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A Stochastic Model for Mortality Rate on Italian Data

Author

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  • R. Giacometti

    (University of Bergamo)

  • S. Ortobelli

    (University of Bergamo)

  • M. Bertocchi

    (University of Bergamo)

Abstract

A new stochastic model for mortality rate is proposed and analyzed on Italian mortality data. The model is based on a stochastic differential equation derived from a generalization of the Milevesky and Promislow model (Milevesky, M.A., Promislow, S.D.: Insur. Math. Econ. 29, 299–318 (2001)). We discuss and present a methodology, based on the discretisation approach by Wymer (Wymer, C.R.: Econometrica 40(3), 565–577 (1972)) to evaluate the parameters of our model. The comparison with the Milevesky and Promislow model shows the relevance of our proposal along an horizon, which includes periods of time with a different volatility of mortality rates. The estimate of the parameters turns out to be stable over time with the exception of the mean reverting parameter, which shows, for a person of a fixed age, an increase over time.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Giacometti & S. Ortobelli & M. Bertocchi, 2011. "A Stochastic Model for Mortality Rate on Italian Data," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 149(1), pages 216-228, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joptap:v:149:y:2011:i:1:d:10.1007_s10957-010-9771-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10957-010-9771-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Biffis, Enrico, 2005. "Affine processes for dynamic mortality and actuarial valuations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 443-468, December.
    2. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Pricing Death: Frameworks for the Valuation and Securitization of Mortality Risk," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 79-120, May.
    3. Wymer, C R, 1972. "Econometric Estimation of Stochastic Differential Equation Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 565-577, May.
    4. Ronald Lee, 2000. "The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 80-91.
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    8. Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two‐Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718, December.
    9. Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S., 2001. "Mortality derivatives and the option to annuitise," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 299-318, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Russo, Vincenzo & Giacometti, Rosella & Ortobelli, Sergio & Rachev, Svetlozar & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2011. "Calibrating affine stochastic mortality models using term assurance premiums," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 53-60, July.

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