
  70. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2022. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality," SocArXiv 8u34d, Center for Open Science.
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  74. Tsai, Cary Chi-Liang & Cheng, Echo Sihan, 2021. "Incorporating statistical clustering methods into mortality models to improve forecasting performances," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 42-62.
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